Extreme floods of Venice: Characteristics, dynamics, past and future evolution (review article)
Floods in the Venice city centre result from the superposition of several factors: astronomical tides; seiches; and atmospherically forced fluctuations, which include storm surges, meteotsunamis, and surges caused by atmospheric planetary waves. All these factors can contribute to positive water hei...
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ftunivsalento:oai:iris.unisalento.it:11587/463980 2024-04-21T07:52:01+00:00 Extreme floods of Venice: Characteristics, dynamics, past and future evolution (review article) Lionello P. Barriopedro D. Ferrarin C. Nicholls R. J. Orlic M. Raicich F. Reale M. Umgiesser G. Vousdoukas M. Zanchettin D. Lionello, P. Barriopedro, D. Ferrarin, C. Nicholls, R. J. Orlic, M. Raicich, F. Reale, M. Umgiesser, G. Vousdoukas, M. Zanchettin, D. 2021 ELETTRONICO http://hdl.handle.net/11587/463980 https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2705-2021 eng eng volume:21 firstpage:2705 lastpage:2731 numberofpages:27 journal:NATURAL HAZARDS AND EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCES http://hdl.handle.net/11587/463980 doi:10.5194/nhess-21-2705-2021 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/scopus/2-s2.0-85114288680 info:eu-repo/semantics/article 2021 ftunivsalento https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2705-2021 2024-03-28T01:48:36Z Floods in the Venice city centre result from the superposition of several factors: astronomical tides; seiches; and atmospherically forced fluctuations, which include storm surges, meteotsunamis, and surges caused by atmospheric planetary waves. All these factors can contribute to positive water height anomalies individually and can increase the probability of extreme events when they act constructively. The largest extreme water heights are mostly caused by the storm surges produced by the sirocco winds, leading to a characteristic seasonal cycle, with the largest and most frequent events occurring from November to March. Storm surges can be produced by cyclones whose centres are located either north or south of the Alps. Historically, the most intense events have been produced by cyclogenesis in the western Mediterranean, to the west of the main cyclogenetic area of the Mediterranean region in the Gulf of Genoa. Only a small fraction of the inter-annual variability in extreme water heights is described by fluctuations in the dominant patterns of atmospheric circulation variability over the Euro-Atlantic sector. Therefore, decadal fluctuations in water height extremes remain largely unexplained. In particular, the effect of the 11-year solar cycle does not appear to be steadily present if more than 100 years of observations are considered. The historic increase in the frequency of floods since the mid-19th century is explained by relative mean sea level rise. Analogously, future regional relative mean sea level rise will be the most important driver of increasing duration and intensity of Venice floods through this century, overcompensating for the small projected decrease in marine storminess. The future increase in extreme water heights covers a wide range, largely reflecting the highly uncertain mass contributions to future mean sea level rise from the melting of Antarctica and Greenland ice sheets, especially towards the end of the century. For a high-emission scenario (RCP8.5), the magnitude of ... Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctica Greenland Università del Salento: CINECA IRIS Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences 21 8 2705 2731 |
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Università del Salento: CINECA IRIS |
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ftunivsalento |
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English |
description |
Floods in the Venice city centre result from the superposition of several factors: astronomical tides; seiches; and atmospherically forced fluctuations, which include storm surges, meteotsunamis, and surges caused by atmospheric planetary waves. All these factors can contribute to positive water height anomalies individually and can increase the probability of extreme events when they act constructively. The largest extreme water heights are mostly caused by the storm surges produced by the sirocco winds, leading to a characteristic seasonal cycle, with the largest and most frequent events occurring from November to March. Storm surges can be produced by cyclones whose centres are located either north or south of the Alps. Historically, the most intense events have been produced by cyclogenesis in the western Mediterranean, to the west of the main cyclogenetic area of the Mediterranean region in the Gulf of Genoa. Only a small fraction of the inter-annual variability in extreme water heights is described by fluctuations in the dominant patterns of atmospheric circulation variability over the Euro-Atlantic sector. Therefore, decadal fluctuations in water height extremes remain largely unexplained. In particular, the effect of the 11-year solar cycle does not appear to be steadily present if more than 100 years of observations are considered. The historic increase in the frequency of floods since the mid-19th century is explained by relative mean sea level rise. Analogously, future regional relative mean sea level rise will be the most important driver of increasing duration and intensity of Venice floods through this century, overcompensating for the small projected decrease in marine storminess. The future increase in extreme water heights covers a wide range, largely reflecting the highly uncertain mass contributions to future mean sea level rise from the melting of Antarctica and Greenland ice sheets, especially towards the end of the century. For a high-emission scenario (RCP8.5), the magnitude of ... |
author2 |
Lionello, P. Barriopedro, D. Ferrarin, C. Nicholls, R. J. Orlic, M. Raicich, F. Reale, M. Umgiesser, G. Vousdoukas, M. Zanchettin, D. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Lionello P. Barriopedro D. Ferrarin C. Nicholls R. J. Orlic M. Raicich F. Reale M. Umgiesser G. Vousdoukas M. Zanchettin D. |
spellingShingle |
Lionello P. Barriopedro D. Ferrarin C. Nicholls R. J. Orlic M. Raicich F. Reale M. Umgiesser G. Vousdoukas M. Zanchettin D. Extreme floods of Venice: Characteristics, dynamics, past and future evolution (review article) |
author_facet |
Lionello P. Barriopedro D. Ferrarin C. Nicholls R. J. Orlic M. Raicich F. Reale M. Umgiesser G. Vousdoukas M. Zanchettin D. |
author_sort |
Lionello P. |
title |
Extreme floods of Venice: Characteristics, dynamics, past and future evolution (review article) |
title_short |
Extreme floods of Venice: Characteristics, dynamics, past and future evolution (review article) |
title_full |
Extreme floods of Venice: Characteristics, dynamics, past and future evolution (review article) |
title_fullStr |
Extreme floods of Venice: Characteristics, dynamics, past and future evolution (review article) |
title_full_unstemmed |
Extreme floods of Venice: Characteristics, dynamics, past and future evolution (review article) |
title_sort |
extreme floods of venice: characteristics, dynamics, past and future evolution (review article) |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/11587/463980 https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2705-2021 |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctica Greenland |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctica Greenland |
op_relation |
volume:21 firstpage:2705 lastpage:2731 numberofpages:27 journal:NATURAL HAZARDS AND EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCES http://hdl.handle.net/11587/463980 doi:10.5194/nhess-21-2705-2021 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/scopus/2-s2.0-85114288680 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2705-2021 |
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Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences |
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21 |
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8 |
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2705 |
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