Projected land ice contributions to 21st century sea level rise
The land ice contribution to global mean sea level rise has not yet been predicted1 using ice sheet and glacier models for the latest set of socio-economic scenarios, nor using coordinated exploration of uncertainties arising from the various computer models involved. Two recent international projec...
Published in: | Nature |
---|---|
Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
Published: |
Nature Publishing Group
2021
|
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/95839/ https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/95839/1/edwards21antarctica_authors.pdf |
id |
ftunivreading:oai:centaur.reading.ac.uk:95839 |
---|---|
record_format |
openpolar |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
CentAUR: Central Archive at the University of Reading |
op_collection_id |
ftunivreading |
language |
English |
description |
The land ice contribution to global mean sea level rise has not yet been predicted1 using ice sheet and glacier models for the latest set of socio-economic scenarios, nor using coordinated exploration of uncertainties arising from the various computer models involved. Two recent international projects generated a large suite of projections using multiple models2,3,4,5,6,7,8, but primarily used previous-generation scenarios9 and climate models10, and could not fully explore known uncertainties. Here we estimate probability distributions for these projections under the new scenarios11,12 using statistical emulation of the ice sheet and glacier models. We find that limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius would halve the land ice contribution to twenty-first-century sea level rise, relative to current emissions pledges. The median decreases from 25 to 13 centimetres sea level equivalent (SLE) by 2100, with glaciers responsible for half the sea level contribution. The projected Antarctic contribution does not show a clear response to the emissions scenario, owing to uncertainties in the competing processes of increasing ice loss and snowfall accumulation in a warming climate. However, under risk-averse (pessimistic) assumptions, Antarctic ice loss could be five times higher, increasing the median land ice contribution to 42 centimetres SLE under current policies and pledges, with the 95th percentile projection exceeding half a metre even under 1.5 degrees Celsius warming. This would severely limit the possibility of mitigating future coastal flooding. Given this large range (between 13 centimetres SLE using the main projections under 1.5 degrees Celsius warming and 42 centimetres SLE using risk-averse projections under current pledges), adaptation planning for twenty-first-century sea level rise must account for a factor-of-three uncertainty in the land ice contribution until climate policies and the Antarctic response are further constrained. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Edwards, Tamsin L. Nowicki, Sophie Marzeion, Ben Hock, Regine Goelzer, Heiko Seroussi, Helene Jourdain, Nicolas C. Slater, Donald Turner, Fiona Smith, Christopher J. McKenna, Christine M. Simon, Erika Abe-Ouchi, Ayako Gregory, Jonathan M. Larour, Eric Lipscomb, William H. Payne, Antony J. Shepherd, Andrew Agosta, Cecile Alexander, Patrick Albrecht, Torsten Anderson, Brian Asay-Davis, Xylar Aschwanden, Andy Barthel, Alice Bliss, Andrew Calov, Reinhard Chambers, Christopher Champollion, Nicolas Choi, Youngmin Cullather, Richard Cuzzone, Joshua Dumas, Christophe Felikson, Denis Fettweis, Xavier Fujita, Koji Galton-Fenzi, Benjamin K. Gladstone, Rupert Golledge, Nicholas R. Greve, Ralf Hattermann, Tore Hoffman, Matthew J. Humbert, Angelika Huss, Matthias Huybrechts, Philippe Immerzeel, Walter Kleiner, Thomas Kraaijenbrink, Philip Le clec'h, Sebastien Lee, Victoria Leguy, Gunter R. Little, Christopher M. Lowry, Daniel P. Malles, Jan-Hendrik Martin, Daniel F. Maussion, Fabien Morlighem, Mathieu O'Neill, James F. Nias, Isabel Pattyn, Frank Pelle, Tyler Price, Stephen Quiquet, Aurelien Radić, Valentina Reese, Ronja Rounce, David R. Ruckamp, Martin Sakai, Akiko Shafer, Courtney Schlegel, Nicole-Jeanne Shannon, Sarah Smith, Robin S. Straneo, Fiammetta Sun, Sainan Tarasov, Lev Trusel, Luke D. Breedam, Jonas Van van de Wal, Roderik van den Broeke, Michiel Winkelmann, Ricarda Zekollari, Harry Zhao, Chen Zhang, Tong Zwinger, Thomas |
