Decadal prediction of the North Atlantic subpolar gyre in the HiGEM high-resolution climate model
This paper presents an analysis of initialised decadal hindcasts of the North Atlantic subpolar gyre (SPG) using the HiGEM model, which has a nominal grid-spacing of 90 km in the atmosphere, and 1/3 ∘∘ in the ocean. HiGEM decadal predictions (HiGEM-DP) exhibit significant skill at capturing 0–500 m...
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ftunivreading:oai:centaur.reading.ac.uk:70102 2024-06-23T07:54:54+00:00 Decadal prediction of the North Atlantic subpolar gyre in the HiGEM high-resolution climate model Robson, Jon Polo, Irene Hodson, Dan L. R. Stevens, D. P. Shaffrey, Len C. 2018-02 text https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/70102/ https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/70102/8/10.1007%252Fs00382-017-3649-2.pdf https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/70102/1/higem_natl_clidyn_v2.1.pdf en eng Springer https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/70102/8/10.1007%252Fs00382-017-3649-2.pdf https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/70102/1/higem_natl_clidyn_v2.1.pdf Robson, J. <https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/view/creators/90002607.html> orcid:0000-0002-3467-018X , Polo, I. <https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/view/creators/90004825.html>, Hodson, D. L. R. <https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/view/creators/90000306.html> orcid:0000-0001-7159-6700 , Stevens, D. P. and Shaffrey, L. C. <https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/view/creators/90000111.html> orcid:0000-0003-2696-752X (2018) Decadal prediction of the North Atlantic subpolar gyre in the HiGEM high-resolution climate model. Climate Dynamics, 50 (3-4). pp. 921-937. ISSN 0930-7575 doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-017-3649-2 <https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-017-3649-2> cc_by_4 Article PeerReviewed 2018 ftunivreading https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-017-3649-2 2024-06-11T15:06:49Z This paper presents an analysis of initialised decadal hindcasts of the North Atlantic subpolar gyre (SPG) using the HiGEM model, which has a nominal grid-spacing of 90 km in the atmosphere, and 1/3 ∘∘ in the ocean. HiGEM decadal predictions (HiGEM-DP) exhibit significant skill at capturing 0–500 m ocean heat content in the SPG, and outperform historically forced transient integrations and persistence for up to a decade ahead. An analysis of case-studies of North Atlantic decadal change, including the 1960s cooling, the mid-1990s warming, and the post-2005 cooling, show that changes in ocean circulation and heat transport dominate the predictions of the SPG. However, different processes are found to dominate heat content changes in different regions of the SPG. Specifically, ocean advection dominates in the east, but surface fluxes dominate in the west. Furthermore, compared to previous studies, we find a smaller role for ocean heat transport changes due to ocean circulation anomalies at the latitudes of the SPG, and, for the 1960s cooling, a greater role for surface fluxes. Finally, HiGEM-DP predicts the observed positive state of the North Atlantic Oscillation in the early 1990s. These results support an important role for the ocean in driving past changes in the North Atlantic region, and suggest that these changes were predictable. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation CentAUR: Central Archive at the University of Reading Climate Dynamics 50 3-4 921 937 |
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Open Polar |
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CentAUR: Central Archive at the University of Reading |
op_collection_id |
ftunivreading |
language |
English |
description |
This paper presents an analysis of initialised decadal hindcasts of the North Atlantic subpolar gyre (SPG) using the HiGEM model, which has a nominal grid-spacing of 90 km in the atmosphere, and 1/3 ∘∘ in the ocean. HiGEM decadal predictions (HiGEM-DP) exhibit significant skill at capturing 0–500 m ocean heat content in the SPG, and outperform historically forced transient integrations and persistence for up to a decade ahead. An analysis of case-studies of North Atlantic decadal change, including the 1960s cooling, the mid-1990s warming, and the post-2005 cooling, show that changes in ocean circulation and heat transport dominate the predictions of the SPG. However, different processes are found to dominate heat content changes in different regions of the SPG. Specifically, ocean advection dominates in the east, but surface fluxes dominate in the west. Furthermore, compared to previous studies, we find a smaller role for ocean heat transport changes due to ocean circulation anomalies at the latitudes of the SPG, and, for the 1960s cooling, a greater role for surface fluxes. Finally, HiGEM-DP predicts the observed positive state of the North Atlantic Oscillation in the early 1990s. These results support an important role for the ocean in driving past changes in the North Atlantic region, and suggest that these changes were predictable. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Robson, Jon Polo, Irene Hodson, Dan L. R. Stevens, D. P. Shaffrey, Len C. |
spellingShingle |
Robson, Jon Polo, Irene Hodson, Dan L. R. Stevens, D. P. Shaffrey, Len C. Decadal prediction of the North Atlantic subpolar gyre in the HiGEM high-resolution climate model |
author_facet |
Robson, Jon Polo, Irene Hodson, Dan L. R. Stevens, D. P. Shaffrey, Len C. |
author_sort |
Robson, Jon |
title |
Decadal prediction of the North Atlantic subpolar gyre in the HiGEM high-resolution climate model |
title_short |
Decadal prediction of the North Atlantic subpolar gyre in the HiGEM high-resolution climate model |
title_full |
Decadal prediction of the North Atlantic subpolar gyre in the HiGEM high-resolution climate model |
title_fullStr |
Decadal prediction of the North Atlantic subpolar gyre in the HiGEM high-resolution climate model |
title_full_unstemmed |
Decadal prediction of the North Atlantic subpolar gyre in the HiGEM high-resolution climate model |
title_sort |
decadal prediction of the north atlantic subpolar gyre in the higem high-resolution climate model |
publisher |
Springer |
publishDate |
2018 |
url |
https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/70102/ https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/70102/8/10.1007%252Fs00382-017-3649-2.pdf https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/70102/1/higem_natl_clidyn_v2.1.pdf |
genre |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
op_relation |
https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/70102/8/10.1007%252Fs00382-017-3649-2.pdf https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/70102/1/higem_natl_clidyn_v2.1.pdf Robson, J. <https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/view/creators/90002607.html> orcid:0000-0002-3467-018X , Polo, I. <https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/view/creators/90004825.html>, Hodson, D. L. R. <https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/view/creators/90000306.html> orcid:0000-0001-7159-6700 , Stevens, D. P. and Shaffrey, L. C. <https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/view/creators/90000111.html> orcid:0000-0003-2696-752X (2018) Decadal prediction of the North Atlantic subpolar gyre in the HiGEM high-resolution climate model. Climate Dynamics, 50 (3-4). pp. 921-937. ISSN 0930-7575 doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-017-3649-2 <https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-017-3649-2> |
op_rights |
cc_by_4 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-017-3649-2 |
container_title |
Climate Dynamics |
container_volume |
50 |
container_issue |
3-4 |
container_start_page |
921 |
op_container_end_page |
937 |
_version_ |
1802647236557930496 |