Continent-wide risk assessment for the establishment of nonindigenous species in Antarctica

• Published in: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
• Main Authors: Chown, Steven L., Huiskes, Ad H.L., Gremmen, Niek J.M., Lee, Jennifer E., Terauds, Aleks, Crosbie, Kim, Frenot, Yves, Hughes, Kevin A., Imura, Satoshi, Kiefer, Kate, Lebouvier, Marc, Raymond, Ben, Tsujimoto, Megumu, Ware, Chris, van de Vijver, Bart, Bergstrom, Dana M.
• Other Authors: Centre for Invasion Biology, Stellenbosch University, Netherlands Institute of Ecology (NIOO-KNAW), Australian Antarctic Division (AAD), Australian Government, Department of the Environment and Energy, International Association of Antarctica Tour Operators, Ecosystèmes, biodiversité, évolution Rennes (ECOBIO), Université de Rennes (UR)-Institut Ecologie et Environnement - CNRS Ecologie et Environnement (INEE-CNRS), Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Observatoire des Sciences de l'Univers de Rennes (OSUR), Université de Rennes (UR)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université de Rennes 2 (UR2)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université de Rennes 2 (UR2)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), British Antarctic Survey (BAS), Natural Environment Research Council (NERC), National Institute of Polar Research Tokyo (NiPR), Graduate University for Advanced Studies, The Graduate University for Advanced Studies, Department of Bryophyta and Thallophyta - National Botanic Garden of Belgium, National Botanic Garden of Belgium, Netherlands Polar Program Grant 851.20.040 Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research, International Polar Year Project "Aliens in Antarctica"
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: HAL CCSD 2012
• Subjects: biological invasions; biosecurity; mitigation; propagule pressure; unintentional introductions; [SDE.BE]Environmental Sciences/Biodiversity and Ecology; Antarctic; Antarctic Peninsula; Ross Sea; The Antarctic; Antarc*; Antarctica
• Online Access: https://hal.science/hal-00696311; https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1119787109

International audience Invasive alien species are among the primary causes of biodiversity change globally, with the risks there of broadly understood for most regions of the world. They are similarly thought to be among the most significant conservation threats to Antarctica, especially as climate change proceeds in the region. However, no comprehensive, continent-wide evaluation of the risks to Antarctica posed by such species has been undertaken. Here we do so by sampling, identifying, and mapping the vascular plant propagules carried by all categories of visitors to Antarctica during the International Polar Year's first season (2007-2008) and assessing propagule establishment likelihood based on their identity and origins and on spatial variation in Antarctica's climate. For an evaluation of the situation in 2100, we use modeled climates based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Special Report on Emissions Scenarios Scenario A1B [Nakicenovic N, Swart R, eds (2000) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios: A Special Report of Working Group III of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK)]. Visitors carrying seeds average 9.5 seeds per person, although as vectors, scientists carry greater propagule loads than tourists. Annual tourist numbers (∼33,054) are higher than those of scientists (∼7,085), thus tempering these differences in propagule load. Alien species establishment is currently most likely for the Western Antarctic Peninsula. Recent founder populations of several alien species in this area corroborate these findings. With climate change, risks will grow in the Antarctic Peninsula, Ross Sea, and East Antarctic coastal regions. Our evidence-based assessment demonstrates which parts of Antarctica are at growing risk from alien species that may become invasive and provides the means to mitigate this threat now and into the future as the continent's climate changes.