Interacting effects of unobserved heterogeneity and individual stochasticity in the life history of the southern fulmar
International audience 1. Individuals are heterogeneous in many ways. Some of these differences are incorporatedas individual states (e.g. age, size, breeding status) in population models.However, substantial amounts of heterogeneity may remain unaccounted for, dueto unmeasurable genetic, maternal o...
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ftunivrochelle:oai:HAL:hal-02045560v1 2024-02-11T09:57:47+01:00 Interacting effects of unobserved heterogeneity and individual stochasticity in the life history of the southern fulmar Jenouvrier, Stéphanie Aubry, Lise Barbraud, Christophe Weimerskirch, Henri Caswell, Hal Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI) Centre d'Études Biologiques de Chizé - UMR 7372 (CEBC) Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-La Rochelle Université (ULR)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) Colorado State University Fort Collins (CSU) Institute for Biodiversity and Ecosystem Dynamics University of Amsterdam Amsterdam = Universiteit van Amsterdam (UvA) 2018-01 https://hal.science/hal-02045560 https://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2656.12752 en eng HAL CCSD Wiley info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1111/1365-2656.12752 hal-02045560 https://hal.science/hal-02045560 doi:10.1111/1365-2656.12752 PUBMEDCENTRAL: PMC5765524 ISSN: 0021-8790 EISSN: 1365-2656 Journal of Animal Ecology https://hal.science/hal-02045560 Journal of Animal Ecology, 2018, 87 (1), pp.212-222. ⟨10.1111/1365-2656.12752⟩ frailty individual quality latent life expectancy lifetime reproductive success [SDE]Environmental Sciences info:eu-repo/semantics/article Journal articles 2018 ftunivrochelle https://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2656.12752 2024-01-23T23:35:16Z International audience 1. Individuals are heterogeneous in many ways. Some of these differences are incorporatedas individual states (e.g. age, size, breeding status) in population models.However, substantial amounts of heterogeneity may remain unaccounted for, dueto unmeasurable genetic, maternal or environmental factors.2. Such unobserved heterogeneity (UH) affects the behaviour of heterogeneous cohortsvia intra-cohort selection and contributes to inter-individual variance in demographicoutcomes such as longevity and lifetime reproduction. Variance is alsoproduced by individual stochasticity, due to random events in the life cycle of wildorganisms, yet no study thus far has attempted to decompose the variance in demographicoutcomes into contributions from UH and individual stochasticity for ananimal population in the wild.3. We developed a stage-classified matrix population model for the southern fulmarbreeding on Ile des Pétrels, Antarctica. We applied multievent, multistate mark–recapturemethods to estimate a finite mixture model accounting for UH in all vitalrates and Markov chain methods to calculate demographic outcomes. Finally, wepartitioned the variance in demographic outcomes into contributions from UH andindividual stochasticity.4. We identify three UH groups, differing substantially in longevity, lifetime reproductiveoutput, age at first reproduction and in the proportion of the life spent in eachreproductive state.– 14% of individuals at fledging have a delayed but high probability of recruitmentand extended reproductive life span.– 67% of individuals are less likely to reach adulthood, recruit late and skip breedingoften but have the highest adult survival rate.– 19% of individuals recruit early and attempt to breed often. They are likely to raisetheir offspring successfully, but experience a relatively short life span.Unobserved heterogeneity only explains a small fraction of the variances in longevity(5.9%), age at first reproduction (3.7%) and lifetime reproduction (22%).5. UH can affect the ... Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctica HAL - Université de La Rochelle Fulmar ENVELOPE(-46.016,-46.016,-60.616,-60.616) Pétrels ENVELOPE(140.017,140.017,-66.667,-66.667) Ile des Pétrels ENVELOPE(140.010,140.010,-66.665,-66.665) Journal of Animal Ecology 87 1 212 222 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
HAL - Université de La Rochelle |
op_collection_id |
ftunivrochelle |
language |
English |
topic |
frailty individual quality latent life expectancy lifetime reproductive success [SDE]Environmental Sciences |
spellingShingle |
frailty individual quality latent life expectancy lifetime reproductive success [SDE]Environmental Sciences Jenouvrier, Stéphanie Aubry, Lise Barbraud, Christophe Weimerskirch, Henri Caswell, Hal Interacting effects of unobserved heterogeneity and individual stochasticity in the life history of the southern fulmar |
