An intercomparison of skill and overconfidence/underconfidence of the wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation in multimodel seasonal forecasts
Recent studies of individual seasonal forecast systems have shown that the wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) can be skillfully forecast. However, it has also been suggested that these skillful forecasts tend to be underconfident, meaning that there is too high a proportion of unpredictable...
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American Geophysical Union
2018
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ftunivreading:oai:centaur.reading.ac.uk:78200 2024-06-23T07:54:58+00:00 An intercomparison of skill and overconfidence/underconfidence of the wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation in multimodel seasonal forecasts Baker, L. H. Shaffrey, L. C. Sutton, R. T. Weisheimer, A. Scaife, A. A. 2018-08-16 text https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/78200/ https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/78200/8/Baker_et_al-2018-Geophysical_Research_Letters.pdf https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/78200/1/grl_bakeretal_accepted_vn.pdf en eng American Geophysical Union https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/78200/8/Baker_et_al-2018-Geophysical_Research_Letters.pdf https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/78200/1/grl_bakeretal_accepted_vn.pdf Baker, L. H. <https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/view/creators/90004025.html> orcid:0000-0003-0738-9488 , Shaffrey, L. C. <https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/view/creators/90000111.html> orcid:0000-0003-2696-752X , Sutton, R. T. <https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/view/creators/90000057.html> orcid:0000-0001-8345-8583 , Weisheimer, A. and Scaife, A. A. (2018) An intercomparison of skill and overconfidence/underconfidence of the wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation in multimodel seasonal forecasts. Geophysical Research Letters, 45 (15). pp. 7808-7817. ISSN 0094-8276 doi: https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL078838 <https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL078838> Article PeerReviewed 2018 ftunivreading https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL078838 2024-06-11T15:08:23Z Recent studies of individual seasonal forecast systems have shown that the wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) can be skillfully forecast. However, it has also been suggested that these skillful forecasts tend to be underconfident, meaning that there is too high a proportion of unpredictable noise in the forecasts. We assess the skill and overconfidence/underconfidence of the seasonal forecast systems contributing to the EUROpean Seasonal to Interannual Prediction (EUROSIP) multimodel ensemble system. Five of the seven systems studied have significant skill for forecasting the wintertime NAO at 2‐ to 4‐month lead times. Four of these skillful systems are underconfident for forecasting the NAO. A multimodel ensemble (ensemble size 126 members) is both skillful and clearly underconfident. Underconfidence becomes more pronounced as the ensemble size increases. Certain years in the hindcast period are well forecast by all or most models. This implies that common teleconnections and drivers of the NAO are being captured by the EUROSIP seasonal forecasts. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation CentAUR: Central Archive at the University of Reading Geophysical Research Letters 45 15 7808 7817 |
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Open Polar |
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CentAUR: Central Archive at the University of Reading |
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ftunivreading |
language |
English |
description |
Recent studies of individual seasonal forecast systems have shown that the wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) can be skillfully forecast. However, it has also been suggested that these skillful forecasts tend to be underconfident, meaning that there is too high a proportion of unpredictable noise in the forecasts. We assess the skill and overconfidence/underconfidence of the seasonal forecast systems contributing to the EUROpean Seasonal to Interannual Prediction (EUROSIP) multimodel ensemble system. Five of the seven systems studied have significant skill for forecasting the wintertime NAO at 2‐ to 4‐month lead times. Four of these skillful systems are underconfident for forecasting the NAO. A multimodel ensemble (ensemble size 126 members) is both skillful and clearly underconfident. Underconfidence becomes more pronounced as the ensemble size increases. Certain years in the hindcast period are well forecast by all or most models. This implies that common teleconnections and drivers of the NAO are being captured by the EUROSIP seasonal forecasts. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Baker, L. H. Shaffrey, L. C. Sutton, R. T. Weisheimer, A. Scaife, A. A. |
spellingShingle |
Baker, L. H. Shaffrey, L. C. Sutton, R. T. Weisheimer, A. Scaife, A. A. An intercomparison of skill and overconfidence/underconfidence of the wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation in multimodel seasonal forecasts |
author_facet |
Baker, L. H. Shaffrey, L. C. Sutton, R. T. Weisheimer, A. Scaife, A. A. |
author_sort |
Baker, L. H. |
title |
An intercomparison of skill and overconfidence/underconfidence of the wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation in multimodel seasonal forecasts |
title_short |
An intercomparison of skill and overconfidence/underconfidence of the wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation in multimodel seasonal forecasts |
title_full |
An intercomparison of skill and overconfidence/underconfidence of the wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation in multimodel seasonal forecasts |
title_fullStr |
An intercomparison of skill and overconfidence/underconfidence of the wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation in multimodel seasonal forecasts |
title_full_unstemmed |
An intercomparison of skill and overconfidence/underconfidence of the wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation in multimodel seasonal forecasts |
title_sort |
intercomparison of skill and overconfidence/underconfidence of the wintertime north atlantic oscillation in multimodel seasonal forecasts |
publisher |
American Geophysical Union |
publishDate |
2018 |
url |
https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/78200/ https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/78200/8/Baker_et_al-2018-Geophysical_Research_Letters.pdf https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/78200/1/grl_bakeretal_accepted_vn.pdf |
genre |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
op_relation |
https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/78200/8/Baker_et_al-2018-Geophysical_Research_Letters.pdf https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/78200/1/grl_bakeretal_accepted_vn.pdf Baker, L. H. <https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/view/creators/90004025.html> orcid:0000-0003-0738-9488 , Shaffrey, L. C. <https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/view/creators/90000111.html> orcid:0000-0003-2696-752X , Sutton, R. T. <https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/view/creators/90000057.html> orcid:0000-0001-8345-8583 , Weisheimer, A. and Scaife, A. A. (2018) An intercomparison of skill and overconfidence/underconfidence of the wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation in multimodel seasonal forecasts. Geophysical Research Letters, 45 (15). pp. 7808-7817. ISSN 0094-8276 doi: https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL078838 <https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL078838> |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL078838 |
container_title |
Geophysical Research Letters |
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45 |
container_issue |
15 |
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7808 |
op_container_end_page |
7817 |
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1802647339571085312 |