Circumpolar analysis of the Adélie Penguin reveals the importance of environmental variability in phenological mismatch

• Published in: Ecology
• Main Authors: Youngflesh, Casey, Jenouvrier, Stéphanie, Li, Yun, Ji, Rubao, Ainley, David G, Ballard, Grant, Barbraud, Christophe, Delord, Karine, Dugger, Katie M., Emmerson, Louise M., Fraser, William R., Hinke, Jefferson T., Lyver, Philip O'B., Olmastroni, Silvia, Southwell, Colin J., Trivelpiece, Susan G., Trivelpiece, Wayne Z., Lynch, Heather J.
• Other Authors: Department of Ecology and Evolution - USA (Stony Brook University ), Stony Brook University SUNY (SBU), State University of New York (SUNY)-State University of New York (SUNY), Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI), Centre d'Études Biologiques de Chizé - UMR 7372 (CEBC), Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-La Rochelle Université (ULR)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), College of Marine Science St Petersburg, FL, University of South Florida Tampa (USF), Biology Department - Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, H.T. Harvey & Associates, PRBO Conservation Science, Department of Fisheries and Wildlife, Oregon State University (OSU), Australian Antarctic Division (AAD), Australian Government, Department of the Environment and Energy, Polar Oceans Research Group USA, Antarctic Ecosystem Research Division, Southwest Fisheries Science Center (SWFSC), NOAA National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)-National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)-NOAA National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)-National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Manaaki Whenua – Landcare Research Lincoln, Dipartimento di Scienze Ambientali "G. Sarfatti", Università degli Studi di Siena = University of Siena (UNISI), State University of New York (SUNY)
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: HAL CCSD 2017
• Subjects: Bayesian hierarchical model; asynchrony; Antarctica; climate change; phenology; Pygoscelis adeliae; Anna Karenina Principle; quantile regression; [SDE]Environmental Sciences; Arctic; Antarctic; The Antarctic; Antarc*; Climate change; Phytoplankton
• Online Access: https://hal.science/hal-01509789; https://doi.org/10.1002/ecy.1749

International audience Evidence of climate-change-drivenshifts in plant and animal phenology haveraised concerns that certain trophic interactions may be increasingly mismatched in time,resultingin declines in reproductive success. Given the constraints imposed by extreme seasonalityat high latitudes and the rapid shifts in phenology seen in the Arctic, we would also expectAntarctic species to be highly vulnerable to climate-change-drivenphenological mismatcheswith their environment. However, few studies have assessed the impacts of phenological changein Antarctica. Using the largest database of phytoplankton phenology, sea-icephenology, andAdélie Penguin breeding phenology and breeding success assembled to date, we find that, whilea temporal match between Penguin breeding phenology and optimal environmental conditionssets an upper limit on breeding success, only a weak relationship to the mean exists. Despiteprevious work suggesting that divergent trends in Adélie Penguin breeding phenology areapparentacross the Antarctic continent, we find no such trends. Furthermore, we find no trendin the magnitude of phenological mismatch, suggesting that mismatch is driven by interannualvariability in environmental conditions rather than climate-change-driventrends, as observed inother systems. We propose several criteria necessary for a species to experience a strong climate-change-drivenphenological mismatch, of which several may be violated by this system