Biomass offsets little or none of permafrost carbon release from soils, streams, and wild␣re: an expert assessment
CT3 EnjS4 International audience As the permafrost region warms, its large organic carbon pool will be increasingly vulnerable to decomposition, combustion, and hydrologic export. Models predict that some portion of this release will be offset by increased production of Arctic and boreal biomass; ho...
Published in: | Environmental Research Letters |
---|---|
Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
Other Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
Published: |
HAL CCSD
2016
|
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | https://sde.hal.science/hal-01288782 https://sde.hal.science/hal-01288782/document https://sde.hal.science/hal-01288782/file/2016_Abott_Enviro%20Res%20Lett_1.pdf https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/3/034014 |
id |
ftunivrennes2hal:oai:HAL:hal-01288782v1 |
---|---|
record_format |
openpolar |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Archive Ouverte de l'Université Rennes (HAL) |
op_collection_id |
ftunivrennes2hal |
language |
English |
topic |
boreal wildfire Arctic permafrost carbon particulate organic carbon dissolved organic carbon coastal erosion Supplementary material for this article is available [SDE.BE]Environmental Sciences/Biodiversity and Ecology |
spellingShingle |
boreal wildfire Arctic permafrost carbon particulate organic carbon dissolved organic carbon coastal erosion Supplementary material for this article is available [SDE.BE]Environmental Sciences/Biodiversity and Ecology Abbott, Benjamin W. Jones, Jeremy Schuur, Edward Chapin, F. Stuart Bowden, William Bret-Harte, M. Syndonia Epstein, Howard Flannigan, Michael Harms, Tamara K. Hollingsworth, Teresa Mack, Michelle Mcguire, A. David Natali, Susan M. Rocha, Adrian Tank, Suzanne E. Turetsky, Merritt R. Vonk, Jorien E. Wickland, Kimberly P. Aiken, George, R. Alexander, Heather Amon, Rainer M.W. Benscoter, Brian, W. Bergeron, Yves Bishop, Kevin Blarquez, Olivier Bond-Lamberty, Ben Breen, Amy, L. Buffam, Ishi Cai, Yihua Carcaillet, Christopher Carey, Sean K. Chen, Jing M. Chen, Han Y.H. Christensen, Torben R. Cooper, Lee W. Cornelissen, J. Hans C. de Groot, William J. Deluca, Thomas H. Dorrepaal, Ellen Fetcher, Ned Finlay, Jacques C. Forbes, Bruce C. French, Nancy H.F. Gauthier, Sylvie Girardin, Martin P. Goetz, Scott Goldammer, Johann G. Gough, Laura Grogan, Paul Guo, Laodong Higuera, Philip E. Hinzman, Larry Hu, Feng Sheng Hugelius, Gustaf Jafarov, Elchin Jandt, Randi Johnstone, Jill F Karlsson, Jan Kasischke, Eric S. Kattner, Gerhard Kelly, Ryan Keuper, Frida Kling, George W. Kortelainen, Pirkko Kouki, Jari Kuhry, Peter Laudon, Hjalmar Laurion, Isabelle Macdonald, Robie Mann, Paul J. Martikainen, Pertti J. Mc Clelland, James W. Molau, Ulf Oberbauer, Steven F. Olefeldt, David Paré, David Parisien, Marc-André Payette, Serge Peng, Changhui Pokrovsky, Oleg S. Rastetter, Edward B. Raymond, Peter A. Raynolds, Martha Rein, Guillermo Reynolds, James F. Robard, Martin Rogers, Bredan M. Schädel, Christina Schaefer, Kevin Schmidt, Inger K. Kappel Shvidenko, Anatoly Sky, Jasper Spencer, Robert G.M. Starr, Gregory Striegl, Robert G. Teisserenc, Roman Tranvik, Lars J Virtanen, Tarmo Welker, Jeffrey M. Zimov, Sergei Biomass offsets little or none of permafrost carbon release from soils, streams, and wild␣re: an expert assessment |
topic_facet |
boreal wildfire Arctic permafrost carbon particulate organic carbon dissolved organic carbon coastal erosion Supplementary material for this article is available [SDE.BE]Environmental Sciences/Biodiversity and Ecology |