spellingShingle |
Edwards, Tamsin L. Nowicki, Sophie Marzeion, Ben Hock, Regine Goelzer, Heiko Seroussi, Helene Jourdain, Nicolas C. Slater, Donald Turner, Fiona Smith, Christopher J. McKenna, Christine M. Simon, Erika Abe-Ouchi, Ayako Gregory, Jonathan M. Larour, Eric Lipscomb, William H. Payne, Antony J. Shepherd, Andrew Agosta, Cecile Alexander, Patrick Albrecht, Torsten Anderson, Brian Asay-Davis, Xylar Aschwanden, Andy Barthel, Alice Bliss, Andrew Calov, Reinhard Chambers, Christopher Champollion, Nicolas Choi, Youngmin Cullather, Richard Cuzzone, Joshua Dumas, Christophe Felikson, Denis Fettweis, Xavier Fujita, Koji Galton-Fenzi, Benjamin K. Gladstone, Rupert Golledge, Nicholas R. Greve, Ralf Hattermann, Tore Hoffman, Matthew J. Humbert, Angelika Huss, Matthias Huybrechts, Philippe Immerzeel, Walter Kleiner, Thomas Kraaijenbrink, Philip Le clec'h, Sebastien Lee, Victoria Leguy, Gunter R. Little, Christopher M. Lowry, Daniel P. Malles, Jan-Hendrik Martin, Daniel F. Maussion, Fabien Morlighem, Mathieu O'Neill, James F. Nias, Isabel Pattyn, Frank Pelle, Tyler Price, Stephen Quiquet, Aurelien Radić, Valentina Reese, Ronja Rounce, David R. Ruckamp, Martin Sakai, Akiko Shafer, Courtney Schlegel, Nicole-Jeanne Shannon, Sarah Smith, Robin S. Straneo, Fiammetta Sun, Sainan Tarasov, Lev Trusel, Luke D. Breedam, Jonas Van van de Wal, Roderik van den Broeke, Michiel Winkelmann, Ricarda Zekollari, Harry Zhao, Chen Zhang, Tong Zwinger, Thomas Projected land ice contributions to 21st century sea level rise |
author_facet |
Edwards, Tamsin L. Nowicki, Sophie Marzeion, Ben Hock, Regine Goelzer, Heiko Seroussi, Helene Jourdain, Nicolas C. Slater, Donald Turner, Fiona Smith, Christopher J. McKenna, Christine M. Simon, Erika Abe-Ouchi, Ayako Gregory, Jonathan M. Larour, Eric Lipscomb, William H. Payne, Antony J. Shepherd, Andrew Agosta, Cecile Alexander, Patrick Albrecht, Torsten Anderson, Brian Asay-Davis, Xylar Aschwanden, Andy Barthel, Alice Bliss, Andrew Calov, Reinhard Chambers, Christopher Champollion, Nicolas Choi, Youngmin Cullather, Richard Cuzzone, Joshua Dumas, Christophe Felikson, Denis Fettweis, Xavier Fujita, Koji Galton-Fenzi, Benjamin K. Gladstone, Rupert Golledge, Nicholas R. Greve, Ralf Hattermann, Tore Hoffman, Matthew J. Humbert, Angelika Huss, Matthias Huybrechts, Philippe Immerzeel, Walter Kleiner, Thomas Kraaijenbrink, Philip Le clec'h, Sebastien Lee, Victoria Leguy, Gunter R. Little, Christopher M. Lowry, Daniel P. Malles, Jan-Hendrik Martin, Daniel F. Maussion, Fabien Morlighem, Mathieu O'Neill, James F. Nias, Isabel Pattyn, Frank Pelle, Tyler Price, Stephen Quiquet, Aurelien Radić, Valentina Reese, Ronja Rounce, David R. Ruckamp, Martin Sakai, Akiko Shafer, Courtney Schlegel, Nicole-Jeanne Shannon, Sarah Smith, Robin S. Straneo, Fiammetta Sun, Sainan Tarasov, Lev Trusel, Luke D. Breedam, Jonas Van van de Wal, Roderik van den Broeke, Michiel Winkelmann, Ricarda Zekollari, Harry Zhao, Chen Zhang, Tong Zwinger, Thomas |
author_sort |
Edwards, Tamsin L. |
title |
Projected land ice contributions to 21st century sea level rise |
title_short |
Projected land ice contributions to 21st century sea level rise |
title_full |
Projected land ice contributions to 21st century sea level rise |
title_fullStr |
Projected land ice contributions to 21st century sea level rise |
title_full_unstemmed |
Projected land ice contributions to 21st century sea level rise |
title_sort |
projected land ice contributions to 21st century sea level rise |
publisher |
