Vine copula models for predicting water flow discharge at King George Island, Antarctica
[EN]In order to understand the behavior of the glaciers, their mass balance should be studied. The loss of water produced by melting, known as glacier discharge, is one of the components of this mass balance. In this paper, a vine copula structure is proposed to model the multivariate and nonlinear...
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ftunivsalamanca:oai:gredos.usal.es:10366/146618 2023-05-15T13:59:35+02:00 Vine copula models for predicting water flow discharge at King George Island, Antarctica Gómez, Mario Ausín, M. Concepción Domínguez Alvarez, María Carmen 2018 http://hdl.handle.net/10366/146618 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-018-1599-9 eng eng Springer Link https://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-018-1599-9 Gómez, M., Ausín, M.C. & Domínguez, M.C.(2018) Vine copula models for predicting water flow discharge at King George Island, Antarctica. Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess 32, 2787–2807 . https://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-018-1599-9 1436-3240 http://hdl.handle.net/10366/146618 doi:10.1007/s00477-018-1599-9 1436-3259 Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 Internacional http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/ info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess CC-BY-NC-ND Finite mixtures Glacier discharge Meteorological Prediction Vine copula 12 Matemáticas info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion 2018 ftunivsalamanca https://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-018-1599-9 2022-02-17T21:48:23Z [EN]In order to understand the behavior of the glaciers, their mass balance should be studied. The loss of water produced by melting, known as glacier discharge, is one of the components of this mass balance. In this paper, a vine copula structure is proposed to model the multivariate and nonlinear dependence among the glacier discharge and other related meteorological variables such as temperature, humidity, solar radiation and precipitation. The multivariate distribution of these variables is expressed as a mixture of four components according to the presence or not of positive discharge and/or positive precipitation. Then, each of the four subgroups is modelled with a vine copula. The conditional probability of zero discharge for given meteorological conditions is obtained from the proposed joint distribution. Moreover, the structure of the vine copula allows us to derive the conditional distribution of the glacier discharge for the given meteorological conditions. Three different prediction methods for the values of the discharge are used and compared. The proposed methodology is applied to a large database collected since 2002 by the GLACKMA association from a measurement station located in the King George Island in the Antarctica. Seasonal effects are included by using different parameters for each season. We have found that the proposed vine copula model outperforms a previous work where we only used the temperature to predict the glacier discharge using a time-varying bivariate copula. Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctica King George Island Universidad de Salamanca: Gredos (Gestión del Repositorio Documental de la Universidad de Salamanca) King George Island Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment 32 10 2787 2807 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Universidad de Salamanca: Gredos (Gestión del Repositorio Documental de la Universidad de Salamanca) |
op_collection_id |
ftunivsalamanca |
language |
English |
topic |
Finite mixtures Glacier discharge Meteorological Prediction Vine copula 12 Matemáticas |
spellingShingle |
Finite mixtures Glacier discharge Meteorological Prediction Vine copula 12 Matemáticas Gómez, Mario Ausín, M. Concepción Domínguez Alvarez, María Carmen Vine copula models for predicting water flow discharge at King George Island, Antarctica |
topic_facet |
Finite mixtures Glacier discharge Meteorological Prediction Vine copula 12 Matemáticas |
description |
[EN]In order to understand the behavior of the glaciers, their mass balance should be studied. The loss of water produced by melting, known as glacier discharge, is one of the components of this mass balance. In this paper, a vine copula structure is proposed to model the multivariate and nonlinear dependence among the glacier discharge and other related meteorological variables such as temperature, humidity, solar radiation and precipitation. The multivariate distribution of these variables is expressed as a mixture of four components according to the presence or not of positive discharge and/or positive precipitation. Then, each of the four subgroups is modelled with a vine copula. The conditional probability of zero discharge for given meteorological conditions is obtained from the proposed joint distribution. Moreover, the structure of the vine copula allows us to derive the conditional distribution of the glacier discharge for the given meteorological conditions. Three different prediction methods for the values of the discharge are used and compared. The proposed methodology is applied to a large database collected since 2002 by the GLACKMA association from a measurement station located in the King George Island in the Antarctica. Seasonal effects are included by using different parameters for each season. We have found that the proposed vine copula model outperforms a previous work where we only used the temperature to predict the glacier discharge using a time-varying bivariate copula. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Gómez, Mario Ausín, M. Concepción Domínguez Alvarez, María Carmen |
author_facet |
Gómez, Mario Ausín, M. Concepción Domínguez Alvarez, María Carmen |
author_sort |
Gómez, Mario |
title |
Vine copula models for predicting water flow discharge at King George Island, Antarctica |
title_short |
Vine copula models for predicting water flow discharge at King George Island, Antarctica |
title_full |
Vine copula models for predicting water flow discharge at King George Island, Antarctica |
title_fullStr |
Vine copula models for predicting water flow discharge at King George Island, Antarctica |
title_full_unstemmed |
Vine copula models for predicting water flow discharge at King George Island, Antarctica |
title_sort |
vine copula models for predicting water flow discharge at king george island, antarctica |
publisher |
Springer Link |
publishDate |
2018 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/10366/146618 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-018-1599-9 |
geographic |
King George Island |
geographic_facet |
King George Island |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctica King George Island |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctica King George Island |
op_relation |
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-018-1599-9 Gómez, M., Ausín, M.C. & Domínguez, M.C.(2018) Vine copula models for predicting water flow discharge at King George Island, Antarctica. Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess 32, 2787–2807 . https://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-018-1599-9 1436-3240 http://hdl.handle.net/10366/146618 doi:10.1007/s00477-018-1599-9 1436-3259 |
op_rights |
Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 Internacional http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/ info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
op_rightsnorm |
CC-BY-NC-ND |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-018-1599-9 |
container_title |
Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment |
container_volume |
32 |
container_issue |
10 |
container_start_page |
2787 |
op_container_end_page |
2807 |
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1766268202363387904 |