Warming seas increase cold-stunning events for Kemp’s ridley sea turtles in the northwest Atlantic
Since the 1970s, the magnitude of turtle cold-stun strandings have increased dramatically within the northwestern Atlantic. Here, we examine oceanic, atmospheric, and biological factors that may affect the increasing trend of cold-stunned Kemp’s ridleys in Cape Cod Bay, Massachusetts, United States...
Published in: | PLOS ONE |
---|---|
Main Authors: | , , , , , , |
Format: | Text |
Language: | unknown |
Published: |
DigitalCommons@URI
2019
|
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | https://digitalcommons.uri.edu/nrs_facpubs/151 https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0211503 https://digitalcommons.uri.edu/context/nrs_facpubs/article/1152/viewcontent/Still_Brett.pdf |
id |
ftunivrhodeislan:oai:digitalcommons.uri.edu:nrs_facpubs-1152 |
---|---|
record_format |
openpolar |
spelling |
ftunivrhodeislan:oai:digitalcommons.uri.edu:nrs_facpubs-1152 2023-07-30T04:05:54+02:00 Warming seas increase cold-stunning events for Kemp’s ridley sea turtles in the northwest Atlantic Griffin, Lucas P Griffin, Curtice R Finn, John T Prescott, Robert L Faherty, Mark Still, Brett Matthew Danylchuk, Andy J 2019-01-29T08:00:00Z application/pdf https://digitalcommons.uri.edu/nrs_facpubs/151 https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0211503 https://digitalcommons.uri.edu/context/nrs_facpubs/article/1152/viewcontent/Still_Brett.pdf unknown DigitalCommons@URI https://digitalcommons.uri.edu/nrs_facpubs/151 doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0211503 https://digitalcommons.uri.edu/context/nrs_facpubs/article/1152/viewcontent/Still_Brett.pdf http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ Natural Resources Science Faculty Publications text 2019 ftunivrhodeislan https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0211503 2023-07-17T18:59:42Z Since the 1970s, the magnitude of turtle cold-stun strandings have increased dramatically within the northwestern Atlantic. Here, we examine oceanic, atmospheric, and biological factors that may affect the increasing trend of cold-stunned Kemp’s ridleys in Cape Cod Bay, Massachusetts, United States of America. Using machine learning and Bayesian inference modeling techniques, we demonstrate higher cold-stunning years occur when the Gulf of Maine has warmer sea surface temperatures in late October through early November. Surprisingly, hatchling numbers in Mexico, a proxy for population abundance, was not identified as an important factor. Further, using our Bayesian count model and forecasted sea surface temperature projections, we predict more than 2,300 Kemp’s ridley turtles may cold-stun annually by 2031 as sea surface temperatures continue to increase within the Gulf of Maine. We suggest warmer sea surface temperatures may have modified the northerly distribution of Kemp’s ridleys and act as an ecological bridge between the Gulf Stream and nearshore waters. While cold-stunning may currently account for a minor proportion of juvenile mortality, we recommend continuing efforts to rehabilitate cold-stunned individuals to maintain population resiliency for this critically endangered species in the face of a changing climate and continuing anthropogenic threats. Text Northwest Atlantic University of Rhode Island: DigitalCommons@URI Ridley ENVELOPE(-130.315,-130.315,54.250,54.250) PLOS ONE 14 1 e0211503 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
University of Rhode Island: DigitalCommons@URI |
op_collection_id |
ftunivrhodeislan |
language |
unknown |
description |
Since the 1970s, the magnitude of turtle cold-stun strandings have increased dramatically within the northwestern Atlantic. Here, we examine oceanic, atmospheric, and biological factors that may affect the increasing trend of cold-stunned Kemp’s ridleys in Cape Cod Bay, Massachusetts, United States of America. Using machine learning and Bayesian inference modeling techniques, we demonstrate higher cold-stunning years occur when the Gulf of Maine has warmer sea surface temperatures in late October through early November. Surprisingly, hatchling numbers in Mexico, a proxy for population abundance, was not identified as an important factor. Further, using our Bayesian count model and forecasted sea surface temperature projections, we predict more than 2,300 Kemp’s ridley turtles may cold-stun annually by 2031 as sea surface temperatures continue to increase within the Gulf of Maine. We suggest warmer sea surface temperatures may have modified the northerly distribution of Kemp’s ridleys and act as an ecological bridge between the Gulf Stream and nearshore waters. While cold-stunning may currently account for a minor proportion of juvenile mortality, we recommend continuing efforts to rehabilitate cold-stunned individuals to maintain population resiliency for this critically endangered species in the face of a changing climate and continuing anthropogenic threats. |
format |
Text |
author |
Griffin, Lucas P Griffin, Curtice R Finn, John T Prescott, Robert L Faherty, Mark Still, Brett Matthew Danylchuk, Andy J |
spellingShingle |
Griffin, Lucas P Griffin, Curtice R Finn, John T Prescott, Robert L Faherty, Mark Still, Brett Matthew Danylchuk, Andy J Warming seas increase cold-stunning events for Kemp’s ridley sea turtles in the northwest Atlantic |
author_facet |
Griffin, Lucas P Griffin, Curtice R Finn, John T Prescott, Robert L Faherty, Mark Still, Brett Matthew Danylchuk, Andy J |
author_sort |
Griffin, Lucas P |
title |
Warming seas increase cold-stunning events for Kemp’s ridley sea turtles in the northwest Atlantic |
title_short |
Warming seas increase cold-stunning events for Kemp’s ridley sea turtles in the northwest Atlantic |
title_full |
Warming seas increase cold-stunning events for Kemp’s ridley sea turtles in the northwest Atlantic |
title_fullStr |
Warming seas increase cold-stunning events for Kemp’s ridley sea turtles in the northwest Atlantic |
title_full_unstemmed |
Warming seas increase cold-stunning events for Kemp’s ridley sea turtles in the northwest Atlantic |
title_sort |
warming seas increase cold-stunning events for kemp’s ridley sea turtles in the northwest atlantic |
publisher |
DigitalCommons@URI |
publishDate |
2019 |
url |
https://digitalcommons.uri.edu/nrs_facpubs/151 https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0211503 https://digitalcommons.uri.edu/context/nrs_facpubs/article/1152/viewcontent/Still_Brett.pdf |
long_lat |
ENVELOPE(-130.315,-130.315,54.250,54.250) |
geographic |
Ridley |
geographic_facet |
Ridley |
genre |
Northwest Atlantic |
genre_facet |
Northwest Atlantic |
op_source |
Natural Resources Science Faculty Publications |
op_relation |
https://digitalcommons.uri.edu/nrs_facpubs/151 doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0211503 https://digitalcommons.uri.edu/context/nrs_facpubs/article/1152/viewcontent/Still_Brett.pdf |
op_rights |
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0211503 |
container_title |
PLOS ONE |
container_volume |
14 |
container_issue |
1 |
container_start_page |
e0211503 |
_version_ |
1772818201992757248 |