Nature Publishing Group |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/95839/ https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/95839/1/edwards21antarctica_authors.pdf |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Ice Sheet |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Ice Sheet |
op_relation |
https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/95839/1/edwards21antarctica_authors.pdf Edwards, T. L., Nowicki, S., Marzeion, B., Hock, R., Goelzer, H., Seroussi, H., Jourdain, N. C., Slater, D., Turner, F., Smith, C. J., McKenna, C. M., Simon, E., Abe-Ouchi, A., Gregory, J. M. <https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/view/creators/90000874.html> orcid:0000-0003-1296-8644 , Larour, E., Lipscomb, W. H., Payne, A. J., Shepherd, A., Agosta, C., Alexander, P., Albrecht, T., Anderson, B., Asay-Davis, X., Aschwanden, A., Barthel, A., Bliss, A., Calov, R., Chambers, C., Champollion, N., Choi, Y., Cullather, R., Cuzzone, J., Dumas, C., Felikson, D., Fettweis, X., Fujita, K., Galton-Fenzi, B. K., Gladstone, R., Golledge, N. R., Greve, R., Hattermann, T., Hoffman, M. J., Humbert, A., Huss, M., Huybrechts, P., Immerzeel, W., Kleiner, T., Kraaijenbrink, P., Le clec'h, S., Lee, V., Leguy, G. R., Little, C. M., Lowry, D. P., Malles, J.-H., Martin, D. F., Maussion, F., Morlighem, M., O'Neill, J. F., Nias, I., Pattyn, F., Pelle, T., Price, S., Quiquet, A., Radić, V., Reese, R., Rounce, D. R., Ruckamp, M., Sakai, A., Shafer, C., Schlegel, N.-J., Shannon, S., Smith, R. S. <https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/view/creators/90000556.html> orcid:0000-0001-7479-7778 , Straneo, F., Sun, S., Tarasov, L., Trusel, L. D., Breedam, J. V., van de Wal, R., van den Broeke, M., Winkelmann, R., Zekollari, H., Zhao, C., Zhang, T. and Zwinger, T. (2021) Projected land ice contributions to 21st century sea level rise. Nature, 593. pp. 74-82. ISSN 0028-0836 doi: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-021-03302-y <https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-021-03302-y> |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-021-03302-y |
container_title |
Nature |
container_volume |
593 |
container_issue |
7857 |
container_start_page |
74 |
op_container_end_page |
82 |
_version_ |
1810495030072180736 |
spelling |
ftunivreading:oai:centaur.reading.ac.uk:95839 2024-09-15T17:46:42+00:00 Projected land ice contributions to 21st century sea level rise Edwards, Tamsin L. Nowicki, Sophie Marzeion, Ben Hock, Regine Goelzer, Heiko Seroussi, Helene Jourdain, Nicolas C. Slater, Donald Turner, Fiona Smith, Christopher J. McKenna, Christine M. Simon, Erika Abe-Ouchi, Ayako Gregory, Jonathan M. Larour, Eric Lipscomb, William H. Payne, Antony J. Shepherd, Andrew Agosta, Cecile Alexander, Patrick Albrecht, Torsten Anderson, Brian Asay-Davis, Xylar Aschwanden, Andy Barthel, Alice Bliss, Andrew Calov, Reinhard Chambers, Christopher Champollion, Nicolas Choi, Youngmin Cullather, Richard Cuzzone, Joshua Dumas, Christophe Felikson, Denis Fettweis, Xavier Fujita, Koji Galton-Fenzi, Benjamin K. Gladstone, Rupert Golledge, Nicholas R. Greve, Ralf Hattermann, Tore Hoffman, Matthew J. Humbert, Angelika Huss, Matthias Huybrechts, Philippe Immerzeel, Walter Kleiner, Thomas Kraaijenbrink, Philip Le clec'h, Sebastien Lee, Victoria Leguy, Gunter R. Little, Christopher M. Lowry, Daniel P. Malles, Jan-Hendrik Martin, Daniel F. Maussion, Fabien Morlighem, Mathieu O'Neill, James F. Nias, Isabel Pattyn, Frank Pelle, Tyler Price, Stephen Quiquet, Aurelien Radić, Valentina Reese, Ronja Rounce, David R. Ruckamp, Martin Sakai, Akiko Shafer, Courtney Schlegel, Nicole-Jeanne Shannon, Sarah Smith, Robin S. Straneo, Fiammetta Sun, Sainan Tarasov, Lev Trusel, Luke D. Breedam, Jonas Van van de Wal, Roderik van den Broeke, Michiel Winkelmann, Ricarda Zekollari, Harry Zhao, Chen Zhang, Tong Zwinger, Thomas 2021-05-06 text https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/95839/ https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/95839/1/edwards21antarctica_authors.pdf en eng Nature Publishing Group