Development of high-resolution climate projections over Canada in the 21st century

• Main Author: Wu, Yinghui
• Other Authors: Huang, Gordon, Young, Stephanie, Zhu, Hua, Deng, Dianliang, Nasiri, Fuzhan
• Format: Thesis
• Language: English
• Published: Faculty of Graduate Studies and Research, University of Regina 2023
• Subjects: Canada; Regina; permafrost
• Online Access: http://hdl.handle.net/10294/16041; https://ourspace.uregina.ca/bitstream/handle/10294/16041/Wu%2cYinghui_PhD_EVSE_Thesis_2023Spring.pdf

A Thesis Submitted to the Faculty of Graduate Studies and Research In Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Environmental Systems Engineering, University of Regina. xii, 175 p. In this research, high-resolution climate projections over Canada have been developed through the WRF model. The spatial and temporal variations of Canada’s temperature, precipitation, and precipitation extremes in the 21st century have been comprehensively analyzed. Potential mechanisms in terms of temperature, precipitation, and precipitation extremes over Canada have been investigated, and effects of anthropogenic warming on these variables have been revealed. In addition, permafrost degradation under climate change is extended to a global scale, and a dynamic longterm classification scheme for discontinuous permafrost is proposed. The annual mean temperature over Canada is projected to increase by [1.53, 1.98], [2.51, 3.86], and [2.94, 6.19]°C in the 2030s, the 2050s, and the 2080s under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 respectively, with largest increase in winter. The annual total precipitation is projected to increase by [16.33, 68.96], [64.80, 121.62], and [123.62, 184.33] mm in three future periods. It is found that the westerlies have significant impacts on Canada’s precipitation variations, and extreme precipitation frequency are related to ENSO phases. A dynamic SOM-based permafrost classification scheme (DSOMPCS) is developed to provide robust, objective, and detailed classifications for discontinuous permafrost. Linear relationship is found between global temperature increase and permafrost loss. When global temperature increases by 1°C, there will be a 2.5 million km2 of permafrost loss. This research will help provide insights into effects of anthropogenic warming on multiple aspects of climatology. The results can provide valuable information for mitigation and adaptation of climatic changes in a Canadian and global context. Student yes