Using causal effect networks to analyze different arctic drivers of midlatitude winter circulation
In recent years, the Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes have suffered from severe winters like the extreme 2012/13 winter in the eastern United States. These cold spells were linked to a meandering upper-tropospheric jet stream pattern and a negative Arctic Oscillation index (AO). However, the nature...
Published in: | Journal of Climate |
---|---|
Main Authors: | , , , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
Published: |
American Meteorological Society
2016
|
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/92431/ https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/92431/1/CEN_arctic_manuscript_final_submission.pdf https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0654.1 |
id |
ftunivreading:oai:centaur.reading.ac.uk:92431 |
---|---|
record_format |
openpolar |
spelling |
ftunivreading:oai:centaur.reading.ac.uk:92431 2024-06-23T07:48:39+00:00 Using causal effect networks to analyze different arctic drivers of midlatitude winter circulation Kretschmer, Marlene Coumou, Dim Donges, Jonathan F. Runge, Jakob 2016-06-01 text https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/92431/ https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/92431/1/CEN_arctic_manuscript_final_submission.pdf https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0654.1 en eng American Meteorological Society https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/92431/1/CEN_arctic_manuscript_final_submission.pdf Kretschmer, M. <https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/view/creators/90010232.html> orcid:0000-0002-2756-9526 , Coumou, D., Donges, J. F. and Runge, J. (2016) Using causal effect networks to analyze different arctic drivers of midlatitude winter circulation. Journal of Climate, 29 (11). pp. 4069-4081. ISSN 1520-0442 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0654.1 <https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0654.1> Article PeerReviewed 2016 ftunivreading https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0654.1 2024-06-11T15:10:14Z In recent years, the Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes have suffered from severe winters like the extreme 2012/13 winter in the eastern United States. These cold spells were linked to a meandering upper-tropospheric jet stream pattern and a negative Arctic Oscillation index (AO). However, the nature of the drivers behind these circulation patterns remains controversial. Various studies have proposed different mechanisms related to changes in the Arctic, most of them related to a reduction in sea ice concentrations or increasing Eurasian snow cover. Here, a novel type of time series analysis, called causal effect networks (CEN), based on graphical models is introduced to assess causal relationships and their time delays between different processes. The effect of different Arctic actors on winter circulation on weekly to monthly time scales is studied, and robust network patterns are found. Barents and Kara sea ice concentrations are detected to be important external drivers of the midlatitude circulation, influencing winter AO via tropospheric mechanisms and through processes involving the stratosphere. Eurasia snow cover is also detected to have a causal effect on sea level pressure in Asia, but its exact role on AO remains unclear. The CEN approach presented in this study overcomes some difficulties in interpreting correlation analyses, complements model experiments for testing hypotheses involving teleconnections, and can be used to assess their validity. The findings confirm that sea ice concentrations in autumn in the Barents and Kara Seas are an important driver of winter circulation in the midlatitudes. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Arctic Kara Sea Sea ice CentAUR: Central Archive at the University of Reading Arctic Kara Sea Journal of Climate 29 11 4069 4081 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
CentAUR: Central Archive at the University of Reading |
op_collection_id |
ftunivreading |
language |
English |
description |
In recent years, the Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes have suffered from severe winters like the extreme 2012/13 winter in the eastern United States. These cold spells were linked to a meandering upper-tropospheric jet stream pattern and a negative Arctic Oscillation index (AO). However, the nature of the drivers behind these circulation patterns remains controversial. Various studies have proposed different mechanisms related to changes in the Arctic, most of them related to a reduction in sea ice concentrations or increasing Eurasian snow cover. Here, a novel type of time series analysis, called causal effect networks (CEN), based on graphical models is introduced to assess causal relationships and their time delays between different processes. The effect of different Arctic actors on winter circulation on weekly to monthly time scales is studied, and robust network patterns are found. Barents and Kara sea ice concentrations are detected to be important external drivers of the midlatitude circulation, influencing winter AO via tropospheric mechanisms and through processes involving the stratosphere. Eurasia snow cover is also detected to have a causal effect on sea level pressure in Asia, but its exact role on AO remains unclear. The CEN approach presented in this study overcomes some difficulties in interpreting correlation analyses, complements model experiments for testing hypotheses involving teleconnections, and can be used to assess their validity. The findings confirm that sea ice concentrations in autumn in the Barents and Kara Seas are an important driver of winter circulation in the midlatitudes. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Kretschmer, Marlene Coumou, Dim Donges, Jonathan F. Runge, Jakob |
spellingShingle |
Kretschmer, Marlene Coumou, Dim Donges, Jonathan F. Runge, Jakob Using causal effect networks to analyze different arctic drivers of midlatitude winter circulation |
author_facet |
Kretschmer, Marlene Coumou, Dim Donges, Jonathan F. Runge, Jakob |
author_sort |
Kretschmer, Marlene |
title |
Using causal effect networks to analyze different arctic drivers of midlatitude winter circulation |
title_short |
Using causal effect networks to analyze different arctic drivers of midlatitude winter circulation |
title_full |
Using causal effect networks to analyze different arctic drivers of midlatitude winter circulation |
title_fullStr |
Using causal effect networks to analyze different arctic drivers of midlatitude winter circulation |
title_full_unstemmed |
Using causal effect networks to analyze different arctic drivers of midlatitude winter circulation |
title_sort |
using causal effect networks to analyze different arctic drivers of midlatitude winter circulation |
publisher |
American Meteorological Society |
publishDate |
2016 |
url |
https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/92431/ https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/92431/1/CEN_arctic_manuscript_final_submission.pdf https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0654.1 |
geographic |
Arctic Kara Sea |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Kara Sea |
genre |
Arctic Arctic Kara Sea Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Arctic Arctic Kara Sea Sea ice |
op_relation |
https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/92431/1/CEN_arctic_manuscript_final_submission.pdf Kretschmer, M. <https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/view/creators/90010232.html> orcid:0000-0002-2756-9526 , Coumou, D., Donges, J. F. and Runge, J. (2016) Using causal effect networks to analyze different arctic drivers of midlatitude winter circulation. Journal of Climate, 29 (11). pp. 4069-4081. ISSN 1520-0442 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0654.1 <https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0654.1> |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0654.1 |
container_title |
Journal of Climate |
container_volume |
29 |
container_issue |
11 |
container_start_page |
4069 |
op_container_end_page |
4081 |
_version_ |
1802638986615717888 |