description |
CT3 EnjS4 International audience As the permafrost region warms, its large organic carbon pool will be increasingly vulnerable to decomposition, combustion, and hydrologic export. Models predict that some portion of this release will be offset by increased production of Arctic and boreal biomass; however, the lack of robust estimates of net carbon balance increases the risk of further overshooting international emissions targets. Precise empirical or model-based assessments of the critical factors driving carbon balance are unlikely in the near future, so to address this gap, we present estimates from 98 permafrost-region experts of the response of biomass, wild␣re, and hydrologic carbon ␣ux to climate change. Results suggest that contrary to model projections, total permafrost-region biomass could decrease due to water stress and disturbance, factors that are not adequately incorporated in current models. Assessments indicate that end-of-the-century organic carbon release from Arctic rivers and collapsing coastlines could increase by 75% while carbon loss via burning could increase four-fold. Experts identi␣ed water balance, shifts in vegetation community, and permafrost degradation as the key sources of uncertainty in predicting future system response. In combination with previous ␣ndings, results suggest the permafrost region will become a carbon source to the atmosphere by 2100 regardless of warming scenario but that 65%–85% of permafrost carbon release can still be avoided if human emissions are actively reduced. |
author2 |
Institute of Arctic Biology University of Alaska Fairbanks (UAF) Ecosystèmes, biodiversité, évolution Rennes (ECOBIO) Université de Rennes (UR)-Institut Ecologie et Environnement - CNRS Ecologie et Environnement (INEE-CNRS) Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Observatoire des Sciences de l'Univers de Rennes (OSUR) Université de Rennes (UR)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université de Rennes 2 (UR2)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université de Rennes 2 (UR2)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) Laboratoire d'Ecologie des Hydrosystèmes Naturels et Anthropisés (LEHNA) Université Claude Bernard Lyon 1 (UCBL) Université de Lyon-Université de Lyon-École Nationale des Travaux Publics de l'État (ENTPE)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) McMaster University Hamilton, Ontario 955713, National Science Foundation OPP-0806394, Office of Polar Programs Future Forest (Mistra) SITES (Swedish Science Foundation) TOMCAR-Permafrost #277059, Marie Curie International Reintegration |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Abbott, Benjamin W. Jones, Jeremy Schuur, Edward Chapin, F. Stuart Bowden, William Bret-Harte, M. Syndonia Epstein, Howard Flannigan, Michael Harms, Tamara K. Hollingsworth, Teresa Mack, Michelle Mcguire, A. David Natali, Susan M. Rocha, Adrian Tank, Suzanne E. Turetsky, Merritt R. Vonk, Jorien E. Wickland, Kimberly P. Aiken, George, R. Alexander, Heather Amon, Rainer M.W. Benscoter, Brian, W. Bergeron, Yves Bishop, Kevin Blarquez, Olivier Bond-Lamberty, Ben Breen, Amy, L. Buffam, Ishi Cai, Yihua Carcaillet, Christopher Carey, Sean K. Chen, Jing M. Chen, Han Y.H. Christensen, Torben R. Cooper, Lee W. Cornelissen, J. Hans C. de Groot, William J. Deluca, Thomas H. Dorrepaal, Ellen Fetcher, Ned Finlay, Jacques C. Forbes, Bruce C. French, Nancy H.F. Gauthier, Sylvie Girardin, Martin