On predicting the opening of Arctic sea routes
Satellite observations have revealed that the Arctic is undergoing rapid climate change. Climate model projections unanimously simulate that year-round reductions in Arctic sea ice will continue through the 21st century. The primary goal of this thesis is to investigate the implications of these cha...
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ftunivreading:oai:centaur.reading.ac.uk:66414 2023-09-05T13:15:38+02:00 On predicting the opening of Arctic sea routes Melia, Nat 2016 text https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/66414/ https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/66414/1/14011930_Melia_thesis.pdf https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/66414/2/14011930_Melia_form.pdf en eng https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/66414/1/14011930_Melia_thesis.pdf https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/66414/2/14011930_Melia_form.pdf Melia, Nat (2016) On predicting the opening of Arctic sea routes. PhD thesis, University of Reading. Thesis NonPeerReviewed 2016 ftunivreading 2023-08-14T18:01:42Z Satellite observations have revealed that the Arctic is undergoing rapid climate change. Climate model projections unanimously simulate that year-round reductions in Arctic sea ice will continue through the 21st century. The primary goal of this thesis is to investigate the implications of these changes for trans-Arctic shipping. Arctic routes offer a substantial distance saving over conventional routes, with potentially significant global economic implications. Shipping in Arctic waters is a hazardous endeavour and increases in shipping traffic heighten the need for robust projections of future shipping accessibility to assess the risks involved. However, all global climate model (GCM) simulations contain intrinsic biases in their simulation of sea ice. This thesis has produced a calibration technique to constrain and reduce these biases. Applying this approach to a suite of state of the art GCMs reveals that the Arctic may become “ice-free” in the 2050s, a decade earlier than without the calibration technique. Projections of Arctic shipping are also made using data from these calibrated climate models, likely adding to their robustness. Using the calibrated multimodel ensemble reveals that, by mid-century, Arctic transit potential doubles for standard ‘open water’ vessels; most years become navigable for some period, irrespective of future emissions scenario, with the currently inaccessible Trans-polar Sea Route across the central Arctic becoming accessible for the first time. European routes to East Asia become 10 days faster on average than alternatives by mid-century, and 13 days faster by late-century, while North American routes become 4 days faster. Future greenhouse-gas emissions play a significant role by late-century; the shipping season reaching 8 months in RCP8.5, double that of RCP2.6 which exhibits substantial interannual variability. Moderately ice-strengthened vessels would enable fast and reliable trans-Arctic shipping, essentially year round, from mid-century. Climate model projections reveal ... Thesis Arctic Arctic Climate change Sea ice CentAUR: Central Archive at the University of Reading Arctic Endeavour ENVELOPE(162.000,162.000,-76.550,-76.550) |
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CentAUR: Central Archive at the University of Reading |
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ftunivreading |
language |
English |
description |
Satellite observations have revealed that the Arctic is undergoing rapid climate change. Climate model projections unanimously simulate that year-round reductions in Arctic sea ice will continue through the 21st century. The primary goal of this thesis is to investigate the implications of these changes for trans-Arctic shipping. Arctic routes offer a substantial distance saving over conventional routes, with potentially significant global economic implications. Shipping in Arctic waters is a hazardous endeavour and increases in shipping traffic heighten the need for robust projections of future shipping accessibility to assess the risks involved. However, all global climate model (GCM) simulations contain intrinsic biases in their simulation of sea ice. This thesis has produced a calibration technique to constrain and reduce these biases. Applying this approach to a suite of state of the art GCMs reveals that the Arctic may become “ice-free” in the 2050s, a decade earlier than without the calibration technique. Projections of Arctic shipping are also made using data from these calibrated climate models, likely adding to their robustness. Using the calibrated multimodel ensemble reveals that, by mid-century, Arctic transit potential doubles for standard ‘open water’ vessels; most years become navigable for some period, irrespective of future emissions scenario, with the currently inaccessible Trans-polar Sea Route across the central Arctic becoming accessible for the first time. European routes to East Asia become 10 days faster on average than alternatives by mid-century, and 13 days faster by late-century, while North American routes become 4 days faster. Future greenhouse-gas emissions play a significant role by late-century; the shipping season reaching 8 months in RCP8.5, double that of RCP2.6 which exhibits substantial interannual variability. Moderately ice-strengthened vessels would enable fast and reliable trans-Arctic shipping, essentially year round, from mid-century. Climate model projections reveal ... |
format |
Thesis |
author |
Melia, Nat |
spellingShingle |
Melia, Nat On predicting the opening of Arctic sea routes |
author_facet |
Melia, Nat |
author_sort |
Melia, Nat |
title |
On predicting the opening of Arctic sea routes |
title_short |
On predicting the opening of Arctic sea routes |
title_full |
On predicting the opening of Arctic sea routes |
title_fullStr |
On predicting the opening of Arctic sea routes |
title_full_unstemmed |
On predicting the opening of Arctic sea routes |
title_sort |
on predicting the opening of arctic sea routes |
publishDate |
2016 |
url |
https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/66414/ https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/66414/1/14011930_Melia_thesis.pdf https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/66414/2/14011930_Melia_form.pdf |
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ENVELOPE(162.000,162.000,-76.550,-76.550) |
geographic |
Arctic Endeavour |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Endeavour |
genre |
Arctic Arctic Climate change Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Arctic Arctic Climate change Sea ice |
op_relation |
https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/66414/1/14011930_Melia_thesis.pdf https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/66414/2/14011930_Melia_form.pdf Melia, Nat (2016) On predicting the opening of Arctic sea routes. PhD thesis, University of Reading. |
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