Does increased atmospheric resolution improve seasonal climate predictions?
We assess the impact of atmospheric horizontal resolution on the prediction skill and fidelity of seasonal forecasts. We show the response to an increase of atmospheric resolution from 0.8 to 0.3⁰ horizontal grid spacing in parallel ensembles of forecasts. Changes in the prediction skill of major mo...
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ftunivreading:oai:centaur.reading.ac.uk:84866 2024-06-23T07:55:08+00:00 Does increased atmospheric resolution improve seasonal climate predictions? Scaife, Adam A. Camp, Joanne Comer, Ruth Davis, Philip Dunstone, Nick Gordon, Margaret MacLachlan, Craig Martin, Nicola Nie, Yu Ren, Hong-Li Roberts, Malcolm Robinson, Walter Smith, Doug Vidale, Pier Luigi 2019-07-01 text https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/84866/ https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/84866/1/asl.922.pdf en eng Wiley https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/84866/1/asl.922.pdf Scaife, A. A., Camp, J., Comer, R., Davis, P., Dunstone, N., Gordon, M., MacLachlan, C., Martin, N., Nie, Y., Ren, H.-L., Roberts, M., Robinson, W., Smith, D. and Vidale, P. L. <https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/view/creators/90000796.html> orcid:0000-0002-1800-8460 (2019) Does increased atmospheric resolution improve seasonal climate predictions? Atmospheric Science Letters, 20 (8). e922. ISSN 1530-261X doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/asl.922 <https://doi.org/10.1002/asl.922> cc_by_4 Article PeerReviewed 2019 ftunivreading 2024-06-11T15:09:12Z We assess the impact of atmospheric horizontal resolution on the prediction skill and fidelity of seasonal forecasts. We show the response to an increase of atmospheric resolution from 0.8 to 0.3⁰ horizontal grid spacing in parallel ensembles of forecasts. Changes in the prediction skill of major modes of tropical El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and extratropical North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) variability are small and not detected and there is no discernible impact on the weak signal-to-noise ratio in seasonal predictions of the winter NAO at this range of resolutions. Although studies have shown improvements in the simulation of tropical cyclones as model resolution is increased, we find little impact on seasonal prediction skill of either their numbers or intensity. Over this range of resolutions it appears that the benefit of increasing atmospheric resolution to seasonal climate predictions is minimal. However, at yet finer scales there appears to be increased eddy feedback which could strengthen weak signals in predictions of the NAO. Until prediction systems can be run operationally at these scales, it may be better to use additional computing resources for other enhancements such as increased ensemble size, for which there is a clear benefit in extratropical seasonal prediction skill. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation CentAUR: Central Archive at the University of Reading |
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Open Polar |
collection |
CentAUR: Central Archive at the University of Reading |
op_collection_id |
ftunivreading |
language |
English |
description |
We assess the impact of atmospheric horizontal resolution on the prediction skill and fidelity of seasonal forecasts. We show the response to an increase of atmospheric resolution from 0.8 to 0.3⁰ horizontal grid spacing in parallel ensembles of forecasts. Changes in the prediction skill of major modes of tropical El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and extratropical North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) variability are small and not detected and there is no discernible impact on the weak signal-to-noise ratio in seasonal predictions of the winter NAO at this range of resolutions. Although studies have shown improvements in the simulation of tropical cyclones as model resolution is increased, we find little impact on seasonal prediction skill of either their numbers or intensity. Over this range of resolutions it appears that the benefit of increasing atmospheric resolution to seasonal climate predictions is minimal. However, at yet finer scales there appears to be increased eddy feedback which could strengthen weak signals in predictions of the NAO. Until prediction systems can be run operationally at these scales, it may be better to use additional computing resources for other enhancements such as increased ensemble size, for which there is a clear benefit in extratropical seasonal prediction skill. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Scaife, Adam A. Camp, Joanne Comer, Ruth Davis, Philip Dunstone, Nick Gordon, Margaret MacLachlan, Craig Martin, Nicola Nie, Yu Ren, Hong-Li Roberts, Malcolm Robinson, Walter Smith, Doug Vidale, Pier Luigi |
spellingShingle |
Scaife, Adam A. Camp, Joanne Comer, Ruth Davis, Philip Dunstone, Nick Gordon, Margaret MacLachlan, Craig Martin, Nicola Nie, Yu Ren, Hong-Li Roberts, Malcolm Robinson, Walter Smith, Doug Vidale, Pier Luigi Does increased atmospheric resolution improve seasonal climate predictions? |
author_facet |
Scaife, Adam A. Camp, Joanne Comer, Ruth Davis, Philip Dunstone, Nick Gordon, Margaret MacLachlan, Craig Martin, Nicola Nie, Yu Ren, Hong-Li Roberts, Malcolm Robinson, Walter Smith, Doug Vidale, Pier Luigi |
author_sort |
Scaife, Adam A. |
title |
Does increased atmospheric resolution improve seasonal climate predictions? |
title_short |
Does increased atmospheric resolution improve seasonal climate predictions? |
title_full |
Does increased atmospheric resolution improve seasonal climate predictions? |
title_fullStr |
Does increased atmospheric resolution improve seasonal climate predictions? |
title_full_unstemmed |
Does increased atmospheric resolution improve seasonal climate predictions? |
title_sort |
does increased atmospheric resolution improve seasonal climate predictions? |
publisher |
Wiley |
publishDate |
2019 |
url |
https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/84866/ https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/84866/1/asl.922.pdf |
genre |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
op_relation |
https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/84866/1/asl.922.pdf Scaife, A. A., Camp, J., Comer, R., Davis, P., Dunstone, N., Gordon, M., MacLachlan, C., Martin, N., Nie, Y., Ren, H.-L., Roberts, M., Robinson, W., Smith, D. and Vidale, P. L. <https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/view/creators/90000796.html> orcid:0000-0002-1800-8460 (2019) Does increased atmospheric resolution improve seasonal climate predictions? Atmospheric Science Letters, 20 (8). e922. ISSN 1530-261X doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/asl.922 <https://doi.org/10.1002/asl.922> |
op_rights |
cc_by_4 |
_version_ |
1802647589133221888 |