Climate, Ocean Circulation, and Sea Level Changes under Stabilization and Overshoot Pathways to 1.5 K Warming
The Paris Agreement has initiated a scientific debate on the role that carbon removal – or net negative emissions – might play in achieving less than 1.5K of global mean surface warming by 2100. Here, we probe the sensitivity of a comprehensive Earth system model (GFDL-ESM2M) to three different atmo...
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ftunivrhodeislan:oai:digitalcommons.uri.edu:gsofacpubs-1471 2023-07-30T04:05:37+02:00 Climate, Ocean Circulation, and Sea Level Changes under Stabilization and Overshoot Pathways to 1.5 K Warming Palter, Jaime B. Frölicher, Thomas L. Paynter, David John, Jasmin G. 2018-05-21T07:00:00Z application/pdf https://digitalcommons.uri.edu/gsofacpubs/494 https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-817-2018 https://digitalcommons.uri.edu/context/gsofacpubs/article/1471/viewcontent/esd_9_817_2018.pdf unknown DigitalCommons@URI https://digitalcommons.uri.edu/gsofacpubs/494 doi:10.5194/esd-9-817-2018 https://digitalcommons.uri.edu/context/gsofacpubs/article/1471/viewcontent/esd_9_817_2018.pdf http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ Graduate School of Oceanography Faculty Publications text 2018 ftunivrhodeislan https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-817-2018 2023-07-17T18:57:18Z The Paris Agreement has initiated a scientific debate on the role that carbon removal – or net negative emissions – might play in achieving less than 1.5K of global mean surface warming by 2100. Here, we probe the sensitivity of a comprehensive Earth system model (GFDL-ESM2M) to three different atmospheric CO2 concentration pathways, two of which arrive at 1.5K of warming in 2100 by very different pathways. We run five ensemble members of each of these simulations: (1) a standard Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP4.5) scenario, which produces 2K of surface warming by 2100 in our model; (2) a stabilization pathway in which atmospheric CO2 concentration never exceeds 440ppm and the global mean temperature rise is approximately 1.5K by 2100; and (3) an overshootpathway that passes through 2K of warming at mid-century, before ramping down atmospheric CO2 concentrations, as if using carbon removal, to end at 1.5K of warming at 2100. Although the global mean surface temperature change in response to the overshoot pathway is similar to the stabilization pathway in 2100, this similarity belies several important differences in other climate metrics, such as warming over land masses, the strength of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), ocean acidification, sea ice coverage, and the global mean sea level change and its regional expressions. In 2100, the overshoot ensemble shows a greater global steric sea level rise and weaker AMOC mass transport than in the stabilization scenario, with both of these metrics close to the ensemble mean of RCP4.5. There is strong ocean surface cooling in the North Atlantic Ocean and Southern Ocean in response to overshoot forcing due to perturbations in the ocean circulation. Thus, overshoot forcing in this model reduces the rate of sea ice loss in the Labrador, Nordic, Ross, and Weddell seas relative to the stabilized pathway, suggesting a negative radiative feedback in response to the early rapid warming. Finally, the ocean perturbation in response to warming ... Text North Atlantic Ocean acidification Sea ice Southern Ocean University of Rhode Island: DigitalCommons@URI Southern Ocean Weddell Earth System Dynamics 9 2 817 828 |
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Open Polar |
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University of Rhode Island: DigitalCommons@URI |
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ftunivrhodeislan |
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unknown |
description |
The Paris Agreement has initiated a scientific debate on the role that carbon removal – or net negative emissions – might play in achieving less than 1.5K of global mean surface warming by 2100. Here, we probe the sensitivity of a comprehensive Earth system model (GFDL-ESM2M) to three different atmospheric CO2 concentration pathways, two of which arrive at 1.5K of warming in 2100 by very different pathways. We run five ensemble members of each of these simulations: (1) a standard Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP4.5) scenario, which produces 2K of surface warming by 2100 in our model; (2) a stabilization pathway in which atmospheric CO2 concentration never exceeds 440ppm and the global mean temperature rise is approximately 1.5K by 2100; and (3) an overshootpathway that passes through 2K of warming at mid-century, before ramping down atmospheric CO2 concentrations, as if using carbon removal, to end at 1.5K of warming at 2100. Although the global mean surface temperature change in response to the overshoot pathway is similar to the stabilization pathway in 2100, this similarity belies several important differences in other climate metrics, such as warming over land masses, the strength of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), ocean acidification, sea ice coverage, and the global mean sea level change and its regional expressions. In 2100, the overshoot ensemble shows a greater global steric sea level rise and weaker AMOC mass transport than in the stabilization scenario, with both of these metrics close to the ensemble mean of RCP4.5. There is strong ocean surface cooling in the North Atlantic Ocean and Southern Ocean in response to overshoot forcing due to perturbations in the ocean circulation. Thus, overshoot forcing in this model reduces the rate of sea ice loss in the Labrador, Nordic, Ross, and Weddell seas relative to the stabilized pathway, suggesting a negative radiative feedback in response to the early rapid warming. Finally, the ocean perturbation in response to warming ... |
format |
Text |
author |
Palter, Jaime B. Frölicher, Thomas L. Paynter, David John, Jasmin G. |
spellingShingle |
Palter, Jaime B. Frölicher, Thomas L. Paynter, David John, Jasmin G. Climate, Ocean Circulation, and Sea Level Changes under Stabilization and Overshoot Pathways to 1.5 K Warming |
author_facet |
Palter, Jaime B. Frölicher, Thomas L. Paynter, David John, Jasmin G. |
author_sort |
Palter, Jaime B. |
title |
Climate, Ocean Circulation, and Sea Level Changes under Stabilization and Overshoot Pathways to 1.5 K Warming |
title_short |
Climate, Ocean Circulation, and Sea Level Changes under Stabilization and Overshoot Pathways to 1.5 K Warming |
title_full |
Climate, Ocean Circulation, and Sea Level Changes under Stabilization and Overshoot Pathways to 1.5 K Warming |
title_fullStr |
Climate, Ocean Circulation, and Sea Level Changes under Stabilization and Overshoot Pathways to 1.5 K Warming |
title_full_unstemmed |
Climate, Ocean Circulation, and Sea Level Changes under Stabilization and Overshoot Pathways to 1.5 K Warming |
title_sort |
climate, ocean circulation, and sea level changes under stabilization and overshoot pathways to 1.5 k warming |
publisher |
DigitalCommons@URI |
publishDate |
2018 |
url |
https://digitalcommons.uri.edu/gsofacpubs/494 https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-817-2018 https://digitalcommons.uri.edu/context/gsofacpubs/article/1471/viewcontent/esd_9_817_2018.pdf |
geographic |
Southern Ocean Weddell |
geographic_facet |
Southern Ocean Weddell |
genre |
North Atlantic Ocean acidification Sea ice Southern Ocean |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic Ocean acidification Sea ice Southern Ocean |
op_source |
Graduate School of Oceanography Faculty Publications |
op_relation |
https://digitalcommons.uri.edu/gsofacpubs/494 doi:10.5194/esd-9-817-2018 https://digitalcommons.uri.edu/context/gsofacpubs/article/1471/viewcontent/esd_9_817_2018.pdf |
op_rights |
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-817-2018 |
container_title |
Earth System Dynamics |
container_volume |
9 |
container_issue |
2 |
container_start_page |
817 |
op_container_end_page |
828 |
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1772817658413056000 |