Increased Winter-Mean Wave Height, Variability, and Periodicity in the Northeast Atlantic Over 1949-2017
International audience A 69-year (1948-2017) numerical weather and wave hindcast is used to investigate the interannual variability and trend of winter wave height along the west coast of Europe. Results show that the winter-mean wave height, variability, and periodicity all increased significantly...
Published in: | Geophysical Research Letters |
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Online Access: | https://hal.science/hal-02929081 https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL076884 |
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ftunivrennes2hal:oai:HAL:hal-02929081v1 2024-05-19T07:44:55+00:00 Increased Winter-Mean Wave Height, Variability, and Periodicity in the Northeast Atlantic Over 1949-2017 Castelle, Bruno Dodet, Guillaume Masselink, Gerhard Scott, Tim Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) Université de Bordeaux (UB) Littoral, Environnement, Télédétection, Géomatique (LETG - Nantes) Université de Caen Normandie (UNICAEN) Normandie Université (NU)-Normandie Université (NU)-École Pratique des Hautes Études (EPHE) Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université de Brest (UBO)-Université de Rennes 2 (UR2)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Géographie et d'Aménagement Régional de l'Université de Nantes (IGARUN) Université de Nantes (UN)-Université de Nantes (UN) Plymouth University Agence Nationale de la Recherche (ANR) through the project SONO ANR-17-CE01-0014 "Laboratoire d'Excellence" LabexMER ANR-10-LABX-19-01 AST "Evenements extremes" of the Observatoire Aquitain des Sciences de l'Univers (OASU) PROTEVS 12CR6 NERC BLUE-coast project NE/N015525/1 ANR-17-CE01-0014,SONO,Marier les objectifs de défense côtière avec ceux de la protection du milieu naturel grâce aux dunes sableuses(2017) 2018 https://hal.science/hal-02929081 https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL076884 en eng HAL CCSD American Geophysical Union info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1002/2017GL076884 hal-02929081 https://hal.science/hal-02929081 doi:10.1002/2017GL076884 ISSN: 0094-8276 EISSN: 1944-8007 Geophysical Research Letters https://hal.science/hal-02929081 Geophysical Research Letters, 2018, 45 (8), pp.3586-3596. ⟨10.1002/2017GL076884⟩ [SDV.MP]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Microbiology and Parasitology info:eu-repo/semantics/article Journal articles 2018 ftunivrennes2hal https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL076884 2024-04-24T00:43:31Z International audience A 69-year (1948-2017) numerical weather and wave hindcast is used to investigate the interannual variability and trend of winter wave height along the west coast of Europe. Results show that the winter-mean wave height, variability, and periodicity all increased significantly in the northeast Atlantic over the last seven decades which primarily correlate with changes in the climate indices North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and West Europe Pressure Anomaly (WEPA) affecting atmospheric circulation in the North Atlantic. NAO and WEPA primarily explain the increase in winter-mean wave height and periodicity, respectively, while both WEPA and NAO explain the increase in interannual variability. This increase in trend, variability, and periodicity resulted in more frequent high-energy winters with high NAO and/or WEPA over the last decades. The ability of climate models to predict the winter NAO and WEPA indices a few months ahead will be crucial to anticipate coastal hazards in this region. Plain Language Summary We explore the evolution of winter-mean wave height, variability, and periodicity in the northeast Atlantic over 1949-2017 and the links with the primary climate indices explaining winter wave activity, which is critical from the coastal hazard perspective. The climate indices NAO and WEPA primarily drive the increase in winter-mean wave height and periodicity, respectively, while both WEPA and NAO explain the increase in interannual variability, resulting in more frequent high-energy winters over the last seven decades. Extreme winter-mean wave heights become more frequent as WEPA and NAO positivity and variability increase. Predicting WEPA and NAO a few months ahead is crucial to anticipate coastal hazards, which is of interest for coastal and climate communities. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Northeast Atlantic Archive Ouverte de l'Université Rennes (HAL) Geophysical Research Letters 45 8 3586 3596 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Archive Ouverte de l'Université Rennes (HAL) |
op_collection_id |
ftunivrennes2hal |
language |
English |
topic |
[SDV.MP]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Microbiology and Parasitology |
spellingShingle |