topic_facet |
frailty individual quality latent life expectancy lifetime reproductive success [SDE]Environmental Sciences |
description |
International audience 1. Individuals are heterogeneous in many ways. Some of these differences are incorporatedas individual states (e.g. age, size, breeding status) in population models.However, substantial amounts of heterogeneity may remain unaccounted for, dueto unmeasurable genetic, maternal or environmental factors.2. Such unobserved heterogeneity (UH) affects the behaviour of heterogeneous cohortsvia intra-cohort selection and contributes to inter-individual variance in demographicoutcomes such as longevity and lifetime reproduction. Variance is alsoproduced by individual stochasticity, due to random events in the life cycle of wildorganisms, yet no study thus far has attempted to decompose the variance in demographicoutcomes into contributions from UH and individual stochasticity for ananimal population in the wild.3. We developed a stage-classified matrix population model for the southern fulmarbreeding on Ile des Pétrels, Antarctica. We applied multievent, multistate mark–recapturemethods to estimate a finite mixture model accounting for UH in all vitalrates and Markov chain methods to calculate demographic outcomes. Finally, wepartitioned the variance in demographic outcomes into contributions from UH andindividual stochasticity.4. We identify three UH groups, differing substantially in longevity, lifetime reproductiveoutput, age at first reproduction and in the proportion of the life spent in eachreproductive state.– 14% of individuals at fledging have a delayed but high probability of recruitmentand extended reproductive life span.– 67% of individuals are less likely to reach adulthood, recruit late and skip breedingoften but have the highest adult survival rate.– 19% of individuals recruit early and attempt to breed often. They are likely to raisetheir offspring successfully, but experience a relatively short life span.Unobserved heterogeneity only explains a small fraction of the variances in longevity(5.9%), age at first reproduction (3.7%) and lifetime reproduction (22%).5. UH can affect the ... |
author2 |
Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI) Centre d'Études Biologiques de Chizé - UMR 7372 (CEBC) Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-La Rochelle Université (ULR)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) Colorado State University Fort Collins (CSU) Institute for Biodiversity and Ecosystem Dynamics University of Amsterdam Amsterdam = Universiteit van Amsterdam (UvA) |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Jenouvrier, Stéphanie Aubry, Lise Barbraud, Christophe Weimerskirch, Henri Caswell, Hal |
author_facet |
Jenouvrier, Stéphanie Aubry, Lise Barbraud, Christophe Weimerskirch, Henri Caswell, Hal |
author_sort |
Jenouvrier, Stéphanie |
title |
Interacting effects of unobserved heterogeneity and individual stochasticity in the life history of the southern fulmar |
title_short |
Interacting effects of unobserved heterogeneity and individual stochasticity in the life history of the southern fulmar |
title_full |
Interacting effects of unobserved heterogeneity and individual stochasticity in the life history of the southern fulmar |
title_fullStr |
Interacting effects of unobserved heterogeneity and individual stochasticity in the life history of the southern fulmar |
title_full_unstemmed |
Interacting effects of unobserved heterogeneity and individual stochasticity in the life history of the southern fulmar |
title_sort |
interacting effects of unobserved heterogeneity and individual stochasticity in the life history of the southern fulmar |
publisher |
HAL CCSD |
publishDate |
2018 |
url |
https://hal.science/hal-02045560 https://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2656.12752 |
long_lat |
ENVELOPE(-46.016,-46.016,-60.616,-60.616) ENVELOPE(140.017,140.017,-66.667,-66.667) ENVELOPE(140.010,140.010,-66.665,-66.665) |
geographic |
Fulmar Pétrels Ile des Pétrels |
geographic_facet |
Fulmar Pétrels Ile des Pétrels |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctica |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctica |
op_source |
ISSN: 0021-8790 EISSN: 1365-2656 Journal of Animal Ecology https://hal.science/hal-02045560 Journal of Animal Ecology, 2018, 87 (1), pp.212-222. ⟨10.1111/1365-2656.12752⟩ |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1111/1365-2656.12752 hal-02045560 https://hal.science/hal-02045560 doi:10.1111/1365-2656.12752 PUBMEDCENTRAL: PMC5765524 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2656.12752 |
container_title |
Journal of Animal Ecology |
container_volume |
87 |
container_issue |
1 |
container_start_page |
212 |
op_container_end_page |
222 |
_version_ |
1790593330905612288 |