Contributions of greenhouse gas forcing and the Southern Annular Mode to historical Southern Ocean surface temperature trends
We examine the 1979-2014 Southern Ocean (SO) sea surface temperature (SST) trends simulated in an ensemble of coupled general circulation models and evaluate possible causes of the models’ inability to reproduce the observed 1979-2014 SO cooling. For each model we estimate the response of SO SST to...
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American Geophysical Union
2018
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ftunivreading:oai:centaur.reading.ac.uk:74921 2024-05-19T07:30:30+00:00 Contributions of greenhouse gas forcing and the Southern Annular Mode to historical Southern Ocean surface temperature trends Kostov, Yavor Ferreira, David Marshall, John Armour, Kyle 2018-01-28 text https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/74921/ https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/74921/7/Kostov_et_al-2018-Geophysical_Research_Letters.pdf https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/74921/1/Kostov_etal_17_revised.pdf en eng American Geophysical Union https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/74921/7/Kostov_et_al-2018-Geophysical_Research_Letters.pdf https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/74921/1/Kostov_etal_17_revised.pdf Kostov, Y., Ferreira, D. <https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/view/creators/90005370.html> orcid:0000-0003-3243-9774 , Marshall, J. and Armour, K. (2018) Contributions of greenhouse gas forcing and the Southern Annular Mode to historical Southern Ocean surface temperature trends. Geophysical Research Letters, 45 (2). pp. 1086-1097. ISSN 0094-8276 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL074964 <https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL074964> Article PeerReviewed 2018 ftunivreading https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL074964 2024-05-01T00:13:34Z We examine the 1979-2014 Southern Ocean (SO) sea surface temperature (SST) trends simulated in an ensemble of coupled general circulation models and evaluate possible causes of the models’ inability to reproduce the observed 1979-2014 SO cooling. For each model we estimate the response of SO SST to step changes in greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing and in the seasonal indices of the Southern Annular Mode (SAM). Using these step-response functions, we skillfully reconstruct the models’ 1979-2014 SO SST trends. Consistent with the seasonal signature of the Antarctic ozone hole and the seasonality of SO stratification, the summer and fall SAM exert a large impact on the simulated SO SST trends. We further identify conditions that favor multidecadal SO cooling: 1) a weak SO warming response to GHG forcing; 2) a strong multidecadal SO cooling response to a positive SAM trend; 3) a historical SAM trend as strong as in observations. Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic Southern Ocean CentAUR: Central Archive at the University of Reading Geophysical Research Letters 45 2 1086 1097 |
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Open Polar |
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CentAUR: Central Archive at the University of Reading |
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ftunivreading |
language |
English |
description |
We examine the 1979-2014 Southern Ocean (SO) sea surface temperature (SST) trends simulated in an ensemble of coupled general circulation models and evaluate possible causes of the models’ inability to reproduce the observed 1979-2014 SO cooling. For each model we estimate the response of SO SST to step changes in greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing and in the seasonal indices of the Southern Annular Mode (SAM). Using these step-response functions, we skillfully reconstruct the models’ 1979-2014 SO SST trends. Consistent with the seasonal signature of the Antarctic ozone hole and the seasonality of SO stratification, the summer and fall SAM exert a large impact on the simulated SO SST trends. We further identify conditions that favor multidecadal SO cooling: 1) a weak SO warming response to GHG forcing; 2) a strong multidecadal SO cooling response to a positive SAM trend; 3) a historical SAM trend as strong as in observations. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Kostov, Yavor Ferreira, David Marshall, John Armour, Kyle |
spellingShingle |
Kostov, Yavor Ferreira, David Marshall, John Armour, Kyle Contributions of greenhouse gas forcing and the Southern Annular Mode to historical Southern Ocean surface temperature trends |
author_facet |
Kostov, Yavor Ferreira, David Marshall, John Armour, Kyle |
author_sort |
Kostov, Yavor |
title |
Contributions of greenhouse gas forcing and the Southern Annular Mode to historical Southern Ocean surface temperature trends |
title_short |
Contributions of greenhouse gas forcing and the Southern Annular Mode to historical Southern Ocean surface temperature trends |
title_full |
Contributions of greenhouse gas forcing and the Southern Annular Mode to historical Southern Ocean surface temperature trends |
title_fullStr |
Contributions of greenhouse gas forcing and the Southern Annular Mode to historical Southern Ocean surface temperature trends |
title_full_unstemmed |
Contributions of greenhouse gas forcing and the Southern Annular Mode to historical Southern Ocean surface temperature trends |
title_sort |
contributions of greenhouse gas forcing and the southern annular mode to historical southern ocean surface temperature trends |
publisher |
American Geophysical Union |
publishDate |
2018 |
url |
https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/74921/ https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/74921/7/Kostov_et_al-2018-Geophysical_Research_Letters.pdf https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/74921/1/Kostov_etal_17_revised.pdf |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Southern Ocean |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Southern Ocean |
op_relation |
https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/74921/7/Kostov_et_al-2018-Geophysical_Research_Letters.pdf https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/74921/1/Kostov_etal_17_revised.pdf Kostov, Y., Ferreira, D. <https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/view/creators/90005370.html> orcid:0000-0003-3243-9774 , Marshall, J. and Armour, K. (2018) Contributions of greenhouse gas forcing and the Southern Annular Mode to historical Southern Ocean surface temperature trends. Geophysical Research Letters, 45 (2). pp. 1086-1097. ISSN 0094-8276 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL074964 <https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL074964> |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL074964 |
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Geophysical Research Letters |
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45 |
container_issue |
2 |
container_start_page |
1086 |
op_container_end_page |
1097 |
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1799486927214215168 |