A mechanism for the recently increased interdecadal variability of the Silk Road Pattern
The Silk Road Pattern (SRP) teleconnection manifests in summer over Eurasia, where it is associated with substantial temperature and precipitation anomalies. The SRP varies on interannual and decadal scales; reanalyses show an increase in its decadal variability around the mid-1970s. Understanding w...
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American Meteorological Society
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ftunivreading:oai:centaur.reading.ac.uk:80821 2024-09-15T18:23:35+00:00 A mechanism for the recently increased interdecadal variability of the Silk Road Pattern Stephan, Claudia C. Klingaman, Nicholas P. Turner, Andrew G. 2019-02 text https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/80821/ https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/80821/8/jcli-d-18-0405.1.pdf https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/80821/1/JCLI_revised2_clean.pdf en eng American Meteorological Society https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/80821/8/jcli-d-18-0405.1.pdf https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/80821/1/JCLI_revised2_clean.pdf Stephan, C. C. <https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/view/creators/90007287.html>, Klingaman, N. P. <https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/view/creators/90001096.html> orcid:0000-0002-2927-9303 and Turner, A. G. <https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/view/creators/90000510.html> orcid:0000-0002-0642-6876 (2019) A mechanism for the recently increased interdecadal variability of the Silk Road Pattern. Journal of Climate, 32. pp. 717-736. ISSN 1520-0442 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0405.1 <https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0405.1> Article PeerReviewed 2019 ftunivreading https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0405.1 2024-06-25T15:02:19Z The Silk Road Pattern (SRP) teleconnection manifests in summer over Eurasia, where it is associated with substantial temperature and precipitation anomalies. The SRP varies on interannual and decadal scales; reanalyses show an increase in its decadal variability around the mid-1970s. Understanding what drives this decadal variability is particularly important, because contemporary seasonal prediction models struggle to predict the phase of the SRP. Based on analysis of observations and multiple targeted numerical experiments, this study proposes a mechanism for decadal SRP variability. Causal Effect Network analysis confirms a positive feedback loop between the eastern portion of the SRP pattern and vertical motion over India on synoptic timescales. Anomalies over a larger region of subtropical South Asia can reinforce a background state that projects onto the positive or negative SRP through this mechanism. This effect is isolated and confirmed in targeted numerical simulations. The transition from weak to strong decadal variability in the mid-1970s is consistent with more spatially coherent interannual precipitation variability over subtropical South Asia. Furthermore, results suggest that oceanic variability does not directly force the SRP. Nevertheless, sea surface temperatures in the North Atlantic and the North Pacific may indirectly affect the SRP by modulating South Asian rainfall on decadal timescales. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic CentAUR: Central Archive at the University of Reading Journal of Climate 32 3 717 736 |
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Open Polar |
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CentAUR: Central Archive at the University of Reading |
op_collection_id |
ftunivreading |
language |
English |
description |
The Silk Road Pattern (SRP) teleconnection manifests in summer over Eurasia, where it is associated with substantial temperature and precipitation anomalies. The SRP varies on interannual and decadal scales; reanalyses show an increase in its decadal variability around the mid-1970s. Understanding what drives this decadal variability is particularly important, because contemporary seasonal prediction models struggle to predict the phase of the SRP. Based on analysis of observations and multiple targeted numerical experiments, this study proposes a mechanism for decadal SRP variability. Causal Effect Network analysis confirms a positive feedback loop between the eastern portion of the SRP pattern and vertical motion over India on synoptic timescales. Anomalies over a larger region of subtropical South Asia can reinforce a background state that projects onto the positive or negative SRP through this mechanism. This effect is isolated and confirmed in targeted numerical simulations. The transition from weak to strong decadal variability in the mid-1970s is consistent with more spatially coherent interannual precipitation variability over subtropical South Asia. Furthermore, results suggest that oceanic variability does not directly force the SRP. Nevertheless, sea surface temperatures in the North Atlantic and the North Pacific may indirectly affect the SRP by modulating South Asian rainfall on decadal timescales. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Stephan, Claudia C. Klingaman, Nicholas P. Turner, Andrew G. |
spellingShingle |
Stephan, Claudia C. Klingaman, Nicholas P. Turner, Andrew G. A mechanism for the recently increased interdecadal variability of the Silk Road Pattern |
author_facet |
Stephan, Claudia C. Klingaman, Nicholas P. Turner, Andrew G. |
author_sort |
Stephan, Claudia C. |
title |
A mechanism for the recently increased interdecadal variability of the Silk Road Pattern |
title_short |
A mechanism for the recently increased interdecadal variability of the Silk Road Pattern |
title_full |
A mechanism for the recently increased interdecadal variability of the Silk Road Pattern |
title_fullStr |
A mechanism for the recently increased interdecadal variability of the Silk Road Pattern |
title_full_unstemmed |
A mechanism for the recently increased interdecadal variability of the Silk Road Pattern |
title_sort |
mechanism for the recently increased interdecadal variability of the silk road pattern |
publisher |
American Meteorological Society |
publishDate |
2019 |
url |
https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/80821/ https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/80821/8/jcli-d-18-0405.1.pdf https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/80821/1/JCLI_revised2_clean.pdf |
genre |
North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic |
op_relation |
https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/80821/8/jcli-d-18-0405.1.pdf https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/80821/1/JCLI_revised2_clean.pdf Stephan, C. C. <https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/view/creators/90007287.html>, Klingaman, N. P. <https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/view/creators/90001096.html> orcid:0000-0002-2927-9303 and Turner, A. G. <https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/view/creators/90000510.html> orcid:0000-0002-0642-6876 (2019) A mechanism for the recently increased interdecadal variability of the Silk Road Pattern. Journal of Climate, 32. pp. 717-736. ISSN 1520-0442 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0405.1 <https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0405.1> |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0405.1 |
container_title |
Journal of Climate |
container_volume |
32 |
container_issue |
3 |
container_start_page |
717 |
op_container_end_page |
736 |
_version_ |
1810463813536841728 |