High-resolution simulations of the surface mass balance of Greenland at the end of this century

• Main Authors: Krinner, G., Julien, N.
• Other Authors: Laboratoire de glaciologie et géophysique de l'environnement (LGGE), Observatoire des Sciences de l'Univers de Grenoble (OSUG), Université Joseph Fourier - Grenoble 1 (UJF)-Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology (Grenoble INP )-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Institut national de recherche en sciences et technologies pour l'environnement et l'agriculture (IRSTEA)-Université Savoie Mont Blanc (USMB Université de Savoie Université de Chambéry )-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Joseph Fourier - Grenoble 1 (UJF)-Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology (Grenoble INP )-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Institut national de recherche en sciences et technologies pour l'environnement et l'agriculture (IRSTEA)-Université Savoie Mont Blanc (USMB Université de Savoie Université de Chambéry )-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: HAL CCSD 2007
• Subjects: [SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces; environment; [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean; Atmosphere; [SDU.STU]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences; Greenland; Ice Sheet; North Atlantic; The Cryosphere; The Cryosphere Discussions
• Online Access: https://hal.science/hal-00331151; https://hal.science/hal-00331151/document; https://hal.science/hal-00331151/file/tcd-1-351-2007.pdf

International audience We present atmospheric general circulation model simulations of the present (1981–2005) and future (2081–2100) climate according to the SRES A1B greenhouse gas scenario. Focusing on Greenland, we use a stretched grid in the global model, thereby reaching a horizontal grid spacing of 60 km in the region of interest. This allows to capture reasonably the escarpment zone of the ice sheet. For the end of this century, the model suggests a precipitation increase in the central region of Greenland, which is overcompensated for by a strong increase of meltwater production in the lower areas. We calculate the changes of water fluxes into the adjacent seas according the simulated surface mass balances changes. The calculated freshwater flux at the end of the 21st century appears too weak to induce a significant reduction of the meridional overturning circulation in the North Atlantic. The resulting surface mass balance decrease between the last decades of the 20th and 21st centuries is equivalent to a positive contribution of 0.8 mm yr -1 to global eustatic sea-level rise.