How accurate are volcanic ash simulations of the 2010 Eyjafjallajökull eruption?
In the event of a volcanic eruption the decision to close airspace is based on forecast ash maps, produced using volcanic ash transport and dispersion models. In this paper we quantitatively evaluate the spatial skill of volcanic ash simulations using satellite retrievals of ash from the Eyja allajö...
Published in: | Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres |
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American Geophysical Union
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ftunivreading:oai:centaur.reading.ac.uk:65532 2023-09-05T13:19:18+02:00 How accurate are volcanic ash simulations of the 2010 Eyjafjallajökull eruption? Dacre, Helen F. Harvey, Natalie J. Webley, Peter W. Morton, Don 2016-04-25 text https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/65532/ https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/65532/13/Dacre_et_al-2016-Journal_of_Geophysical_Research-_Atmospheres.pdf en eng American Geophysical Union https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/65532/13/Dacre_et_al-2016-Journal_of_Geophysical_Research-_Atmospheres.pdf Dacre, Helen F., Harvey, Natalie J., Webley, Peter W. and Morton, Don (2016) How accurate are volcanic ash simulations of the 2010 Eyjafjallajökull eruption? Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 121 (7). pp. 3534-3547. ISSN 2169-8996 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/2015JD024265 <https://doi.org/10.1002/2015JD024265> cc_by_4 Article PeerReviewed 2016 ftunivreading 2023-08-14T18:01:09Z In the event of a volcanic eruption the decision to close airspace is based on forecast ash maps, produced using volcanic ash transport and dispersion models. In this paper we quantitatively evaluate the spatial skill of volcanic ash simulations using satellite retrievals of ash from the Eyja allajökull eruption during the period from 7 to 16 May 2010. We find that at the start of this period, 7–10 May, the model (FLEXible PARTicle) has excellent skill and can predict the spatial distribution of the satellite-retrieved ash to within 0.5∘ × 0.5∘ latitude/longitude. However, on 10 May there is a decrease in the spatial accuracy of the model to 2.5∘× 2.5∘ latitude/longitude, and between 11 and 12 May the simulated ash location errors grow rapidly. On 11 May ash is located close to a bifurcation point in the atmosphere, resulting in a rapid divergence in the modeled and satellite ash locations. In general, the model skill reduces as the residence time of ash increases. However, the error growth is not always steady. Rapid increases in error growth are linked to key points in the ash trajectories. Ensemble modeling using perturbed meteorological data would help to represent this uncertainty, and assimilation of satellite ash data would help to reduce uncertainty in volcanic ash forecasts. Article in Journal/Newspaper Eyjafjallajökull CentAUR: Central Archive at the University of Reading Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 121 7 3534 3547 |
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CentAUR: Central Archive at the University of Reading |
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ftunivreading |
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English |
description |
In the event of a volcanic eruption the decision to close airspace is based on forecast ash maps, produced using volcanic ash transport and dispersion models. In this paper we quantitatively evaluate the spatial skill of volcanic ash simulations using satellite retrievals of ash from the Eyja allajökull eruption during the period from 7 to 16 May 2010. We find that at the start of this period, 7–10 May, the model (FLEXible PARTicle) has excellent skill and can predict the spatial distribution of the satellite-retrieved ash to within 0.5∘ × 0.5∘ latitude/longitude. However, on 10 May there is a decrease in the spatial accuracy of the model to 2.5∘× 2.5∘ latitude/longitude, and between 11 and 12 May the simulated ash location errors grow rapidly. On 11 May ash is located close to a bifurcation point in the atmosphere, resulting in a rapid divergence in the modeled and satellite ash locations. In general, the model skill reduces as the residence time of ash increases. However, the error growth is not always steady. Rapid increases in error growth are linked to key points in the ash trajectories. Ensemble modeling using perturbed meteorological data would help to represent this uncertainty, and assimilation of satellite ash data would help to reduce uncertainty in volcanic ash forecasts. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Dacre, Helen F. Harvey, Natalie J. Webley, Peter W. Morton, Don |
spellingShingle |
Dacre, Helen F. Harvey, Natalie J. Webley, Peter W. Morton, Don How accurate are volcanic ash simulations of the 2010 Eyjafjallajökull eruption? |
author_facet |
Dacre, Helen F. Harvey, Natalie J. Webley, Peter W. Morton, Don |
author_sort |
Dacre, Helen F. |
title |
How accurate are volcanic ash simulations of the 2010 Eyjafjallajökull eruption? |
title_short |
How accurate are volcanic ash simulations of the 2010 Eyjafjallajökull eruption? |
title_full |
How accurate are volcanic ash simulations of the 2010 Eyjafjallajökull eruption? |
title_fullStr |
How accurate are volcanic ash simulations of the 2010 Eyjafjallajökull eruption? |
title_full_unstemmed |
How accurate are volcanic ash simulations of the 2010 Eyjafjallajökull eruption? |
title_sort |
how accurate are volcanic ash simulations of the 2010 eyjafjallajökull eruption? |
publisher |
American Geophysical Union |
publishDate |
2016 |
url |
https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/65532/ https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/65532/13/Dacre_et_al-2016-Journal_of_Geophysical_Research-_Atmospheres.pdf |
genre |
Eyjafjallajökull |
genre_facet |
Eyjafjallajökull |
op_relation |
https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/65532/13/Dacre_et_al-2016-Journal_of_Geophysical_Research-_Atmospheres.pdf Dacre, Helen F., Harvey, Natalie J., Webley, Peter W. and Morton, Don (2016) How accurate are volcanic ash simulations of the 2010 Eyjafjallajökull eruption? Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 121 (7). pp. 3534-3547. ISSN 2169-8996 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/2015JD024265 <https://doi.org/10.1002/2015JD024265> |
op_rights |
cc_by_4 |
container_title |
Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres |
container_volume |
121 |
container_issue |
7 |
container_start_page |
3534 |
op_container_end_page |
3547 |
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1776200109830176768 |