Evaluation of the HadGEM3-A simulations in view of detection and attribution of human influence on extreme events in Europe
A detailed analysis is carried out to assess the HadGEM3-A global atmospheric model skill in simulating extreme temperatures, precipitation and storm surges in Europe in the view of their attribution to human influence. The analysis is performed based on an ensemble of 15 atmospheric simulations for...
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Online Access: | https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/76175/ https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/76175/1/76175.pdf |
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ftunivreading:oai:centaur.reading.ac.uk:76175 2024-06-23T07:55:17+00:00 Evaluation of the HadGEM3-A simulations in view of detection and attribution of human influence on extreme events in Europe Vautard, Robert Christidis, Nikolaos Ciavarella, Andrew Alvarez-Castro, Carmen Bellprat, Omar Christiansen, Bo Colfescu, Ioana Cowan, Tim Doblas-Reyes, Francisco Eden, Jonathan Hauser, Mathias Hegerl, Gabriele Hempelmann, Nils Klehmet, Katharina Lott, Fraser Nangini, Cathy Orth, Rene Radanovics, Sabine Seneviratne, Sonia I. van Oldenborgh, Geert Jan Stott, Peter Tett, Simon Wilcox, Laura Yiou, Pascal 2019-01 text https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/76175/ https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/76175/1/76175.pdf en eng Springer https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/76175/1/76175.pdf Vautard, R., Christidis, N., Ciavarella, A., Alvarez-Castro, C., Bellprat, O., Christiansen, B., Colfescu, I., Cowan, T., Doblas-Reyes, F., Eden, J., Hauser, M., Hegerl, G., Hempelmann, N., Klehmet, K., Lott, F., Nangini, C., Orth, R., Radanovics, S., Seneviratne, S. I., van Oldenborgh, G. J., Stott, P., Tett, S., Wilcox, L. <https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/view/creators/90004004.html> orcid:0000-0001-5691-1493 and Yiou, P. (2019) Evaluation of the HadGEM3-A simulations in view of detection and attribution of human influence on extreme events in Europe. Climate Dynamics, 52 (1-2). pp. 1187-1210. ISSN 0930-7575 doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-4183-6 <https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-4183-6> Article PeerReviewed 2019 ftunivreading https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-4183-6 2024-06-11T15:07:33Z A detailed analysis is carried out to assess the HadGEM3-A global atmospheric model skill in simulating extreme temperatures, precipitation and storm surges in Europe in the view of their attribution to human influence. The analysis is performed based on an ensemble of 15 atmospheric simulations forced with observed Sea Surface Temperature of the 54 year period 1960-2013. These simulations, together with dual simulations without human influence in the forcing, are intended to be used in weather and climate event attribution. The analysis investigates the main processes leading to extreme events, including atmospheric circulation patterns, their links with temperature extremes, land-atmosphere and troposphere-stratosphere interactions. It also compares observed and simulated variability, trends and generalized extreme value theory parameters for temperature and precipitation. One of the most striking findings is the ability of the model to capture North Atlantic atmospheric weather regimes as obtained from a cluster analysis of sea level pressure fields. The model also reproduces the main observed weather patterns responsible for temperature and precipitation extreme events. However, biases are found in many physical processes. Slightly excessive drying may be the cause of an overestimated summer interannual variability and too intense heat waves, especially in central/northern Europe. However, this does not seem to hinder proper simulation of summer temperature trends. Cold extremes appear well simulated, as well as the underlying blocking frequency and stratosphere-troposphere interactions. Extreme precipitation amounts are overestimated and too variable. The atmospheric conditions leading to storm surges were also examined in the Baltics region. There, simulated weather conditions appear not to be leading to strong enough storm surges, but winds were found in very good agreement with reanalyses. The performance in reproducing atmospheric weather patterns indicates that biases mainly originate from local and ... Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic CentAUR: Central Archive at the University of Reading Climate Dynamics 52 1-2 1187 1210 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
CentAUR: Central Archive at the University of Reading |
op_collection_id |
ftunivreading |
language |
English |
description |
