Future sea level change under CMIP5 and CMIP6 scenarios from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets
Projections of the sea level contribution from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets rely on atmospheric and oceanic drivers obtained from climate models. The Earth System Models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) generally project greater future warming comp...
Published in: | Geophysical Research Letters |
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Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
Published: |
American Geophysical Union
2021
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Subjects: | |
Online Access: | https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/97975/ https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/97975/9/2020GL091741.pdf https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/97975/1/payne21future.pdf https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL091741 |
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openpolar |
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Open Polar |
collection |
CentAUR: Central Archive at the University of Reading |
op_collection_id |
ftunivreading |
language |
English |
description |
Projections of the sea level contribution from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets rely on atmospheric and oceanic drivers obtained from climate models. The Earth System Models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) generally project greater future warming compared with the previous CMIP5 effort. Here we use four CMIP6 models and a selection of CMIP5 models to force multiple ice sheet models as part of the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6). We find that the projected sea level contribution at 2100 from the ice sheet model ensemble under the CMIP6 scenarios falls within the CMIP5 range for the Antarctic ice sheet but is significantly increased for Greenland. Warmer atmosphere in CMIP6 models results in higher Greenland mass loss due to surface melt. For Antarctica, CMIP6 forcing is similar to CMIP5 and mass gain from increased snowfall counteracts increased loss due to ocean warming. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Payne, Antony J. Nowicki, Sophie Abe-Ouchi, Ayako Agosta, Cecile Alexander, Patrick Albrecht, Torsten Asay-Davis, Xylar Aschwanden, Andy Barthel, Alice Bracegirdle, Thomas J. Calov, Reinhard Chambers, Christopher Choi, Youngmin Cullather, Richard Cuzzone, Joshua Dumas, Christophe Edwards, Tamsin L. Felikson, Denis Fettweis, Xavier Galton-Fenzi, Benjamin K. Goelzer, Heiko Gladstone, Rupert Golledge, Nicholas R. Gregory, Jonathan M. Greve, Ralf Hattermann, Tore Hoffman, Matthew J. Humbert, Angelika Huybrechts, Philippe Jourdain, Nicolas C. Kleiner, Thomas Munneke, Peter Kuipers Larour, Eric Le clec'h, Sebastien Lee, Victoria Leguy, Gunter Lipscomb, William H. Little, Christopher M. Lowry, Daniel P. Morlighem, Mathieu Nias, Isabel Pattyn, Frank Pelle, Tyler Price, Stephen F. Quiquet, Aurelien Reese, Ronja Ruckamp, Martin Schlegel, Nicole-Jeanne Seroussi, Helene Shepherd, Andrew Simon, Erika Slater, Donald Smith, Robin S. Straneo, Fiammetta Sun, Sainan Tarasov, Lev Trusel, Luke D. Van Breedam, Jonas van de Wal, Roderik van den Broeke, Michiel Winkelmann, Ricarda Zhao, Chen Zhang, Tong Zwinger, Thomas |
spellingShingle |
Payne, Antony J. Nowicki, Sophie Abe-Ouchi, Ayako Agosta, Cecile Alexander, Patrick Albrecht, Torsten Asay-Davis, Xylar Aschwanden, Andy Barthel, Alice Bracegirdle, Thomas J. Calov, Reinhard Chambers, Christopher Choi, Youngmin Cullather, Richard Cuzzone, Joshua Dumas, Christophe Edwards, Tamsin L. Felikson, Denis Fettweis, Xavier Galton-Fenzi, Benjamin K. Goelzer, Heiko Gladstone, Rupert Golledge, Nicholas R. Gregory, Jonathan M. Greve, Ralf Hattermann, Tore Hoffman, Matthew J. Humbert, Angelika Huybrechts, Philippe Jourdain, Nicolas C. Kleiner, Thomas Munneke, Peter Kuipers Larour, Eric Le clec'h, Sebastien Lee, Victoria Leguy, Gunter Lipscomb, William H. Little, Christopher M. Lowry, Daniel P. Morlighem, Mathieu Nias, Isabel Pattyn, Frank Pelle, Tyler Price, Stephen F. Quiquet, Aurelien Reese, Ronja Ruckamp, Martin Schlegel, Nicole-Jeanne Seroussi, Helene Shepherd, Andrew Simon, Erika Slater, Donald Smith, Robin S. Straneo, Fiammetta Sun, Sainan Tarasov, Lev Trusel, Luke D. Van Breedam, Jonas van de Wal, Roderik van den Broeke, Michiel Winkelmann, Ricarda Zhao, Chen Zhang, Tong Zwinger, Thomas Future sea level change under CMIP5 and CMIP6 scenarios from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets |
