Large carnivore expansion in Europe is associated with human population density and land cover changes
Aim: The recent recovery of large carnivores in Europe has been explained as resulting from a decrease in human persecution driven by widespread rural land abandonment, paralleled by forest cover increase and the consequent increase in availability of shelter and prey. We investigated whether land c...
Published in: | Diversity and Distributions |
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Language: | English |
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Blackwell Publishing Ltd
2021
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Online Access: | http://hdl.handle.net/11573/1489514 https://doi.org/10.1111/ddi.13219 |
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ftunivromairis:oai:iris.uniroma1.it:11573/1489514 2024-04-14T08:10:13+00:00 Large carnivore expansion in Europe is associated with human population density and land cover changes Cimatti M. Ranc N. Benitez-Lopez A. Maiorano L. Boitani L. Cagnacci F. Cengic M. Ciucci P. Huijbregts M. A. J. Krofel M. Lopez-Bao J. V. Selva N. Andren H. Bautista C. Cirovic D. Hemmingmoore H. Reinhardt I. Marence M. Mertzanis Y. Pedrotti L. Trbojevic I. Zetterberg A. Zwijacz-Kozica T. Santini L. Cimatti, M. Ranc, N. Benitez-Lopez, A. Maiorano, L. Boitani, L. Cagnacci, F. Cengic, M. Ciucci, P. Huijbregts, M. A. J. Krofel, M. Lopez-Bao, J. V. Selva, N. Andren, H. Bautista, C. Cirovic, D. Hemmingmoore, H. Reinhardt, I. Marence, M. Mertzanis, Y. Pedrotti, L. Trbojevic, I. Zetterberg, A. Zwijacz-Kozica, T. Santini, L. 2021 http://hdl.handle.net/11573/1489514 https://doi.org/10.1111/ddi.13219 eng eng Blackwell Publishing Ltd place:111 RIVER ST, HOBOKEN 07030-5774, NJ USA info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/wos/WOS:000608260100001 firstpage:1 lastpage:16 numberofpages:16 journal:DIVERSITY AND DISTRIBUTIONS http://hdl.handle.net/11573/1489514 doi:10.1111/ddi.13219 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/scopus/2-s2.0-85099423484 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess land cover change multi-temporal distribution model range expansion rewilding info:eu-repo/semantics/article 2021 ftunivromairis https://doi.org/10.1111/ddi.13219 2024-03-21T19:27:56Z Aim: The recent recovery of large carnivores in Europe has been explained as resulting from a decrease in human persecution driven by widespread rural land abandonment, paralleled by forest cover increase and the consequent increase in availability of shelter and prey. We investigated whether land cover and human population density changes are related to the relative probability of occurrence of three European large carnivores: the grey wolf (Canis lupus), the Eurasian lynx (Lynx lynx) and the brown bear (Ursus arctos). Location: Europe, west of 64° longitude. Methods: We fitted multi-temporal species distribution models using >50,000 occurrence points with time series of land cover, landscape configuration, protected areas, hunting regulations and human population density covering a 24-year period (1992–2015). Within the temporal window considered, we then predicted changes in habitat suitability for large carnivores throughout Europe. Results: Between 1992 and 2015, the habitat suitability for the three species increased in Eastern Europe, the Balkans, North-West Iberian Peninsula and Northern Scandinavia, but showed mixed trends in Western and Southern Europe. These trends were primarily associated with increases in forest cover and decreases in human population density, and, additionally, with decreases in the cover of mosaics of cropland and natural vegetation. Main conclusions: Recent land cover and human population changes appear to have altered the habitat suitability pattern for large carnivores in Europe, whereas protection level did not play a role. While projected changes largely match the observed recovery of large carnivore populations, we found mismatches with the recent expansion of wolves in Central and Southern Europe, where factors not included in our models may have played a dominant role. This suggests that large carnivores’ co-existence with humans in European landscapes is not limited by habitat availability, but other factors such as favourable human tolerance and policy. Article in Journal/Newspaper Canis lupus Ursus arctos Lynx Lynx lynx lynx Sapienza Università di Roma: CINECA IRIS Diversity and Distributions 27 4 602 617 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Sapienza Università di Roma: CINECA IRIS |
op_collection_id |
ftunivromairis |
language |
English |
topic |
land cover change multi-temporal distribution model range expansion rewilding |
spellingShingle |
