Evaluation of moisture sources for the Central European summer flood of May/June 2013 based on regional climate model simulations
Heavy precipitation affected Central Europe in May/June 2013, triggering damaging floods both on the Danube and the Elbe rivers. Based on a modelling approach with COSMO-CLM, moisture fluxes, backward trajectories, cyclone tracks and precipitation fields are evaluated for the relevant time period 30...
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ftunivreading:oai:centaur.reading.ac.uk:57488 2024-06-23T07:55:12+00:00 Evaluation of moisture sources for the Central European summer flood of May/June 2013 based on regional climate model simulations Kelemen, Fanni D. Ludwig, Patrick Reyers, Mark Ulbrich, Sven Pinto, Joaquim G. 2016-02-16 text https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/57488/ https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/57488/1/29288-189134-1-PB.pdf https://doi.org/10.3402/tellusa.v68.29288 en eng https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/57488/1/29288-189134-1-PB.pdf Kelemen, F. D., Ludwig, P., Reyers, M., Ulbrich, S. and Pinto, J. G. <https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/view/creators/90005193.html> (2016) Evaluation of moisture sources for the Central European summer flood of May/June 2013 based on regional climate model simulations. Tellus A, 68. 29288. ISSN 0280-6495 doi: https://doi.org/10.3402/tellusa.v68.29288 <https://doi.org/10.3402/tellusa.v68.29288> cc_by_4 Article PeerReviewed 2016 ftunivreading https://doi.org/10.3402/tellusa.v68.29288 2024-06-11T15:05:53Z Heavy precipitation affected Central Europe in May/June 2013, triggering damaging floods both on the Danube and the Elbe rivers. Based on a modelling approach with COSMO-CLM, moisture fluxes, backward trajectories, cyclone tracks and precipitation fields are evaluated for the relevant time period 30 May–2 June 2013. We identify potential moisture sources and quantify their contribution to the flood event focusing on the Danube basin through sensitivity experiments: Control simulations are performed with undisturbed ERA-Interim boundary conditions, while multiple sensitivity experiments are driven with modified evaporation characteristics over selected marine and land areas. Two relevant cyclones are identified both in reanalysis and in our simulations, which moved counter-clockwise in a retrograde path from Southeastern Europe over Eastern Europe towards the northern slopes of the Alps. The control simulations represent the synoptic evolution of the event reasonably well. The evolution of the precipitation event in the control simulations shows some differences in terms of its spatial and temporal characteristics compared to observations. The main precipitation event can be separated into two phases concerning the moisture sources. Our modelling results provide evidence that the two main sources contributing to the event were the continental evapotranspiration (moisture recycling; both phases) and the North Atlantic Ocean (first phase only). The Mediterranean Sea played only a minor role as a moisture source. This study confirms the importance of continental moisture recycling for heavy precipitation events over Central Europe during the summer half year. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic CentAUR: Central Archive at the University of Reading Tellus A: Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography 68 1 29288 |
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Open Polar |
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CentAUR: Central Archive at the University of Reading |
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ftunivreading |
language |
English |
description |
Heavy precipitation affected Central Europe in May/June 2013, triggering damaging floods both on the Danube and the Elbe rivers. Based on a modelling approach with COSMO-CLM, moisture fluxes, backward trajectories, cyclone tracks and precipitation fields are evaluated for the relevant time period 30 May–2 June 2013. We identify potential moisture sources and quantify their contribution to the flood event focusing on the Danube basin through sensitivity experiments: Control simulations are performed with undisturbed ERA-Interim boundary conditions, while multiple sensitivity experiments are driven with modified evaporation characteristics over selected marine and land areas. Two relevant cyclones are identified both in reanalysis and in our simulations, which moved counter-clockwise in a retrograde path from Southeastern Europe over Eastern Europe towards the northern slopes of the Alps. The control simulations represent the synoptic evolution of the event reasonably well. The evolution of the precipitation event in the control simulations shows some differences in terms of its spatial and temporal characteristics compared to observations. The main precipitation event can be separated into two phases concerning the moisture sources. Our modelling results provide evidence that the two main sources contributing to the event were the continental evapotranspiration (moisture recycling; both phases) and the North Atlantic Ocean (first phase only). The Mediterranean Sea played only a minor role as a moisture source. This study confirms the importance of continental moisture recycling for heavy precipitation events over Central Europe during the summer half year. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Kelemen, Fanni D. Ludwig, Patrick Reyers, Mark Ulbrich, Sven Pinto, Joaquim G. |
spellingShingle |
Kelemen, Fanni D. Ludwig, Patrick Reyers, Mark Ulbrich, Sven Pinto, Joaquim G. Evaluation of moisture sources for the Central European summer flood of May/June 2013 based on regional climate model simulations |
author_facet |
Kelemen, Fanni D. Ludwig, Patrick Reyers, Mark Ulbrich, Sven Pinto, Joaquim G. |
author_sort |
Kelemen, Fanni D. |
title |
Evaluation of moisture sources for the Central European summer flood of May/June 2013 based on regional climate model simulations |
title_short |
Evaluation of moisture sources for the Central European summer flood of May/June 2013 based on regional climate model simulations |
title_full |
Evaluation of moisture sources for the Central European summer flood of May/June 2013 based on regional climate model simulations |
title_fullStr |
Evaluation of moisture sources for the Central European summer flood of May/June 2013 based on regional climate model simulations |
title_full_unstemmed |
Evaluation of moisture sources for the Central European summer flood of May/June 2013 based on regional climate model simulations |
title_sort |
evaluation of moisture sources for the central european summer flood of may/june 2013 based on regional climate model simulations |
publishDate |
2016 |
url |
https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/57488/ https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/57488/1/29288-189134-1-PB.pdf https://doi.org/10.3402/tellusa.v68.29288 |
genre |
North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic |
op_relation |
https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/57488/1/29288-189134-1-PB.pdf Kelemen, F. D., Ludwig, P., Reyers, M., Ulbrich, S. and Pinto, J. G. <https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/view/creators/90005193.html> (2016) Evaluation of moisture sources for the Central European summer flood of May/June 2013 based on regional climate model simulations. Tellus A, 68. 29288. ISSN 0280-6495 doi: https://doi.org/10.3402/tellusa.v68.29288 <https://doi.org/10.3402/tellusa.v68.29288> |
op_rights |
cc_by_4 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.3402/tellusa.v68.29288 |
container_title |
Tellus A: Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography |
container_volume |
68 |
container_issue |
1 |
container_start_page |
29288 |
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1802647685811929088 |