Understanding the risk of an avian flu pandemic: Rational waiting or precautionary failure ?

• Published in: Risk Analysis
• Main Authors: Marcello Basili, FRANZINI, MAURIZIO
• Other Authors: Marcello, Basili, Franzini, Maurizio
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: BLACKWELL PUBLISHING 2006
• Subjects: ambiguity; avian flu; multiple prior; precautionary principle; Avian flu
• Online Access: http://hdl.handle.net/11573/93305; https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.2006.00761.x; http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcApp=PARTNER_APP&SrcAuth=LinksAMR&KeyUT=000238442900009&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=ALL_WOS&UsrCustomerID=0c7ff228ccbaaa74236f48834a34396a; http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?eid=2-s2.0-33745387521&partnerID=65&md5=f502cf937d8e805ad570c9b921dcd8e1

The precautionary principle (PP) has been proposed as the proper guide for the decision-making criteria to be adopted in the face of the new catastrophic risks that have arisen in the last decades. This article puts forward a workable definition of the PP based on the so-called alpha-maximin expected utility approach, applying it to the possible outbreak of the avian flu disease among humans. Moreover, it shows how the shortage and/or lack of effective drugs against the infection of the virus A(H5N1) among humans can be considered a precautionary failure.