P. Goetz, Scott Goldammer, Johann G. Gough, Laura Grogan, Paul Guo, Laodong Higuera, Philip E. Hinzman, Larry Hu, Feng Sheng Hugelius, Gustaf Jafarov, Elchin Jandt, Randi Johnstone, Jill F Karlsson, Jan Kasischke, Eric S. Kattner, Gerhard Kelly, Ryan Keuper, Frida Kling, George W. Kortelainen, Pirkko Kouki, Jari Kuhry, Peter Laudon, Hjalmar Laurion, Isabelle Macdonald, Robie Mann, Paul J. Martikainen, Pertti J. Mc Clelland, James W. Molau, Ulf Oberbauer, Steven F. Olefeldt, David Paré, David Parisien, Marc-André Payette, Serge Peng, Changhui Pokrovsky, Oleg S. Rastetter, Edward B. Raymond, Peter A. Raynolds, Martha Rein, Guillermo Reynolds, James F. Robard, Martin Rogers, Bredan M. Schädel, Christina Schaefer, Kevin Schmidt, Inger K. Kappel Shvidenko, Anatoly Sky, Jasper Spencer, Robert G.M. Starr, Gregory Striegl, Robert G. Teisserenc, Roman Tranvik, Lars J Virtanen, Tarmo Welker, Jeffrey M. Zimov, Sergei |
author_facet |
Abbott, Benjamin W. Jones, Jeremy Schuur, Edward Chapin, F. Stuart Bowden, William Bret-Harte, M. Syndonia Epstein, Howard Flannigan, Michael Harms, Tamara K. Hollingsworth, Teresa Mack, Michelle Mcguire, A. David Natali, Susan M. Rocha, Adrian Tank, Suzanne E. Turetsky, Merritt R. Vonk, Jorien E. Wickland, Kimberly P. Aiken, George, R. Alexander, Heather Amon, Rainer M.W. Benscoter, Brian, W. Bergeron, Yves Bishop, Kevin Blarquez, Olivier Bond-Lamberty, Ben Breen, Amy, L. Buffam, Ishi Cai, Yihua Carcaillet, Christopher Carey, Sean K. Chen, Jing M. Chen, Han Y.H. Christensen, Torben R. Cooper, Lee W. Cornelissen, J. Hans C. de Groot, William J. Deluca, Thomas H. Dorrepaal, Ellen Fetcher, Ned Finlay, Jacques C. Forbes, Bruce C. French, Nancy H.F. Gauthier, Sylvie Girardin, Martin P. Goetz, Scott Goldammer, Johann G. Gough, Laura Grogan, Paul Guo, Laodong Higuera, Philip E. Hinzman, Larry Hu, Feng Sheng Hugelius, Gustaf Jafarov, Elchin Jandt, Randi Johnstone, Jill F Karlsson, Jan Kasischke, Eric S. Kattner, Gerhard Kelly, Ryan Keuper, Frida Kling, George W. Kortelainen, Pirkko Kouki, Jari Kuhry, Peter Laudon, Hjalmar Laurion, Isabelle Macdonald, Robie Mann, Paul J. Martikainen, Pertti J. Mc Clelland, James W. Molau, Ulf Oberbauer, Steven F. Olefeldt, David Paré, David Parisien, Marc-André Payette, Serge Peng, Changhui Pokrovsky, Oleg S. Rastetter, Edward B. Raymond, Peter A. Raynolds, Martha Rein, Guillermo Reynolds, James F. Robard, Martin Rogers, Bredan M. Schädel, Christina Schaefer, Kevin Schmidt, Inger K. Kappel Shvidenko, Anatoly Sky, Jasper Spencer, Robert G.M. Starr, Gregory Striegl, Robert G. Teisserenc, Roman Tranvik, Lars J Virtanen, Tarmo Welker, Jeffrey M. Zimov, Sergei |
author_sort |
Abbott, Benjamin W. |
title |
Biomass offsets little or none of permafrost carbon release from soils, streams, and wild␣re: an expert assessment |
title_short |
Biomass offsets little or none of permafrost carbon release from soils, streams, and wild␣re: an expert assessment |
title_full |
Biomass offsets little or none of permafrost carbon release from soils, streams, and wild␣re: an expert assessment |
title_fullStr |
Biomass offsets little or none of permafrost carbon release from soils, streams, and wild␣re: an expert assessment |
title_full_unstemmed |
Biomass offsets little or none of permafrost carbon release from soils, streams, and wild␣re: an expert assessment |
title_sort |
biomass offsets little or none of permafrost carbon release from soils, streams, and wild␣re: an expert assessment |
publisher |
HAL CCSD |
publishDate |
2016 |
url |
