Beyond forcing scenarios: predicting climate change through response operators in a coupled general circulation model
Global Climate Models are key tools for predicting the future response of the climate system to a variety of natural and anthropogenic forcings. Here we show how to use statistical mechanics to construct operators able to flexibly predict climate change for a variety of climatic variables of interes...
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ftunivreading:oai:centaur.reading.ac.uk:90344 2024-09-15T17:48:31+00:00 Beyond forcing scenarios: predicting climate change through response operators in a coupled general circulation model Lembo, Valerio Lucarini, Valerio Ragone, Francesco 2020 text https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/90344/ https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/90344/8/s41598-020-65297-2.pdf https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/90344/1/1912.03996.pdf en eng Nature Publishing Group https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/90344/8/s41598-020-65297-2.pdf https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/90344/1/1912.03996.pdf Lembo, V., Lucarini, V. <https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/view/creators/90001083.html> orcid:0000-0001-9392-1471 and Ragone, F. (2020) Beyond forcing scenarios: predicting climate change through response operators in a coupled general circulation model. Scientific Reports, 10 (1). 8668. ISSN 2045-2322 doi: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-65297-2 <https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-65297-2> cc_by_4 Article PeerReviewed 2020 ftunivreading https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-65297-2 2024-06-25T15:04:04Z Global Climate Models are key tools for predicting the future response of the climate system to a variety of natural and anthropogenic forcings. Here we show how to use statistical mechanics to construct operators able to flexibly predict climate change for a variety of climatic variables of interest. We perform our study on a fully coupled model - MPI-ESM v.1.2 - and for the first time we prove the effectiveness of response theory in predicting future climate response to CO2 increase on a vast range of temporal scales, from inter-annual to centennial, and for very diverse climatic quantities. We investigate within a unified perspective the transient climate response and the equilibrium climate sensitivity and assess the role of fast and slow processes. The prediction of the ocean heat uptake highlights the very slow relaxation to a newly established steady state. The change in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) is accurately predicted. The AMOC strength is initially reduced and then undergoes a slow and only partial recovery. The ACC strength initially increases as a result of changes in the wind stress, then undergoes a slowdown, followed by a recovery leading to a overshoot with respect to the initial value. Finally, we are able to predict accurately the temperature change in the Northern Atlantic. Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic CentAUR: Central Archive at the University of Reading Scientific Reports 10 1 |
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CentAUR: Central Archive at the University of Reading |
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English |
description |
Global Climate Models are key tools for predicting the future response of the climate system to a variety of natural and anthropogenic forcings. Here we show how to use statistical mechanics to construct operators able to flexibly predict climate change for a variety of climatic variables of interest. We perform our study on a fully coupled model - MPI-ESM v.1.2 - and for the first time we prove the effectiveness of response theory in predicting future climate response to CO2 increase on a vast range of temporal scales, from inter-annual to centennial, and for very diverse climatic quantities. We investigate within a unified perspective the transient climate response and the equilibrium climate sensitivity and assess the role of fast and slow processes. The prediction of the ocean heat uptake highlights the very slow relaxation to a newly established steady state. The change in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) is accurately predicted. The AMOC strength is initially reduced and then undergoes a slow and only partial recovery. The ACC strength initially increases as a result of changes in the wind stress, then undergoes a slowdown, followed by a recovery leading to a overshoot with respect to the initial value. Finally, we are able to predict accurately the temperature change in the Northern Atlantic. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Lembo, Valerio Lucarini, Valerio Ragone, Francesco |
spellingShingle |
Lembo, Valerio Lucarini, Valerio Ragone, Francesco Beyond forcing scenarios: predicting climate change through response operators in a coupled general circulation model |
author_facet |
Lembo, Valerio Lucarini, Valerio Ragone, Francesco |
author_sort |
Lembo, Valerio |
title |
Beyond forcing scenarios: predicting climate change through response operators in a coupled general circulation model |
title_short |
Beyond forcing scenarios: predicting climate change through response operators in a coupled general circulation model |
title_full |
Beyond forcing scenarios: predicting climate change through response operators in a coupled general circulation model |
title_fullStr |
Beyond forcing scenarios: predicting climate change through response operators in a coupled general circulation model |
title_full_unstemmed |
Beyond forcing scenarios: predicting climate change through response operators in a coupled general circulation model |
title_sort |
beyond forcing scenarios: predicting climate change through response operators in a coupled general circulation model |
publisher |
Nature Publishing Group |
publishDate |
2020 |
url |
https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/90344/ https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/90344/8/s41598-020-65297-2.pdf https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/90344/1/1912.03996.pdf |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic |
op_relation |
https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/90344/8/s41598-020-65297-2.pdf https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/90344/1/1912.03996.pdf Lembo, V., Lucarini, V. <https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/view/creators/90001083.html> orcid:0000-0001-9392-1471 and Ragone, F. (2020) Beyond forcing scenarios: predicting climate change through response operators in a coupled general circulation model. Scientific Reports, 10 (1). 8668. ISSN 2045-2322 doi: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-65297-2 <https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-65297-2> |
op_rights |
cc_by_4 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-65297-2 |
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Scientific Reports |
container_volume |
10 |
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1 |
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1810289805439795200 |