Global glacier volume projections under high-end climate change scenarios
The Paris agreement aims to hold global warming to well below 2°C and to pursue efforts to limit it to 1.5°C relative to the pre-industrial period. Recent estimates based on population growth and intended carbon emissions from participant countries, suggest global warming may exceed this ambitious t...
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ftunivreading:oai:centaur.reading.ac.uk:81242 2023-09-05T13:11:31+02:00 Global glacier volume projections under high-end climate change scenarios Shannon, Sarah Smith, Robin Wiltshire, Andy Payne, Tony Huss, Matthias Betts, Richard Caesar, John Koutroulis, Aris Jones, Darren Harrison, Stephan 2019-03-01 text https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/81242/ https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/81242/9/tc-13-325-2019.pdf https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/81242/1/tc-2018-35.pdf en eng European Geosciences Union https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/81242/9/tc-13-325-2019.pdf https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/81242/1/tc-2018-35.pdf Shannon, Sarah, Smith, Robin, Wiltshire, Andy, Payne, Tony, Huss, Matthias, Betts, Richard, Caesar, John, Koutroulis, Aris, Jones, Darren and Harrison, Stephan (2019) Global glacier volume projections under high-end climate change scenarios. The Cryosphere, 13. pp. 325-350. ISSN 1994-0424 doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2018-35 <https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2018-35> cc_by_4 Article PeerReviewed 2019 ftunivreading https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2018-35 2023-08-14T18:09:01Z The Paris agreement aims to hold global warming to well below 2°C and to pursue efforts to limit it to 1.5°C relative to the pre-industrial period. Recent estimates based on population growth and intended carbon emissions from participant countries, suggest global warming may exceed this ambitious target. Here we present glacier volume projections for the end of this century, under a range of high-end climate change scenarios, defined as exceeding +2°C global average warming relative to the preindustrial period. Glacier volume is modelled by developing an elevation-dependent mass balance model for the Joint UK Land Environmental Simulator (JULES). To do this, we modify JULES to include glaciated and un-glaciated surfaces that can exist at multiple heights within a single grid-box. Present day mass balance is calibrated by tuning albedo, wind speed, precipitation and temperature lapse rates to obtain the best agreement with observed mass balance profiles. JULES is forced with an ensemble of six Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models which were downscaled using the high resolution HadGEM3-A atmosphere only global climate model. The ensemble mean volume loss at the end of the century plus/minus one standard deviation is, minus;64±5% for all glaciers excluding those on the peripheral of the Antarctic ice sheet. The uncertainty in the multi-model mean is rather small and caused by the sensitivity of HadGEM3-A to the boundary conditions supplied by the CMIP5 models. The regions which lose more than 75% of their initial volume by the end of the century are; Alaska, Western Canada and US, Iceland, Scandinavia, Russian Arctic, Central Europe, Caucasus, High Mountain Asia, Low Latitudes, Southern Andes and New Zealand. The ensemble mean ice loss expressed in sea-level equivalent contribution is 215.2±21.3mm. The largest contributors to sea level rise are Alaska (44.6±1.1mm), Arctic Canada North and South (34.9±3.0mm), Russian Arctic (33.3±4.8mm), Greenland (20.1±4.4), High Mountain Asia (combined ... Article in Journal/Newspaper albedo Antarc* Antarctic Arctic Climate change glacier glacier glacier glacier* glaciers Global warming Greenland Ice Sheet Iceland The Cryosphere Alaska CentAUR: Central Archive at the University of Reading Arctic Antarctic The Antarctic Canada Greenland New Zealand Jules ENVELOPE(140.917,140.917,-66.742,-66.742) |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
CentAUR: Central Archive at the University of Reading |
op_collection_id |
ftunivreading |
language |
English |
description |
