Reemergence of Antarctic sea ice predictability and its link to deep ocean mixing in global climate models
Satellite observations show a small overall increase in Antarctic sea ice extent (SIE) over the period 1979–2015. However, this upward trend needs to be balanced against recent pronounced SIE fluctuations occurring there. In the space of 3 years, the SIE sank from its highest value ever reached in S...
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ftunivreading:oai:centaur.reading.ac.uk:80787 2024-09-15T17:46:25+00:00 Reemergence of Antarctic sea ice predictability and its link to deep ocean mixing in global climate models Marchi, Sylvain Fichefet, Thierry Goosse, Hugues Zunz, Violette Tietsche, Steffen Day, Jonathan Hawkins, Ed 2019-03 https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/80787/ unknown Springer Marchi, S., Fichefet, T., Goosse, H., Zunz, V., Tietsche, S. <https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/view/creators/90004675.html>, Day, J. and Hawkins, E. <https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/view/creators/90000949.html> orcid:0000-0001-9477-3677 (2019) Reemergence of Antarctic sea ice predictability and its link to deep ocean mixing in global climate models. Climate Dynamics, 52 (5-6). pp. 2775-2797. ISSN 0930-7575 doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-4292-2 <https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-4292-2> Article PeerReviewed 2019 ftunivreading https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-4292-2 2024-06-25T15:02:19Z Satellite observations show a small overall increase in Antarctic sea ice extent (SIE) over the period 1979–2015. However, this upward trend needs to be balanced against recent pronounced SIE fluctuations occurring there. In the space of 3 years, the SIE sank from its highest value ever reached in September 2014 to record low in February 2017. In this work, a set of six state-of-the-art global climate models is used to evaluate the potential predictability of the Antarctic sea ice at such timescales. This first multi-model study of Antarctic sea ice predictability reveals that the ice edge location can potentially be predicted up to 3 years in advance. However, the ice edge location predictability shows contrasted seasonal performances, with high predictability in winter and no predictability in summer. The reemergence of the predictability from one winter to next is provided by the ocean through its large thermal inertia. Sea surface heat anomalies are stored at depth at the end of the winter and influences the sea ice advance the following year as they resurface. The effectiveness of this mechanism across models is found to depend upon the depth of the mixed layer. One should be very cautious about these potential predictability estimates as there is evidence that the Antarctic sea ice predictability is promoted by deep Southern Ocean convection. We therefore suspect models with excessive convection to show higher sea ice potential predictability results due to an incorrect representation of the Southern Ocean. Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic Sea ice Southern Ocean CentAUR: Central Archive at the University of Reading Climate Dynamics 52 5-6 2775 2797 |
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Open Polar |
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CentAUR: Central Archive at the University of Reading |
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ftunivreading |
language |
unknown |
description |
Satellite observations show a small overall increase in Antarctic sea ice extent (SIE) over the period 1979–2015. However, this upward trend needs to be balanced against recent pronounced SIE fluctuations occurring there. In the space of 3 years, the SIE sank from its highest value ever reached in September 2014 to record low in February 2017. In this work, a set of six state-of-the-art global climate models is used to evaluate the potential predictability of the Antarctic sea ice at such timescales. This first multi-model study of Antarctic sea ice predictability reveals that the ice edge location can potentially be predicted up to 3 years in advance. However, the ice edge location predictability shows contrasted seasonal performances, with high predictability in winter and no predictability in summer. The reemergence of the predictability from one winter to next is provided by the ocean through its large thermal inertia. Sea surface heat anomalies are stored at depth at the end of the winter and influences the sea ice advance the following year as they resurface. The effectiveness of this mechanism across models is found to depend upon the depth of the mixed layer. One should be very cautious about these potential predictability estimates as there is evidence that the Antarctic sea ice predictability is promoted by deep Southern Ocean convection. We therefore suspect models with excessive convection to show higher sea ice potential predictability results due to an incorrect representation of the Southern Ocean. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Marchi, Sylvain Fichefet, Thierry Goosse, Hugues Zunz, Violette Tietsche, Steffen Day, Jonathan Hawkins, Ed |
spellingShingle |
Marchi, Sylvain Fichefet, Thierry Goosse, Hugues Zunz, Violette Tietsche, Steffen Day, Jonathan Hawkins, Ed Reemergence of Antarctic sea ice predictability and its link to deep ocean mixing in global climate models |
author_facet |
Marchi, Sylvain Fichefet, Thierry Goosse, Hugues Zunz, Violette Tietsche, Steffen Day, Jonathan Hawkins, Ed |
author_sort |
Marchi, Sylvain |
title |
Reemergence of Antarctic sea ice predictability and its link to deep ocean mixing in global climate models |
title_short |
Reemergence of Antarctic sea ice predictability and its link to deep ocean mixing in global climate models |
title_full |
Reemergence of Antarctic sea ice predictability and its link to deep ocean mixing in global climate models |
title_fullStr |
Reemergence of Antarctic sea ice predictability and its link to deep ocean mixing in global climate models |
title_full_unstemmed |
Reemergence of Antarctic sea ice predictability and its link to deep ocean mixing in global climate models |
title_sort |
reemergence of antarctic sea ice predictability and its link to deep ocean mixing in global climate models |
publisher |
Springer |
publishDate |
2019 |
url |
https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/80787/ |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Sea ice Southern Ocean |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Sea ice Southern Ocean |
op_relation |
Marchi, S., Fichefet, T., Goosse, H., Zunz, V., Tietsche, S. <https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/view/creators/90004675.html>, Day, J. and Hawkins, E. <https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/view/creators/90000949.html> orcid:0000-0001-9477-3677 (2019) Reemergence of Antarctic sea ice predictability and its link to deep ocean mixing in global climate models. Climate Dynamics, 52 (5-6). pp. 2775-2797. ISSN 0930-7575 doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-4292-2 <https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-4292-2> |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-4292-2 |
container_title |
Climate Dynamics |
container_volume |
52 |
container_issue |
5-6 |
container_start_page |
2775 |
op_container_end_page |
2797 |
_version_ |
1810494518752968704 |