author_facet |
Payne, Antony J. Nowicki, Sophie Abe-Ouchi, Ayako Agosta, Cecile Alexander, Patrick Albrecht, Torsten Asay-Davis, Xylar Aschwanden, Andy Barthel, Alice Bracegirdle, Thomas J. Calov, Reinhard Chambers, Christopher Choi, Youngmin Cullather, Richard Cuzzone, Joshua Dumas, Christophe Edwards, Tamsin L. Felikson, Denis Fettweis, Xavier Galton-Fenzi, Benjamin K. Goelzer, Heiko Gladstone, Rupert Golledge, Nicholas R. Gregory, Jonathan M. Greve, Ralf Hattermann, Tore Hoffman, Matthew J. Humbert, Angelika Huybrechts, Philippe Jourdain, Nicolas C. Kleiner, Thomas Munneke, Peter Kuipers Larour, Eric Le clec'h, Sebastien Lee, Victoria Leguy, Gunter Lipscomb, William H. Little, Christopher M. Lowry, Daniel P. Morlighem, Mathieu Nias, Isabel Pattyn, Frank Pelle, Tyler Price, Stephen F. Quiquet, Aurelien Reese, Ronja Ruckamp, Martin Schlegel, Nicole-Jeanne Seroussi, Helene Shepherd, Andrew Simon, Erika Slater, Donald Smith, Robin S. Straneo, Fiammetta Sun, Sainan Tarasov, Lev Trusel, Luke D. Van Breedam, Jonas van de Wal, Roderik van den Broeke, Michiel Winkelmann, Ricarda Zhao, Chen Zhang, Tong Zwinger, Thomas |
author_sort |
Payne, Antony J. |
title |
Future sea level change under CMIP5 and CMIP6 scenarios from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets |
title_short |
Future sea level change under CMIP5 and CMIP6 scenarios from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets |
title_full |
Future sea level change under CMIP5 and CMIP6 scenarios from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets |
title_fullStr |
Future sea level change under CMIP5 and CMIP6 scenarios from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets |
title_full_unstemmed |
Future sea level change under CMIP5 and CMIP6 scenarios from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets |
title_sort |
future sea level change under cmip5 and cmip6 scenarios from the greenland and antarctic ice sheets |
publisher |
American Geophysical Union |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/97975/ https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/97975/9/2020GL091741.pdf https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/97975/1/payne21future.pdf https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL091741 |
geographic |
Antarctic Greenland The Antarctic |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic Greenland The Antarctic |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Antarctica Greenland Ice Sheet |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Antarctica Greenland Ice Sheet |
op_relation |
https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/97975/9/2020GL091741.pdf https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/97975/1/payne21future.pdf Payne, A. J., Nowicki, S., Abe-Ouchi, A., Agosta, C., Alexander, P., Albrecht, T., Asay-Davis, X., Aschwanden, A., Barthel, A., Bracegirdle, T. J., Calov, R., Chambers, C., Choi, Y., Cullather, R., Cuzzone, J., Dumas, C., Edwards, T. L., Felikson, D., Fettweis, X., Galton-Fenzi, B. K., Goelzer, H., Gladstone, R., Golledge, N. R., Gregory, J. M. <https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/view/creators/90000874.html>, Greve, R., Hattermann, T., Hoffman, M. J., Humbert, A., Huybrechts, P., Jourdain, N. C., Kleiner, T., Munneke, P. K., Larour, E., Le clec'h, S., Lee, V., Leguy, G., Lipscomb, W. H., Little, C. M., Lowry, D. P., Morlighem, M., Nias, I., Pattyn, F., Pelle, T., Price, S. F., Quiquet, A., Reese, R., Ruckamp, M., Schlegel, N.-J., Seroussi, H., Shepherd, A., Simon, E., Slater, D., Smith, R. S., Straneo, F., Sun, S., Tarasov, L., Trusel, L. D., Van Breedam, J., van de Wal, R., van den Broeke, M., Winkelmann, R., Zhao, C. <https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/view/creators/90009860.html>, Zhang, T. and Zwinger, T. (2021) Future sea level change under CMIP5 and CMIP6 scenarios from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. Geophysical Research Letters, 48 (16). e2020GL091741. ISSN 1944-8007 doi: https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL091741 <https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL091741> |
op_rights |
cc_by_4 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL091741 |
container_title |
Geophysical Research Letters |
_version_ |
1801369562702151680 |
spelling |