https://sde.hal.science/hal-01288782 https://sde.hal.science/hal-01288782/document https://sde.hal.science/hal-01288782/file/2016_Abott_Enviro%20Res%20Lett_1.pdf https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/3/034014 |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic Climate change permafrost |
genre_facet |
Arctic Climate change permafrost |
op_source |
ISSN: 1748-9326 Environmental Research Letters https://sde.hal.science/hal-01288782 Environmental Research Letters, 2016, 11 (3), pp.1-13. ⟨10.1088/1748-9326/11/3/034014⟩ http://iopscience.iop.org/journal/1748-9326 |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1088/1748-9326/11/3/034014 hal-01288782 https://sde.hal.science/hal-01288782 https://sde.hal.science/hal-01288782/document https://sde.hal.science/hal-01288782/file/2016_Abott_Enviro%20Res%20Lett_1.pdf doi:10.1088/1748-9326/11/3/034014 PRODINRA: 386636 WOS: 000373401400017 |
op_rights |
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/ info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/3/034014 |
container_title |
Environmental Research Letters |
container_volume |
11 |
container_issue |
3 |
container_start_page |
034014 |
_version_ |
1798840530301353984 |
spelling |
ftunivrennes2hal:oai:HAL:hal-01288782v1 2024-05-12T07:59:21+00:00 Biomass offsets little or none of permafrost carbon release from soils, streams, and wild␣re: an expert assessment Abbott, Benjamin W. Jones, Jeremy Schuur, Edward Chapin, F. Stuart Bowden, William Bret-Harte, M. Syndonia Epstein, Howard Flannigan, Michael Harms, Tamara K. Hollingsworth, Teresa Mack, Michelle Mcguire, A. David Natali, Susan M. Rocha, Adrian Tank, Suzanne E. Turetsky, Merritt R. Vonk, Jorien E. Wickland, Kimberly P. Aiken, George, R. Alexander, Heather Amon, Rainer M.W. Benscoter, Brian, W. Bergeron, Yves Bishop, Kevin Blarquez, Olivier Bond-Lamberty, Ben Breen, Amy, L. Buffam, Ishi Cai, Yihua Carcaillet, Christopher Carey, Sean K. Chen, Jing M. Chen, Han Y.H. Christensen, Torben R. Cooper, Lee W. Cornelissen, J. Hans C. de Groot, William J. Deluca, Thomas H. Dorrepaal, Ellen Fetcher, Ned Finlay, Jacques C. Forbes, Bruce C. French, Nancy H.F. Gauthier, Sylvie Girardin, Martin P. Goetz, Scott Goldammer, Johann G. Gough, Laura Grogan, Paul Guo, Laodong Higuera, Philip E. Hinzman, Larry Hu, Feng Sheng Hugelius, Gustaf Jafarov, Elchin Jandt, Randi Johnstone, Jill F Karlsson, Jan Kasischke, Eric S. Kattner, Gerhard Kelly, Ryan Keuper, Frida Kling, George W. Kortelainen, Pirkko Kouki, Jari Kuhry, Peter Laudon, Hjalmar Laurion, Isabelle Macdonald, Robie Mann, Paul J. Martikainen, Pertti J. Mc Clelland, James W. Molau, Ulf Oberbauer, Steven F. Olefeldt, David Paré, David Parisien, Marc-André Payette, Serge Peng, Changhui Pokrovsky, Oleg S. Rastetter, Edward B. Raymond, Peter A. Raynolds, Martha Rein, Guillermo Reynolds, James F. Robard, Martin Rogers, Bredan M. Schädel, Christina Schaefer, Kevin Schmidt, Inger K. Kappel Shvidenko, Anatoly Sky, Jasper Spencer, Robert G.M. Starr, Gregory Striegl, Robert G. Teisserenc, Roman Tranvik, Lars J Virtanen, Tarmo Welker, Jeffrey M. Zimov, Sergei Institute of Arctic Biology University of Alaska Fairbanks (UAF) Ecosystèmes, biodiversité, évolution Rennes (ECOBIO) Université de Rennes (UR)-Institut Ecologie et Environnement - CNRS Ecologie et Environnement (INEE-CNRS) Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Observatoire des Sciences de l'Univers de Rennes (OSUR) Université de Rennes (UR)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université de Rennes 2 (UR2)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université de Rennes 2 (UR2)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) Laboratoire d'Ecologie des Hydrosystèmes Naturels et Anthropisés (LEHNA) Université Claude Bernard Lyon 1 (UCBL) Université de Lyon-Université de Lyon-École Nationale des Travaux Publics de l'État (ENTPE)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) McMaster University Hamilton, Ontario 955713, National Science Foundation OPP-0806394, Office of Polar Programs Future Forest (Mistra) SITES (Swedish Science Foundation) TOMCAR-Permafrost #277059, Marie Curie International Reintegration 2016-03-01 https://sde.hal.science/hal-01288782 https://sde.hal.science/hal-01288782/document https://sde.hal.science/hal-01288782/file/2016_Abott_Enviro%20Res%20Lett_1.pdf https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/3/034014 en eng HAL CCSD IOP Publishing info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1088/1748-9326/11/3/034014 hal-01288782 https://sde.hal.science/hal-01288782 https://sde.hal.science/hal-01288782/document https://sde.hal.science/hal-01288782/file/2016_Abott_Enviro%20Res%20Lett_1.pdf doi:10.1088/1748-9326/11/3/034014 PRODINRA: 386636 WOS: 000373401400017 http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/ info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess ISSN: 1748-9326 Environmental Research Letters https://sde.hal.science/hal-01288782 Environmental Research Letters, 2016, 11 (3), pp.1-13. ⟨10.1088/1748-9326/11/3/034014⟩ http://iopscience.iop.org/journal/1748-9326 boreal wildfire Arctic permafrost carbon particulate organic carbon dissolved organic carbon coastal erosion Supplementary material for this article is available [SDE.BE]Environmental Sciences/Biodiversity and Ecology info:eu-repo/semantics/article Journal articles 2016 ftunivrennes2hal https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/3/034014 2024-04-17T16:19:03Z CT3 EnjS4 International audience As the permafrost region warms, its large organic carbon pool will be increasingly vulnerable to decomposition, combustion, and hydrologic export. Models predict that some portion of this release will be offset by increased production of Arctic and boreal biomass; however, the lack of robust estimates of net carbon balance increases the risk of further overshooting international emissions targets. Precise empirical or model-based assessments of the critical factors driving carbon balance are unlikely in the near future, so to address this gap, we present estimates from 98 permafrost-region experts of the response of biomass, wild␣re, and hydrologic carbon ␣ux to climate change. Results suggest that contrary to model projections, total permafrost-region biomass could decrease due to water stress and disturbance, factors that are not adequately incorporated in current models. Assessments indicate that end-of-the-century organic carbon release from Arctic rivers and collapsing coastlines could increase by 75% while carbon loss via burning could increase four-fold. Experts identi␣ed water balance, shifts in vegetation community, and permafrost degradation as the key sources of uncertainty in predicting future system response. In combination with previous ␣ndings, results suggest the permafrost region will become a carbon source to the atmosphere by 2100 regardless of warming scenario but that 65%–85% of permafrost carbon release can still be avoided if human emissions are actively reduced. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Climate change permafrost Archive Ouverte de l'Université Rennes (HAL) Arctic Environmental Research Letters 11 3 034014 |