A detailed analysis is carried out to assess the HadGEM3-A global atmospheric model skill in simulating extreme temperatures, precipitation and storm surges in Europe in the view of their attribution to human influence. The analysis is performed based on an ensemble of 15 atmospheric simulations forced with observed Sea Surface Temperature of the 54 year period 1960-2013. These simulations, together with dual simulations without human influence in the forcing, are intended to be used in weather and climate event attribution. The analysis investigates the main processes leading to extreme events, including atmospheric circulation patterns, their links with temperature extremes, land-atmosphere and troposphere-stratosphere interactions. It also compares observed and simulated variability, trends and generalized extreme value theory parameters for temperature and precipitation. One of the most striking findings is the ability of the model to capture North Atlantic atmospheric weather regimes as obtained from a cluster analysis of sea level pressure fields. The model also reproduces the main observed weather patterns responsible for temperature and precipitation extreme events. However, biases are found in many physical processes. Slightly excessive drying may be the cause of an overestimated summer interannual variability and too intense heat waves, especially in central/northern Europe. However, this does not seem to hinder proper simulation of summer temperature trends. Cold extremes appear well simulated, as well as the underlying blocking frequency and stratosphere-troposphere interactions. Extreme precipitation amounts are overestimated and too variable. The atmospheric conditions leading to storm surges were also examined in the Baltics region. There, simulated weather conditions appear not to be leading to strong enough storm surges, but winds were found in very good agreement with reanalyses. The performance in reproducing atmospheric weather patterns indicates that biases mainly originate from local and ... |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Vautard, Robert Christidis, Nikolaos Ciavarella, Andrew Alvarez-Castro, Carmen Bellprat, Omar Christiansen, Bo Colfescu, Ioana Cowan, Tim Doblas-Reyes, Francisco Eden, Jonathan Hauser, Mathias Hegerl, Gabriele Hempelmann, Nils Klehmet, Katharina Lott, Fraser Nangini, Cathy Orth, Rene Radanovics, Sabine Seneviratne, Sonia I. van Oldenborgh, Geert Jan Stott, Peter Tett, Simon Wilcox, Laura Yiou, Pascal |
spellingShingle |
Vautard, Robert Christidis, Nikolaos Ciavarella, Andrew Alvarez-Castro, Carmen Bellprat, Omar Christiansen, Bo Colfescu, Ioana Cowan, Tim Doblas-Reyes, Francisco Eden, Jonathan Hauser, Mathias Hegerl, Gabriele Hempelmann, Nils Klehmet, Katharina Lott, Fraser Nangini, Cathy Orth, Rene Radanovics, Sabine Seneviratne, Sonia I. van Oldenborgh, Geert Jan Stott, Peter Tett, Simon Wilcox, Laura Yiou, Pascal Evaluation of the HadGEM3-A simulations in view of detection and attribution of human influence on extreme events in Europe |
author_facet |
Vautard, Robert Christidis, Nikolaos Ciavarella, Andrew Alvarez-Castro, Carmen Bellprat, Omar Christiansen, Bo Colfescu, Ioana Cowan, Tim Doblas-Reyes, Francisco Eden, Jonathan Hauser, Mathias Hegerl, Gabriele Hempelmann, Nils Klehmet, Katharina Lott, Fraser Nangini, Cathy Orth, Rene Radanovics, Sabine Seneviratne, Sonia I. van Oldenborgh, Geert Jan Stott, Peter Tett, Simon Wilcox, Laura Yiou, Pascal |
author_sort |
Vautard, Robert |
title |
Evaluation of the HadGEM3-A simulations in view of detection and attribution of human influence on extreme events in Europe |
title_short |
Evaluation of the HadGEM3-A simulations in view of detection and attribution of human influence on extreme events in Europe |
title_full |
Evaluation of the HadGEM3-A simulations in view of detection and attribution of human influence on extreme events in Europe |
title_fullStr |
Evaluation of the HadGEM3-A simulations in view of detection and attribution of human influence on extreme events in Europe |
title_full_unstemmed |
Evaluation of the HadGEM3-A simulations in view of detection and attribution of human influence on extreme events in Europe |
title_sort |
evaluation of the hadgem3-a simulations in view of detection and attribution of human influence on extreme events in europe |
publisher |
Springer |
publishDate |
2019 |
url |
https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/76175/ https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/76175/1/76175.pdf |
genre |
North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic |
op_relation |
https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/76175/1/76175.pdf Vautard, R., Christidis, N., Ciavarella, A., Alvarez-Castro, C., Bellprat, O., Christiansen, B., Colfescu, I., Cowan, T., Doblas-Reyes, F., Eden, J., Hauser, M., Hegerl, G., Hempelmann, N., Klehmet, K., Lott, F., Nangini, C., Orth, R., Radanovics, S., Seneviratne, S. I., van Oldenborgh, G. J., Stott, P., Tett, S., Wilcox, L. <https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/view/creators/90004004.html> orcid:0000-0001-5691-1493 and Yiou, P. (2019) Evaluation of the HadGEM3-A simulations in view of detection and attribution of human influence on extreme events in Europe. Climate Dynamics, 52 (1-2). pp. 1187-1210. ISSN 0930-7575 doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-4183-6 <https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-4183-6> |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-4183-6 |
container_title |
Climate Dynamics |
container_volume |
52 |
container_issue |
1-2 |
container_start_page |
1187 |
op_container_end_page |
1210 |
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1802647813402656768 |