Sea ice decline and 21st century trans-Arctic shipping routes
The observed decline in Arctic sea ice is projected to continue, opening shorter trade routes across the Arctic Ocean, with potentially global economic implications. Here we quantify, using CMIP5 global climate model simulations calibrated to remove spatial biases, how projected sea ice loss might i...
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Language: | English |
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American Geophysical Union
2016
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Online Access: | https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/66509/ https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/66509/7/Melia_et_al-2016-Geophysical_Research_Letters.pdf https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/66509/1/melia-shipping-final.pdf |
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ftunivreading:oai:centaur.reading.ac.uk:66509 2024-06-23T07:48:42+00:00 Sea ice decline and 21st century trans-Arctic shipping routes Melia, Nat Haines, Keith Hawkins, Ed 2016-09-28 text https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/66509/ https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/66509/7/Melia_et_al-2016-Geophysical_Research_Letters.pdf https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/66509/1/melia-shipping-final.pdf en eng American Geophysical Union https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/66509/7/Melia_et_al-2016-Geophysical_Research_Letters.pdf https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/66509/1/melia-shipping-final.pdf Melia, N. <https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/view/creators/90007425.html>, Haines, K. <https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/view/creators/90000002.html> orcid:0000-0003-2768-2374 and Hawkins, E. <https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/view/creators/90000949.html> orcid:0000-0001-9477-3677 (2016) Sea ice decline and 21st century trans-Arctic shipping routes. Geophysical Research Letters, 43 (18). pp. 9720-9728. ISSN 1944-8007 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL069315 <https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL069315> cc_by_4 Article PeerReviewed 2016 ftunivreading https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL069315 2024-06-11T15:05:53Z The observed decline in Arctic sea ice is projected to continue, opening shorter trade routes across the Arctic Ocean, with potentially global economic implications. Here we quantify, using CMIP5 global climate model simulations calibrated to remove spatial biases, how projected sea ice loss might increase opportunities for Arctic-transit shipping. By mid-century for standard Open Water vessels, the frequency of navigable periods doubles, with routes across the central Arctic becoming available. A sea ice – ship speed relationship is used to show that European routes to Asia typically become 10 days faster via the Arctic than alternatives by mid-century, and 13 days faster by late-century, while North American routes become 4 days faster. Future greenhouse-gas emissions have a larger impact by late-century; the shipping season reaching 4-8 months in RCP8.5, double that of RCP2.6, both with substantial inter-annual variability. Moderately ice-strengthened vessels likely enable Arctic transits for 10-12 months by late century. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Arctic Arctic Ocean Sea ice CentAUR: Central Archive at the University of Reading Arctic Arctic Ocean Geophysical Research Letters 43 18 9720 9728 |
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Open Polar |
collection |
CentAUR: Central Archive at the University of Reading |
op_collection_id |
ftunivreading |
language |
English |
description |
The observed decline in Arctic sea ice is projected to continue, opening shorter trade routes across the Arctic Ocean, with potentially global economic implications. Here we quantify, using CMIP5 global climate model simulations calibrated to remove spatial biases, how projected sea ice loss might increase opportunities for Arctic-transit shipping. By mid-century for standard Open Water vessels, the frequency of navigable periods doubles, with routes across the central Arctic becoming available. A sea ice – ship speed relationship is used to show that European routes to Asia typically become 10 days faster via the Arctic than alternatives by mid-century, and 13 days faster by late-century, while North American routes become 4 days faster. Future greenhouse-gas emissions have a larger impact by late-century; the shipping season reaching 4-8 months in RCP8.5, double that of RCP2.6, both with substantial inter-annual variability. Moderately ice-strengthened vessels likely enable Arctic transits for 10-12 months by late century. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Melia, Nat Haines, Keith Hawkins, Ed |
spellingShingle |
Melia, Nat Haines, Keith Hawkins, Ed Sea ice decline and 21st century trans-Arctic shipping routes |
author_facet |
Melia, Nat Haines, Keith Hawkins, Ed |
author_sort |
Melia, Nat |
title |
Sea ice decline and 21st century trans-Arctic shipping routes |
title_short |
Sea ice decline and 21st century trans-Arctic shipping routes |
title_full |
Sea ice decline and 21st century trans-Arctic shipping routes |
title_fullStr |
Sea ice decline and 21st century trans-Arctic shipping routes |
title_full_unstemmed |
Sea ice decline and 21st century trans-Arctic shipping routes |
title_sort |
sea ice decline and 21st century trans-arctic shipping routes |
publisher |
American Geophysical Union |
publishDate |
2016 |
url |
https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/66509/ https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/66509/7/Melia_et_al-2016-Geophysical_Research_Letters.pdf https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/66509/1/melia-shipping-final.pdf |
geographic |
Arctic Arctic Ocean |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Arctic Ocean |
genre |
Arctic Arctic Arctic Ocean Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Arctic Arctic Arctic Ocean Sea ice |
op_relation |
https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/66509/7/Melia_et_al-2016-Geophysical_Research_Letters.pdf https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/66509/1/melia-shipping-final.pdf Melia, N. <https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/view/creators/90007425.html>, Haines, K. <https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/view/creators/90000002.html> orcid:0000-0003-2768-2374 and Hawkins, E. <https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/view/creators/90000949.html> orcid:0000-0001-9477-3677 (2016) Sea ice decline and 21st century trans-Arctic shipping routes. Geophysical Research Letters, 43 (18). pp. 9720-9728. ISSN 1944-8007 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL069315 <https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL069315> |
op_rights |
cc_by_4 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL069315 |
container_title |
Geophysical Research Letters |
container_volume |
43 |
container_issue |
18 |
container_start_page |
9720 |
op_container_end_page |
9728 |
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1802639034938294272 |