Seasonal forecasts of the exceptional Northern Hemisphere Winter of 2020

• Published in: Geophysical Research Letters
• Main Authors: Lee, Simon H., Lawrence, Zachary D., Butler, Amy H., Karpechko, Alexey Y.
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: American Geophysical Union 2020
• Subjects: Arctic
• Online Access: https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/93449/; https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/93449/9/2020GL090328.pdf; https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/93449/1/Lee_et_al_2020_GRL_Accepted.pdf

The winter of 2019-20 was dominated by an extremely strong stratospheric polar vor20 tex and positive tropospheric Arctic Oscillation (AO). Here, we analyze forecasts from 6 different prediction systems contributing to the C3S seasonal forecast database. Most performed very strongly, with consistently high skill for January–March 2020 from fore23 casts launched through October–December 2019. Although the magnitude of the anoma24 lies was underestimated, the performance of most prediction systems was extremely high for a positive AO winter relative to the common hindcast climate. Ensemble members which better predicted the extremely strong stratospheric vortex better predicted the extreme tropospheric state. We find a significant relationship between forecasts of the anomalous mid-latitude tropospheric wave pattern in early winter, which destructively interfered with the climatological stationary waves, and the strength of the stratospheric vortex later in the winter. Our results demonstrate a strong interdependence between the accuracy of stratospheric vortex and AO forecasts.