Evaluation of the consistency of ECMWF ensemble forecasts
An expected benefit of ensemble forecasts is that a sequence of consecutive forecasts valid for the same time will be more consistent than an equivalent sequence of individual forecasts. Inconsistent (jumpy) forecasts can cause users to lose confidence in the forecasting system. We present a first s...
Published in: | Geophysical Research Letters |
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American Geophysical Union
2020
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ftunivreading:oai:centaur.reading.ac.uk:90485 2024-06-23T07:55:06+00:00 Evaluation of the consistency of ECMWF ensemble forecasts Richardson, David S. Cloke, Hannah L. Pappenberger, Florian 2020-06-16 text https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/90485/ https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/90485/17/2020GL087934.pdf https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/90485/2/202004_DRichardson_ensemble_consistency_revised_clean.pdf https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/90485/1/202004_DRichardson_ensemble_consistency_supporting_information.pdf en eng American Geophysical Union https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/90485/17/2020GL087934.pdf https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/90485/2/202004_DRichardson_ensemble_consistency_revised_clean.pdf https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/90485/1/202004_DRichardson_ensemble_consistency_supporting_information.pdf Richardson, D. S., Cloke, H. L. <https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/view/creators/90004850.html> orcid:0000-0002-1472-868X and Pappenberger, F. (2020) Evaluation of the consistency of ECMWF ensemble forecasts. Geophysical Research Letters, 47 (11). e2020GL087934. ISSN 0094-8276 doi: https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL087934 <https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL087934> cc_by_4 Article PeerReviewed 2020 ftunivreading https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL087934 2024-06-11T15:10:14Z An expected benefit of ensemble forecasts is that a sequence of consecutive forecasts valid for the same time will be more consistent than an equivalent sequence of individual forecasts. Inconsistent (jumpy) forecasts can cause users to lose confidence in the forecasting system. We present a first systematic, objective evaluation of the consistency of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ensemble using a measure of forecast divergence that takes account of the full ensemble distribution. Focusing on forecasts of the North Atlantic Oscillation and European Blocking regimes up to two weeks ahead, we identify occasional large inconsistency between successive runs, with the largest jumps tending to occur at 7-9 days lead. However, care is needed in the interpretation of ensemble jumpiness. An apparent clear flip-flop in a single index may hide a more complex predictability issue which may be better understood by examining the ensemble evolution in phase space. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation CentAUR: Central Archive at the University of Reading Flop ENVELOPE(-56.753,-56.753,-61.028,-61.028) Geophysical Research Letters 47 11 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
CentAUR: Central Archive at the University of Reading |
op_collection_id |
ftunivreading |
language |
English |
description |
An expected benefit of ensemble forecasts is that a sequence of consecutive forecasts valid for the same time will be more consistent than an equivalent sequence of individual forecasts. Inconsistent (jumpy) forecasts can cause users to lose confidence in the forecasting system. We present a first systematic, objective evaluation of the consistency of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ensemble using a measure of forecast divergence that takes account of the full ensemble distribution. Focusing on forecasts of the North Atlantic Oscillation and European Blocking regimes up to two weeks ahead, we identify occasional large inconsistency between successive runs, with the largest jumps tending to occur at 7-9 days lead. However, care is needed in the interpretation of ensemble jumpiness. An apparent clear flip-flop in a single index may hide a more complex predictability issue which may be better understood by examining the ensemble evolution in phase space. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Richardson, David S. Cloke, Hannah L. Pappenberger, Florian |
spellingShingle |
Richardson, David S. Cloke, Hannah L. Pappenberger, Florian Evaluation of the consistency of ECMWF ensemble forecasts |
author_facet |
Richardson, David S. Cloke, Hannah L. Pappenberger, Florian |
author_sort |
Richardson, David S. |
title |
Evaluation of the consistency of ECMWF ensemble forecasts |
title_short |
Evaluation of the consistency of ECMWF ensemble forecasts |
title_full |
Evaluation of the consistency of ECMWF ensemble forecasts |
title_fullStr |
Evaluation of the consistency of ECMWF ensemble forecasts |
title_full_unstemmed |
Evaluation of the consistency of ECMWF ensemble forecasts |
title_sort |
evaluation of the consistency of ecmwf ensemble forecasts |
publisher |
American Geophysical Union |
publishDate |
2020 |
url |
https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/90485/ https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/90485/17/2020GL087934.pdf https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/90485/2/202004_DRichardson_ensemble_consistency_revised_clean.pdf https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/90485/1/202004_DRichardson_ensemble_consistency_supporting_information.pdf |
long_lat |
ENVELOPE(-56.753,-56.753,-61.028,-61.028) |
geographic |
Flop |
geographic_facet |
Flop |
genre |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
op_relation |
https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/90485/17/2020GL087934.pdf https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/90485/2/202004_DRichardson_ensemble_consistency_revised_clean.pdf https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/90485/1/202004_DRichardson_ensemble_consistency_supporting_information.pdf Richardson, D. S., Cloke, H. L. <https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/view/creators/90004850.html> orcid:0000-0002-1472-868X and Pappenberger, F. (2020) Evaluation of the consistency of ECMWF ensemble forecasts. Geophysical Research Letters, 47 (11). e2020GL087934. ISSN 0094-8276 doi: https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL087934 <https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL087934> |
op_rights |
cc_by_4 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL087934 |
container_title |
Geophysical Research Letters |
container_volume |
47 |
container_issue |
11 |
_version_ |
1802647522814984192 |