ftunivreading:oai:centaur.reading.ac.uk:97975 2024-06-09T07:41:08+00:00 Future sea level change under CMIP5 and CMIP6 scenarios from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets Payne, Antony J. Nowicki, Sophie Abe-Ouchi, Ayako Agosta, Cecile Alexander, Patrick Albrecht, Torsten Asay-Davis, Xylar Aschwanden, Andy Barthel, Alice Bracegirdle, Thomas J. Calov, Reinhard Chambers, Christopher Choi, Youngmin Cullather, Richard Cuzzone, Joshua Dumas, Christophe Edwards, Tamsin L. Felikson, Denis Fettweis, Xavier Galton-Fenzi, Benjamin K. Goelzer, Heiko Gladstone, Rupert Golledge, Nicholas R. Gregory, Jonathan M. Greve, Ralf Hattermann, Tore Hoffman, Matthew J. Humbert, Angelika Huybrechts, Philippe Jourdain, Nicolas C. Kleiner, Thomas Munneke, Peter Kuipers Larour, Eric Le clec'h, Sebastien Lee, Victoria Leguy, Gunter Lipscomb, William H. Little, Christopher M. Lowry, Daniel P. Morlighem, Mathieu Nias, Isabel Pattyn, Frank Pelle, Tyler Price, Stephen F. Quiquet, Aurelien Reese, Ronja Ruckamp, Martin Schlegel, Nicole-Jeanne Seroussi, Helene Shepherd, Andrew Simon, Erika Slater, Donald Smith, Robin S. Straneo, Fiammetta Sun, Sainan Tarasov, Lev Trusel, Luke D. Van Breedam, Jonas van de Wal, Roderik van den Broeke, Michiel Winkelmann, Ricarda Zhao, Chen Zhang, Tong Zwinger, Thomas 2021-08-19 text https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/97975/ https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/97975/9/2020GL091741.pdf https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/97975/1/payne21future.pdf https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL091741 en eng American Geophysical Union https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/97975/9/2020GL091741.pdf https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/97975/1/payne21future.pdf Payne, A. J., Nowicki, S., Abe-Ouchi, A., Agosta, C., Alexander, P., Albrecht, T., Asay-Davis, X., Aschwanden, A., Barthel, A., Bracegirdle, T. J., Calov, R., Chambers, C., Choi, Y., Cullather, R., Cuzzone, J., Dumas, C., Edwards, T. L., Felikson, D., Fettweis, X., Galton-Fenzi, B. K., Goelzer, H., Gladstone, R., Golledge, N. R., Gregory, J. M. <https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/view/creators/90000874.html>, Greve, R., Hattermann, T., Hoffman, M. J., Humbert, A., Huybrechts, P., Jourdain, N. C., Kleiner, T., Munneke, P. K., Larour, E., Le clec'h, S., Lee, V., Leguy, G., Lipscomb, W. H., Little, C. M., Lowry, D. P., Morlighem, M., Nias, I., Pattyn, F., Pelle, T., Price, S. F., Quiquet, A., Reese, R., Ruckamp, M., Schlegel, N.-J., Seroussi, H., Shepherd, A., Simon, E., Slater, D., Smith, R. S., Straneo, F., Sun, S., Tarasov, L., Trusel, L. D., Van Breedam, J., van de Wal, R., van den Broeke, M., Winkelmann, R., Zhao, C. <https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/view/creators/90009860.html>, Zhang, T. and Zwinger, T. (2021) Future sea level change under CMIP5 and CMIP6 scenarios from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. Geophysical Research Letters, 48 (16). e2020GL091741. ISSN 1944-8007 doi: https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL091741 <https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL091741> cc_by_4 Article PeerReviewed 2021 ftunivreading https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL091741 2024-05-14T23:40:03Z Projections of the sea level contribution from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets rely on atmospheric and oceanic drivers obtained from climate models. The Earth System Models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) generally project greater future warming compared with the previous CMIP5 effort. Here we use four CMIP6 models and a selection of CMIP5 models to force multiple ice sheet models as part of the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6). We find that the projected sea level contribution at 2100 from the ice sheet model ensemble under the CMIP6 scenarios falls within the CMIP5 range for the Antarctic ice sheet but is significantly increased for Greenland. Warmer atmosphere in CMIP6 models results in higher Greenland mass loss due to surface melt. For Antarctica, CMIP6 forcing is similar to CMIP5 and mass gain from increased snowfall counteracts increased loss due to ocean warming. Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic Antarctica Greenland Ice Sheet CentAUR: Central Archive at the University of Reading Antarctic Greenland The Antarctic Geophysical Research Letters |