Changes in the variability and periodicity of precipitation in Scotland
This paper analyses the temporal and spatial changes in the amount and variability of rainfall in Scotland. The sequential Mann–Kendall test reveals that total annual precipitation has increased across Scotland since the 1970s with increasing trends in variability beginning between the mid-1960s and...
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ftunivreading:oai:centaur.reading.ac.uk:66298 2024-06-23T07:55:07+00:00 Changes in the variability and periodicity of precipitation in Scotland Afzal, M. Gagnon, A. S. Mansell, M. G. 2015-01 text https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/66298/ https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/66298/1/TAC%20Afzal%20et%20al%20Authors%20copy.pdf en eng Springer https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/66298/1/TAC%20Afzal%20et%20al%20Authors%20copy.pdf Afzal, M. <https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/view/creators/90006964.html>, Gagnon, A. S. and Mansell, M. G. (2015) Changes in the variability and periodicity of precipitation in Scotland. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 119 (1). pp. 135-159. ISSN 1434-4483 doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-014-1094-2 <https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-014-1094-2> Article PeerReviewed 2015 ftunivreading https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-014-1094-2 2024-06-11T15:05:53Z This paper analyses the temporal and spatial changes in the amount and variability of rainfall in Scotland. The sequential Mann–Kendall test reveals that total annual precipitation has increased across Scotland since the 1970s with increasing trends in variability beginning between the mid-1960s and the mid-1970s. Whilst temporally consistent increasing trends in precipitation totals prevail in the West, many weather stations in the East have experienced subsequent trend turning points in the following two decades, explaining the larger magnitude of the trends in western Scotland in recent decades. Trend analyses on six measures of rainfall variability indicate an increase in rainfall variability during the period 1961–2000, as measured by the intra-annual variance, the winter to summer precipitation ratio and the annual cumulative sum range, with decreasing trends observed in the number of dry days. Periodicities associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation could explain the observed temporal variability of rainfall. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation CentAUR: Central Archive at the University of Reading Kendall ENVELOPE(-59.828,-59.828,-63.497,-63.497) Theoretical and Applied Climatology 119 1-2 135 159 |
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Open Polar |
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CentAUR: Central Archive at the University of Reading |
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ftunivreading |
language |
English |
description |
This paper analyses the temporal and spatial changes in the amount and variability of rainfall in Scotland. The sequential Mann–Kendall test reveals that total annual precipitation has increased across Scotland since the 1970s with increasing trends in variability beginning between the mid-1960s and the mid-1970s. Whilst temporally consistent increasing trends in precipitation totals prevail in the West, many weather stations in the East have experienced subsequent trend turning points in the following two decades, explaining the larger magnitude of the trends in western Scotland in recent decades. Trend analyses on six measures of rainfall variability indicate an increase in rainfall variability during the period 1961–2000, as measured by the intra-annual variance, the winter to summer precipitation ratio and the annual cumulative sum range, with decreasing trends observed in the number of dry days. Periodicities associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation could explain the observed temporal variability of rainfall. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Afzal, M. Gagnon, A. S. Mansell, M. G. |
spellingShingle |
Afzal, M. Gagnon, A. S. Mansell, M. G. Changes in the variability and periodicity of precipitation in Scotland |
author_facet |
Afzal, M. Gagnon, A. S. Mansell, M. G. |
author_sort |
Afzal, M. |
title |
Changes in the variability and periodicity of precipitation in Scotland |
title_short |
Changes in the variability and periodicity of precipitation in Scotland |
title_full |
Changes in the variability and periodicity of precipitation in Scotland |
title_fullStr |
Changes in the variability and periodicity of precipitation in Scotland |
title_full_unstemmed |
Changes in the variability and periodicity of precipitation in Scotland |
title_sort |
changes in the variability and periodicity of precipitation in scotland |
publisher |
Springer |
publishDate |
2015 |
url |
https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/66298/ https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/66298/1/TAC%20Afzal%20et%20al%20Authors%20copy.pdf |
long_lat |
ENVELOPE(-59.828,-59.828,-63.497,-63.497) |
geographic |
Kendall |
geographic_facet |
Kendall |
genre |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
op_relation |
https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/66298/1/TAC%20Afzal%20et%20al%20Authors%20copy.pdf Afzal, M. <https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/view/creators/90006964.html>, Gagnon, A. S. and Mansell, M. G. (2015) Changes in the variability and periodicity of precipitation in Scotland. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 119 (1). pp. 135-159. ISSN 1434-4483 doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-014-1094-2 <https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-014-1094-2> |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-014-1094-2 |
container_title |
Theoretical and Applied Climatology |
container_volume |
119 |
container_issue |
1-2 |
container_start_page |
135 |
op_container_end_page |
159 |
_version_ |
1802647557477761024 |