Potential for redistribution of post‐moult habitat for Eudyptes penguins in the Southern Ocean under future climate conditions

• Published in: Global Change Biology
• Main Authors: Green, Cara‐paige, Green, David, Ratcliffe, Norman, Thompson, David, Lea, Mary‐anne, Baylis, Alastair, Bond, Alexander, Bost, Charles‐andré, Crofts, Sarah, Cuthbert, Richard, González-Solís, Jacob, Morrison, Kyle, Poisbleau, Maud, Pütz, Klemens, Rey, Andrea Raya, Ryan, Peter, Sagar, Paul, Steinfurth, Antje, Thiebot, Jean‐baptiste, Tierney, Megan, Whitehead, T. Otto, Wotherspoon, Simon, Hindell, Mark
• Other Authors: Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies Hobart (IMAS), University of Tasmania Hobart, Australia (UTAS), British Antarctic Survey (BAS), Natural Environment Research Council (NERC), National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research Ltd. New Zealand, South Atlantic Environmental Research Institute UK, Falkland Islands Joint Nature Conservation Committee UK, Centre d'Études Biologiques de Chizé - UMR 7372 (CEBC), La Rochelle Université (ULR)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE), RSPB Centre for Conservation Science, Royal Society for the Protection of Birds, Institut de Recerca de la Biodiversitat (IRBio), Universitat de Barcelona (UB), Behavioural Ecology and Ecophysiology Group, University of Antwerp (UA), Antarctic Research Trust, CADIC CONICET USHUAIA ARG, Partenaires IRSTEA, Institut national de recherche en sciences et technologies pour l'environnement et l'agriculture (IRSTEA)-Institut national de recherche en sciences et technologies pour l'environnement et l'agriculture (IRSTEA), FitzPatrick Institute of African Ornithology, University of Cape Town-DST-NRF Centre of Excellence, South Atlantic Environmental Research Institute Falkland Islands (SAERI), Percy FitzPatrick Institute of African Ornithology, Australian Antarctic Division, Department of Agriculture Australia, Australian Antarctic Division, Kingston, Tasmania, 7050, Australia
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: HAL CCSD 2023
• Subjects: climate change; habitat preference models; migration; overwinter; species redistributions; Subantarctic penguins; [SDE]Environmental Sciences; Indian; Pacific; Southern Ocean
• Online Access: https://hal.science/hal-03831809; https://hal.science/hal-03831809/document; https://hal.science/hal-03831809/file/GGCB29_2013.pdf; https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.16500

International audience Anthropogenic climate change is resulting in spatial redistributions of many species. We assessed the potential effects of climate change on an abundant and widely distributed group of diving birds, Eudyptes penguins, which are the main avian consumers in the Southern Ocean in terms of biomass consumption. Despite their abundance, several of these species have undergone population declines over the past century, potentially due to changing oceanography and prey availability over the important winter months. We used light‐based geolocation tracking data for 485 individuals deployed between 2006 – 2020 across 10 of the major breeding locations for five taxa of Eudyptes penguins. We used Boosted Regression Tree modelling to quantify post‐moult habitat preference for southern rockhopper (E. chrysocome), eastern rockhopper (E. filholi), northern rockhopper (E. moseleyi) and macaroni/royal (E. chrysolophus and E. schlegeli) penguins. We then modelled their redistribution under two climate change scenarios, Representative Concentration Pathways RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 (for the end of the century, 2071 – 2100). As climate forcings differ regionally, we quantified redistribution in the Atlantic, Central Indian, East Indian, West Pacific, and East Pacific regions. We found sea surface temperature and sea surface height to be the most important predictors of current habitat for these penguins; physical features that are changing rapidly in the Southern Ocean. Our results indicated that the less severe RCP4.5 would lead to less habitat loss than the more severe RCP8.5. The five taxa of penguin may experience a general poleward redistribution of their preferred habitat, but with contrasting effects in the i) change in total area of preferred habitat under climate change ii) according to geographic region and iii) the species (macaroni/royal vs rockhopper populations). Our results provide further understanding on the regional impacts and vulnerability of species to climate change.