Projecting Changes in S. Florida Rainfall for the 21st century: Scenarios, Downscaling and Analysis
Developing scenarios for climate change adaptation for sub-tropical coastal areas where changes in precipitation have consequences for drought and flood is necessary. Here, a Non-Homogeneous Hidden Markov Model (NHMM) is applied for simulating future daily rainfall at nineteen stations in South Flor...
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ftunivromairis:oai:iris.uniroma1.it:11573/548220 2024-02-04T10:02:40+01:00 Projecting Changes in S. Florida Rainfall for the 21st century: Scenarios, Downscaling and Analysis CIOFFI, Francesco A. Monti F. Conticello U. Lall American Geophysical Union Cioffi, Francesco Monti, A. Conticello, F. Lall, U. 2013 ELETTRONICO http://hdl.handle.net/11573/548220 http://abstractsearch.agu.org/meetings/2013/FM/sections/GC/sessions/GC43C/abstracts/GC43C-1061.html eng eng AGU country:USA place:Washington ispartofbook:AGU Meetings Abstract database 2013 Fall Meeting AGU2013 volume:Abstract GC43C-1061 presented at 2013 Fall Meeting, AGU, San Francisco, Calif., 9-13 Dec. http://hdl.handle.net/11573/548220 http://abstractsearch.agu.org/meetings/2013/FM/sections/GC/sessions/GC43C/abstracts/GC43C-1061.html rainfall downscaling climate change Non homogeneous hidden markov models info:eu-repo/semantics/conferenceObject 2013 ftunivromairis 2024-01-10T17:55:14Z Developing scenarios for climate change adaptation for sub-tropical coastal areas where changes in precipitation have consequences for drought and flood is necessary. Here, a Non-Homogeneous Hidden Markov Model (NHMM) is applied for simulating future daily rainfall at nineteen stations in South Florida. The CMIP 5 simulation of the coupled ocean-atmosphere model CMCC-CMS from 1950-2100 is used for projection. The application directly considers seasonality through changes in the driving variables, rather than developing separate models for each canonical season. Biases between the re-analysis model and retrospective simulations of the CMCC-CMS are addressed. The results indicate that, as a consequence of increase of the CO2 concentration and temperature, South Florida may be subjected to drier conditions for most of the year. The number of wet days reduces while extreme rainfall frequency increases. These are consistent with trends of rainfall observed in the recent data. A modest reduction in total rainfall in the February to May period, and a slight increase in the September-October projected rainfall is noted. Changes in the expression of the North Atlantic Subtropical High in the model appear to correspond to circulation changes that determine the new seasonality and patterns of rainfall in the region. Conference Object North Atlantic Sapienza Università di Roma: CINECA IRIS |
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Open Polar |
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Sapienza Università di Roma: CINECA IRIS |
op_collection_id |
ftunivromairis |
language |
English |
topic |
rainfall downscaling climate change Non homogeneous hidden markov models |
spellingShingle |
rainfall downscaling climate change Non homogeneous hidden markov models CIOFFI, Francesco A. Monti F. Conticello U. Lall Projecting Changes in S. Florida Rainfall for the 21st century: Scenarios, Downscaling and Analysis |
topic_facet |
rainfall downscaling climate change Non homogeneous hidden markov models |
description |
Developing scenarios for climate change adaptation for sub-tropical coastal areas where changes in precipitation have consequences for drought and flood is necessary. Here, a Non-Homogeneous Hidden Markov Model (NHMM) is applied for simulating future daily rainfall at nineteen stations in South Florida. The CMIP 5 simulation of the coupled ocean-atmosphere model CMCC-CMS from 1950-2100 is used for projection. The application directly considers seasonality through changes in the driving variables, rather than developing separate models for each canonical season. Biases between the re-analysis model and retrospective simulations of the CMCC-CMS are addressed. The results indicate that, as a consequence of increase of the CO2 concentration and temperature, South Florida may be subjected to drier conditions for most of the year. The number of wet days reduces while extreme rainfall frequency increases. These are consistent with trends of rainfall observed in the recent data. A modest reduction in total rainfall in the February to May period, and a slight increase in the September-October projected rainfall is noted. Changes in the expression of the North Atlantic Subtropical High in the model appear to correspond to circulation changes that determine the new seasonality and patterns of rainfall in the region. |
author2 |
American Geophysical Union Cioffi, Francesco Monti, A. Conticello, F. Lall, U. |
format |
Conference Object |
author |
CIOFFI, Francesco A. Monti F. Conticello U. Lall |
author_facet |
CIOFFI, Francesco A. Monti F. Conticello U. Lall |
author_sort |
CIOFFI, Francesco |
title |
Projecting Changes in S. Florida Rainfall for the 21st century: Scenarios, Downscaling and Analysis |
title_short |
Projecting Changes in S. Florida Rainfall for the 21st century: Scenarios, Downscaling and Analysis |
title_full |
Projecting Changes in S. Florida Rainfall for the 21st century: Scenarios, Downscaling and Analysis |
title_fullStr |
Projecting Changes in S. Florida Rainfall for the 21st century: Scenarios, Downscaling and Analysis |
title_full_unstemmed |
Projecting Changes in S. Florida Rainfall for the 21st century: Scenarios, Downscaling and Analysis |
title_sort |
projecting changes in s. florida rainfall for the 21st century: scenarios, downscaling and analysis |
publisher |
AGU |
publishDate |
2013 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/11573/548220 http://abstractsearch.agu.org/meetings/2013/FM/sections/GC/sessions/GC43C/abstracts/GC43C-1061.html |
genre |
North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic |
op_relation |
ispartofbook:AGU Meetings Abstract database 2013 Fall Meeting AGU2013 volume:Abstract GC43C-1061 presented at 2013 Fall Meeting, AGU, San Francisco, Calif., 9-13 Dec. http://hdl.handle.net/11573/548220 http://abstractsearch.agu.org/meetings/2013/FM/sections/GC/sessions/GC43C/abstracts/GC43C-1061.html |
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1789969533691232256 |