Predictors and prediction skill for marine cold-air outbreaks over the Barents Sea
Marine cold-air outbreaks (MCAOs) create conditions for hazardous maritime mesocyclones (polar lows) posing risks to marine infrastructure. For marine management, skilful predictions of MCAOs would be highly beneficial. For this reason, we investigate (a) the ability of a seasonal prediction system...
Published in: | Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society |
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Royal Meteorological Society
2021
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Online Access: | https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/98535/ https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/98535/1/Polkova_etal_2021.pdf |
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ftunivreading:oai:centaur.reading.ac.uk:98535 2024-09-15T17:57:54+00:00 Predictors and prediction skill for marine cold-air outbreaks over the Barents Sea Polkova, Iuliia Afargan-Gerstman, Hilla Domeisen, Daniela I. V. King, Martin P. Ruggieri, Paolo Athanasiadis, Panos Dobrynin, Mikhail Aarnes, Øivin Kretschmer, Marlene Baehr, Johanna 2021-07 text https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/98535/ https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/98535/1/Polkova_etal_2021.pdf en eng Royal Meteorological Society https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/98535/1/Polkova_etal_2021.pdf Polkova, I., Afargan-Gerstman, H., Domeisen, D. I. V., King, M. P., Ruggieri, P., Athanasiadis, P., Dobrynin, M., Aarnes, Ø., Kretschmer, M. <https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/view/creators/90010232.html> orcid:0000-0002-2756-9526 and Baehr, J. (2021) Predictors and prediction skill for marine cold-air outbreaks over the Barents Sea. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 147 (738). pp. 2638-2656. ISSN 1477-870X doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.4038 <https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.4038> cc_by_nc_nd_4 Article PeerReviewed 2021 ftunivreading https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.4038 2024-06-25T15:05:04Z Marine cold-air outbreaks (MCAOs) create conditions for hazardous maritime mesocyclones (polar lows) posing risks to marine infrastructure. For marine management, skilful predictions of MCAOs would be highly beneficial. For this reason, we investigate (a) the ability of a seasonal prediction system to predict MCAOs and (b) the possibilities to improve predictions through large-scale causal drivers. Our results show that the seasonal ensemble predictions have high prediction skill for MCAOs over the Nordic Seas for about 20 days starting from November initial conditions. To study causal drivers of MCAOs, we utilize a causal effect network approach applied to the atmospheric reanalysis ERA-Interim and identify local sea surface temperature and atmospheric circulation patterns over Scandinavia as valuable predictors. Prediction skill for MCAOs is further improved up to 40 days by including MCAO predictors in the analysis. Article in Journal/Newspaper Barents Sea Nordic Seas CentAUR: Central Archive at the University of Reading Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 147 738 2638 2656 |
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Open Polar |
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CentAUR: Central Archive at the University of Reading |
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ftunivreading |
language |
English |
description |
Marine cold-air outbreaks (MCAOs) create conditions for hazardous maritime mesocyclones (polar lows) posing risks to marine infrastructure. For marine management, skilful predictions of MCAOs would be highly beneficial. For this reason, we investigate (a) the ability of a seasonal prediction system to predict MCAOs and (b) the possibilities to improve predictions through large-scale causal drivers. Our results show that the seasonal ensemble predictions have high prediction skill for MCAOs over the Nordic Seas for about 20 days starting from November initial conditions. To study causal drivers of MCAOs, we utilize a causal effect network approach applied to the atmospheric reanalysis ERA-Interim and identify local sea surface temperature and atmospheric circulation patterns over Scandinavia as valuable predictors. Prediction skill for MCAOs is further improved up to 40 days by including MCAO predictors in the analysis. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Polkova, Iuliia Afargan-Gerstman, Hilla Domeisen, Daniela I. V. King, Martin P. Ruggieri, Paolo Athanasiadis, Panos Dobrynin, Mikhail Aarnes, Øivin Kretschmer, Marlene Baehr, Johanna |
spellingShingle |
Polkova, Iuliia Afargan-Gerstman, Hilla Domeisen, Daniela I. V. King, Martin P. Ruggieri, Paolo Athanasiadis, Panos Dobrynin, Mikhail Aarnes, Øivin Kretschmer, Marlene Baehr, Johanna Predictors and prediction skill for marine cold-air outbreaks over the Barents Sea |
author_facet |
Polkova, Iuliia Afargan-Gerstman, Hilla Domeisen, Daniela I. V. King, Martin P. Ruggieri, Paolo Athanasiadis, Panos Dobrynin, Mikhail Aarnes, Øivin Kretschmer, Marlene Baehr, Johanna |
author_sort |
Polkova, Iuliia |
title |
Predictors and prediction skill for marine cold-air outbreaks over the Barents Sea |
title_short |
Predictors and prediction skill for marine cold-air outbreaks over the Barents Sea |
title_full |
Predictors and prediction skill for marine cold-air outbreaks over the Barents Sea |
title_fullStr |
Predictors and prediction skill for marine cold-air outbreaks over the Barents Sea |
title_full_unstemmed |
Predictors and prediction skill for marine cold-air outbreaks over the Barents Sea |
title_sort |
predictors and prediction skill for marine cold-air outbreaks over the barents sea |
publisher |
Royal Meteorological Society |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/98535/ https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/98535/1/Polkova_etal_2021.pdf |
genre |
Barents Sea Nordic Seas |
genre_facet |
Barents Sea Nordic Seas |
op_relation |
https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/98535/1/Polkova_etal_2021.pdf Polkova, I., Afargan-Gerstman, H., Domeisen, D. I. V., King, M. P., Ruggieri, P., Athanasiadis, P., Dobrynin, M., Aarnes, Ø., Kretschmer, M. <https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/view/creators/90010232.html> orcid:0000-0002-2756-9526 and Baehr, J. (2021) Predictors and prediction skill for marine cold-air outbreaks over the Barents Sea. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 147 (738). pp. 2638-2656. ISSN 1477-870X doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.4038 <https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.4038> |
op_rights |
cc_by_nc_nd_4 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.4038 |
container_title |
Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society |
container_volume |
147 |
container_issue |
738 |
container_start_page |
2638 |
op_container_end_page |
2656 |
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1810434124967575552 |