land cover change multi-temporal distribution model range expansion rewilding Cimatti M. Ranc N. Benitez-Lopez A. Maiorano L. Boitani L. Cagnacci F. Cengic M. Ciucci P. Huijbregts M. A. J. Krofel M. Lopez-Bao J. V. Selva N. Andren H. Bautista C. Cirovic D. Hemmingmoore H. Reinhardt I. Marence M. Mertzanis Y. Pedrotti L. Trbojevic I. Zetterberg A. Zwijacz-Kozica T. Santini L. Large carnivore expansion in Europe is associated with human population density and land cover changes |
topic_facet |
land cover change multi-temporal distribution model range expansion rewilding |
description |
Aim: The recent recovery of large carnivores in Europe has been explained as resulting from a decrease in human persecution driven by widespread rural land abandonment, paralleled by forest cover increase and the consequent increase in availability of shelter and prey. We investigated whether land cover and human population density changes are related to the relative probability of occurrence of three European large carnivores: the grey wolf (Canis lupus), the Eurasian lynx (Lynx lynx) and the brown bear (Ursus arctos). Location: Europe, west of 64° longitude. Methods: We fitted multi-temporal species distribution models using >50,000 occurrence points with time series of land cover, landscape configuration, protected areas, hunting regulations and human population density covering a 24-year period (1992–2015). Within the temporal window considered, we then predicted changes in habitat suitability for large carnivores throughout Europe. Results: Between 1992 and 2015, the habitat suitability for the three species increased in Eastern Europe, the Balkans, North-West Iberian Peninsula and Northern Scandinavia, but showed mixed trends in Western and Southern Europe. These trends were primarily associated with increases in forest cover and decreases in human population density, and, additionally, with decreases in the cover of mosaics of cropland and natural vegetation. Main conclusions: Recent land cover and human population changes appear to have altered the habitat suitability pattern for large carnivores in Europe, whereas protection level did not play a role. While projected changes largely match the observed recovery of large carnivore populations, we found mismatches with the recent expansion of wolves in Central and Southern Europe, where factors not included in our models may have played a dominant role. This suggests that large carnivores’ co-existence with humans in European landscapes is not limited by habitat availability, but other factors such as favourable human tolerance and policy. |
author2 |
Cimatti, M. Ranc, N. Benitez-Lopez, A. Maiorano, L. Boitani, L. Cagnacci, F. Cengic, M. Ciucci, P. Huijbregts, M. A. J. Krofel, M. Lopez-Bao, J. V. Selva, N. Andren, H. Bautista, C. Cirovic, D. Hemmingmoore, H. Reinhardt, I. Marence, M. Mertzanis, Y. Pedrotti, L. Trbojevic, I. Zetterberg, A. Zwijacz-Kozica, T. Santini, L. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Cimatti M. Ranc N. Benitez-Lopez A. Maiorano L. Boitani L. Cagnacci F. Cengic M. Ciucci P. Huijbregts M. A. J. Krofel M. Lopez-Bao J. V. Selva N. Andren H. Bautista C. Cirovic D. Hemmingmoore H. Reinhardt I. Marence M. Mertzanis Y. Pedrotti L. Trbojevic I. Zetterberg A. Zwijacz-Kozica T. Santini L. |
author_facet |
Cimatti M. Ranc N. Benitez-Lopez A. Maiorano L. Boitani L. Cagnacci F. Cengic M. Ciucci P. Huijbregts M. A. J. Krofel M. Lopez-Bao J. V. Selva N. Andren H. Bautista C. Cirovic D. Hemmingmoore H. Reinhardt I. Marence M. Mertzanis Y. Pedrotti L. Trbojevic I. Zetterberg A. Zwijacz-Kozica T. Santini L. |
author_sort |
Cimatti M. |
title |
Large carnivore expansion in Europe is associated with human population density and land cover changes |
title_short |
Large carnivore expansion in Europe is associated with human population density and land cover changes |
title_full |
Large carnivore expansion in Europe is associated with human population density and land cover changes |
title_fullStr |
Large carnivore expansion in Europe is associated with human population density and land cover changes |
title_full_unstemmed |
Large carnivore expansion in Europe is associated with human population density and land cover changes |
title_sort |
large carnivore expansion in europe is associated with human population density and land cover changes |
publisher |
Blackwell Publishing Ltd |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/11573/1489514 https://doi.org/10.1111/ddi.13219 |
genre |
Canis lupus Ursus arctos Lynx Lynx lynx lynx |
genre_facet |
Canis lupus Ursus arctos Lynx Lynx lynx lynx |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/wos/WOS:000608260100001 firstpage:1 lastpage:16 numberofpages:16 journal:DIVERSITY AND DISTRIBUTIONS http://hdl.handle.net/11573/1489514 doi:10.1111/ddi.13219 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/scopus/2-s2.0-85099423484 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1111/ddi.13219 |
container_title |
Diversity and Distributions |
container_volume |
27 |
container_issue |
4 |
container_start_page |
602 |
op_container_end_page |
617 |
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1796307736832507904 |