[SDV.MP]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Microbiology and Parasitology Castelle, Bruno Dodet, Guillaume Masselink, Gerhard Scott, Tim Increased Winter-Mean Wave Height, Variability, and Periodicity in the Northeast Atlantic Over 1949-2017 |
topic_facet |
[SDV.MP]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Microbiology and Parasitology |
description |
International audience A 69-year (1948-2017) numerical weather and wave hindcast is used to investigate the interannual variability and trend of winter wave height along the west coast of Europe. Results show that the winter-mean wave height, variability, and periodicity all increased significantly in the northeast Atlantic over the last seven decades which primarily correlate with changes in the climate indices North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and West Europe Pressure Anomaly (WEPA) affecting atmospheric circulation in the North Atlantic. NAO and WEPA primarily explain the increase in winter-mean wave height and periodicity, respectively, while both WEPA and NAO explain the increase in interannual variability. This increase in trend, variability, and periodicity resulted in more frequent high-energy winters with high NAO and/or WEPA over the last decades. The ability of climate models to predict the winter NAO and WEPA indices a few months ahead will be crucial to anticipate coastal hazards in this region. Plain Language Summary We explore the evolution of winter-mean wave height, variability, and periodicity in the northeast Atlantic over 1949-2017 and the links with the primary climate indices explaining winter wave activity, which is critical from the coastal hazard perspective. The climate indices NAO and WEPA primarily drive the increase in winter-mean wave height and periodicity, respectively, while both WEPA and NAO explain the increase in interannual variability, resulting in more frequent high-energy winters over the last seven decades. Extreme winter-mean wave heights become more frequent as WEPA and NAO positivity and variability increase. Predicting WEPA and NAO a few months ahead is crucial to anticipate coastal hazards, which is of interest for coastal and climate communities. |
author2 |
Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) Université de Bordeaux (UB) Littoral, Environnement, Télédétection, Géomatique (LETG - Nantes) Université de Caen Normandie (UNICAEN) Normandie Université (NU)-Normandie Université (NU)-École Pratique des Hautes Études (EPHE) Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université de Brest (UBO)-Université de Rennes 2 (UR2)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Géographie et d'Aménagement Régional de l'Université de Nantes (IGARUN) Université de Nantes (UN)-Université de Nantes (UN) Plymouth University Agence Nationale de la Recherche (ANR) through the project SONO ANR-17-CE01-0014 "Laboratoire d'Excellence" LabexMER ANR-10-LABX-19-01 AST "Evenements extremes" of the Observatoire Aquitain des Sciences de l'Univers (OASU) PROTEVS 12CR6 NERC BLUE-coast project NE/N015525/1 ANR-17-CE01-0014,SONO,Marier les objectifs de défense côtière avec ceux de la protection du milieu naturel grâce aux dunes sableuses(2017) |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Castelle, Bruno Dodet, Guillaume Masselink, Gerhard Scott, Tim |
author_facet |
Castelle, Bruno Dodet, Guillaume Masselink, Gerhard Scott, Tim |
author_sort |
Castelle, Bruno |
title |
Increased Winter-Mean Wave Height, Variability, and Periodicity in the Northeast Atlantic Over 1949-2017 |
title_short |
Increased Winter-Mean Wave Height, Variability, and Periodicity in the Northeast Atlantic Over 1949-2017 |
title_full |
Increased Winter-Mean Wave Height, Variability, and Periodicity in the Northeast Atlantic Over 1949-2017 |
title_fullStr |
Increased Winter-Mean Wave Height, Variability, and Periodicity in the Northeast Atlantic Over 1949-2017 |
title_full_unstemmed |
Increased Winter-Mean Wave Height, Variability, and Periodicity in the Northeast Atlantic Over 1949-2017 |
title_sort |
increased winter-mean wave height, variability, and periodicity in the northeast atlantic over 1949-2017 |
publisher |
HAL CCSD |
publishDate |
2018 |
url |
https://hal.science/hal-02929081 https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL076884 |
genre |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Northeast Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Northeast Atlantic |
op_source |
ISSN: 0094-8276 EISSN: 1944-8007 Geophysical Research Letters https://hal.science/hal-02929081 Geophysical Research Letters, 2018, 45 (8), pp.3586-3596. ⟨10.1002/2017GL076884⟩ |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1002/2017GL076884 hal-02929081 https://hal.science/hal-02929081 doi:10.1002/2017GL076884 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL076884 |
container_title |
Geophysical Research Letters |
container_volume |
45 |
container_issue |
8 |
container_start_page |
3586 |
op_container_end_page |
3596 |
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1799484816315383808 |