Seasonal differences in the response of Arctic cyclones to climate change in CESM1
The dramatic warming of the Arctic over the last three decades has reduced both the thickness and extent of sea ice, opening opportunities for business in diverse sectors and increasing human exposure to meteorological hazards in the Arctic. It has been suggested that these changes in environmental...
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ftunivreading:oai:centaur.reading.ac.uk:70883 2024-05-19T07:33:20+00:00 Seasonal differences in the response of Arctic cyclones to climate change in CESM1 Day, Jonathan J. Holland, Marika M. Hodges, Kevin I. 2018-05 text https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/70883/ https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/70883/1/10.1007_s00382-017-3767-x.pdf https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-017-3767-x en eng Springer https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/70883/1/10.1007_s00382-017-3767-x.pdf Day, J. J. <https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/view/creators/90004387.html>, Holland, M. M. and Hodges, K. I. <https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/view/creators/90000463.html> (2018) Seasonal differences in the response of Arctic cyclones to climate change in CESM1. Climate Dynamics, 50 (9-10). pp. 3885-3903. ISSN 0930-7575 doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-017-3767-x <https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-017-3767-x> cc_by_4 Article PeerReviewed 2018 ftunivreading https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-017-3767-x 2024-05-01T00:09:48Z The dramatic warming of the Arctic over the last three decades has reduced both the thickness and extent of sea ice, opening opportunities for business in diverse sectors and increasing human exposure to meteorological hazards in the Arctic. It has been suggested that these changes in environmental conditions have led to an increase in extreme cyclones in the region, therefore increasing this hazard. In this study, we investigate the response of Arctic synoptic scale cyclones to climate change in a large initial value ensemble of future climate projections with the CESM1-CAM5 climate model (CESM-LE). We find that the response of Arctic cyclones in these simulations varies with season, with significant reductions in cyclone dynamic intensity across the Arctic basin in winter, but with contrasting increases in summer intensity within the region known as the Arctic Ocean cyclone maximum. There is also a significant reduction in winter cyclogenesis events within the Greenland–Iceland–Norwegian sea region. We conclude that these differences in the response of cyclone intensity and cyclogenesis, with season, appear to be closely linked to changes in surface temperature gradients in the high latitudes, with Arctic poleward temperature gradients increasing in summer, but decreasing in winter. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Arctic Basin Arctic Arctic Ocean Climate change Greenland Iceland Norwegian Sea Sea ice CentAUR: Central Archive at the University of Reading Climate Dynamics 50 9-10 3885 3903 |
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Open Polar |
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CentAUR: Central Archive at the University of Reading |
op_collection_id |
ftunivreading |
language |
English |
description |
The dramatic warming of the Arctic over the last three decades has reduced both the thickness and extent of sea ice, opening opportunities for business in diverse sectors and increasing human exposure to meteorological hazards in the Arctic. It has been suggested that these changes in environmental conditions have led to an increase in extreme cyclones in the region, therefore increasing this hazard. In this study, we investigate the response of Arctic synoptic scale cyclones to climate change in a large initial value ensemble of future climate projections with the CESM1-CAM5 climate model (CESM-LE). We find that the response of Arctic cyclones in these simulations varies with season, with significant reductions in cyclone dynamic intensity across the Arctic basin in winter, but with contrasting increases in summer intensity within the region known as the Arctic Ocean cyclone maximum. There is also a significant reduction in winter cyclogenesis events within the Greenland–Iceland–Norwegian sea region. We conclude that these differences in the response of cyclone intensity and cyclogenesis, with season, appear to be closely linked to changes in surface temperature gradients in the high latitudes, with Arctic poleward temperature gradients increasing in summer, but decreasing in winter. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Day, Jonathan J. Holland, Marika M. Hodges, Kevin I. |
spellingShingle |
Day, Jonathan J. Holland, Marika M. Hodges, Kevin I. Seasonal differences in the response of Arctic cyclones to climate change in CESM1 |
author_facet |
Day, Jonathan J. Holland, Marika M. Hodges, Kevin I. |
author_sort |
Day, Jonathan J. |
title |
Seasonal differences in the response of Arctic cyclones to climate change in CESM1 |
title_short |
Seasonal differences in the response of Arctic cyclones to climate change in CESM1 |
title_full |
Seasonal differences in the response of Arctic cyclones to climate change in CESM1 |
title_fullStr |
Seasonal differences in the response of Arctic cyclones to climate change in CESM1 |
title_full_unstemmed |
Seasonal differences in the response of Arctic cyclones to climate change in CESM1 |
title_sort |
seasonal differences in the response of arctic cyclones to climate change in cesm1 |
publisher |
Springer |
publishDate |
2018 |
url |
https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/70883/ https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/70883/1/10.1007_s00382-017-3767-x.pdf https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-017-3767-x |
genre |
Arctic Arctic Basin Arctic Arctic Ocean Climate change Greenland Iceland Norwegian Sea Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Arctic Arctic Basin Arctic Arctic Ocean Climate change Greenland Iceland Norwegian Sea Sea ice |
op_relation |
https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/70883/1/10.1007_s00382-017-3767-x.pdf Day, J. J. <https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/view/creators/90004387.html>, Holland, M. M. and Hodges, K. I. <https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/view/creators/90000463.html> (2018) Seasonal differences in the response of Arctic cyclones to climate change in CESM1. Climate Dynamics, 50 (9-10). pp. 3885-3903. ISSN 0930-7575 doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-017-3767-x <https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-017-3767-x> |
op_rights |
cc_by_4 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-017-3767-x |
container_title |
Climate Dynamics |
container_volume |
50 |
container_issue |
9-10 |
container_start_page |
3885 |
op_container_end_page |
3903 |
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1799471400761688064 |