The Paris agreement aims to hold global warming to well below 2°C and to pursue efforts to limit it to 1.5°C relative to the pre-industrial period. Recent estimates based on population growth and intended carbon emissions from participant countries, suggest global warming may exceed this ambitious target. Here we present glacier volume projections for the end of this century, under a range of high-end climate change scenarios, defined as exceeding +2°C global average warming relative to the preindustrial period. Glacier volume is modelled by developing an elevation-dependent mass balance model for the Joint UK Land Environmental Simulator (JULES). To do this, we modify JULES to include glaciated and un-glaciated surfaces that can exist at multiple heights within a single grid-box. Present day mass balance is calibrated by tuning albedo, wind speed, precipitation and temperature lapse rates to obtain the best agreement with observed mass balance profiles. JULES is forced with an ensemble of six Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models which were downscaled using the high resolution HadGEM3-A atmosphere only global climate model. The ensemble mean volume loss at the end of the century plus/minus one standard deviation is, minus;64±5% for all glaciers excluding those on the peripheral of the Antarctic ice sheet. The uncertainty in the multi-model mean is rather small and caused by the sensitivity of HadGEM3-A to the boundary conditions supplied by the CMIP5 models. The regions which lose more than 75% of their initial volume by the end of the century are; Alaska, Western Canada and US, Iceland, Scandinavia, Russian Arctic, Central Europe, Caucasus, High Mountain Asia, Low Latitudes, Southern Andes and New Zealand. The ensemble mean ice loss expressed in sea-level equivalent contribution is 215.2±21.3mm. The largest contributors to sea level rise are Alaska (44.6±1.1mm), Arctic Canada North and South (34.9±3.0mm), Russian Arctic (33.3±4.8mm), Greenland (20.1±4.4), High Mountain Asia (combined ... |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Shannon, Sarah Smith, Robin Wiltshire, Andy Payne, Tony Huss, Matthias Betts, Richard Caesar, John Koutroulis, Aris Jones, Darren Harrison, Stephan |
spellingShingle |
Shannon, Sarah Smith, Robin Wiltshire, Andy Payne, Tony Huss, Matthias Betts, Richard Caesar, John Koutroulis, Aris Jones, Darren Harrison, Stephan Global glacier volume projections under high-end climate change scenarios |
author_facet |
Shannon, Sarah Smith, Robin Wiltshire, Andy Payne, Tony Huss, Matthias Betts, Richard Caesar, John Koutroulis, Aris Jones, Darren Harrison, Stephan |
author_sort |
Shannon, Sarah |
title |
Global glacier volume projections under high-end climate change scenarios |
title_short |
Global glacier volume projections under high-end climate change scenarios |
title_full |
Global glacier volume projections under high-end climate change scenarios |
title_fullStr |
Global glacier volume projections under high-end climate change scenarios |
title_full_unstemmed |
Global glacier volume projections under high-end climate change scenarios |
title_sort |
global glacier volume projections under high-end climate change scenarios |
publisher |
European Geosciences Union |
publishDate |
2019 |
url |
https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/81242/ https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/81242/9/tc-13-325-2019.pdf https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/81242/1/tc-2018-35.pdf |
long_lat |
ENVELOPE(140.917,140.917,-66.742,-66.742) |
geographic |
Arctic Antarctic The Antarctic Canada Greenland New Zealand Jules |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Antarctic The Antarctic Canada Greenland New Zealand Jules |
genre |
albedo Antarc* Antarctic Arctic Climate change glacier glacier glacier glacier* glaciers Global warming Greenland Ice Sheet Iceland The Cryosphere Alaska |
genre_facet |
albedo Antarc* Antarctic Arctic Climate change glacier glacier glacier glacier* glaciers Global warming Greenland Ice Sheet Iceland The Cryosphere Alaska |
op_relation |
https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/81242/9/tc-13-325-2019.pdf https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/81242/1/tc-2018-35.pdf Shannon, Sarah, Smith, Robin, Wiltshire, Andy, Payne, Tony, Huss, Matthias, Betts, Richard, Caesar, John, Koutroulis, Aris, Jones, Darren and Harrison, Stephan (2019) Global glacier volume projections under high-end climate change scenarios. The Cryosphere, 13. pp. 325-350. ISSN 1994-0424 doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2018-35 <https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2018-35> |
op_rights |
cc_by_4 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2018-35 |
_version_ |
1776204981828845568 |