https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/95839/1/edwards21antarctica_authors.pdf Edwards, T. L., Nowicki, S., Marzeion, B., Hock, R., Goelzer, H., Seroussi, H., Jourdain, N. C., Slater, D., Turner, F., Smith, C. J., McKenna, C. M., Simon, E., Abe-Ouchi, A., Gregory, J. M. <https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/view/creators/90000874.html> orcid:0000-0003-1296-8644 , Larour, E., Lipscomb, W. H., Payne, A. J., Shepherd, A., Agosta, C., Alexander, P., Albrecht, T., Anderson, B., Asay-Davis, X., Aschwanden, A., Barthel, A., Bliss, A., Calov, R., Chambers, C., Champollion, N., Choi, Y., Cullather, R., Cuzzone, J., Dumas, C., Felikson, D., Fettweis, X., Fujita, K., Galton-Fenzi, B. K., Gladstone, R., Golledge, N. R., Greve, R., Hattermann, T., Hoffman, M. J., Humbert, A., Huss, M., Huybrechts, P., Immerzeel, W., Kleiner, T., Kraaijenbrink, P., Le clec'h, S., Lee, V., Leguy, G. R., Little, C. M., Lowry, D. P., Malles, J.-H., Martin, D. F., Maussion, F., Morlighem, M., O'Neill, J. F., Nias, I., Pattyn, F., Pelle, T., Price, S., Quiquet, A., Radić, V., Reese, R., Rounce, D. R., Ruckamp, M., Sakai, A., Shafer, C., Schlegel, N.-J., Shannon, S., Smith, R. S. <https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/view/creators/90000556.html> orcid:0000-0001-7479-7778 , Straneo, F., Sun, S., Tarasov, L., Trusel, L. D., Breedam, J. V., van de Wal, R., van den Broeke, M., Winkelmann, R., Zekollari, H., Zhao, C., Zhang, T. and Zwinger, T. (2021) Projected land ice contributions to 21st century sea level rise. Nature, 593. pp. 74-82. ISSN 0028-0836 doi: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-021-03302-y <https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-021-03302-y> Article PeerReviewed 2021 ftunivreading https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-021-03302-y 2024-06-25T15:04:04Z The land ice contribution to global mean sea level rise has not yet been predicted1 using ice sheet and glacier models for the latest set of socio-economic scenarios, nor using coordinated exploration of uncertainties arising from the various computer models involved. Two recent international projects generated a large suite of projections using multiple models2,3,4,5,6,7,8, but primarily used previous-generation scenarios9 and climate models10, and could not fully explore known uncertainties. Here we estimate probability distributions for these projections under the new scenarios11,12 using statistical emulation of the ice sheet and glacier models. We find that limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius would halve the land ice contribution to twenty-first-century sea level rise, relative to current emissions pledges. The median decreases from 25 to 13 centimetres sea level equivalent (SLE) by 2100, with glaciers responsible for half the sea level contribution. The projected Antarctic contribution does not show a clear response to the emissions scenario, owing to uncertainties in the competing processes of increasing ice loss and snowfall accumulation in a warming climate. However, under risk-averse (pessimistic) assumptions, Antarctic ice loss could be five times higher, increasing the median land ice contribution to 42 centimetres SLE under current policies and pledges, with the 95th percentile projection exceeding half a metre even under 1.5 degrees Celsius warming. This would severely limit the possibility of mitigating future coastal flooding. Given this large range (between 13 centimetres SLE using the main projections under 1.5 degrees Celsius warming and 42 centimetres SLE using risk-averse projections under current pledges), adaptation planning for twenty-first-century sea level rise must account for a factor-of-three uncertainty in the land ice contribution until climate policies and the Antarctic response are further constrained. Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic Ice Sheet CentAUR: Central Archive at the University of Reading Nature 593 7857 74 82 |