Examining the predictability of the Stratospheric Sudden Warming of January 2013 using multiple NWP systems
The first multi-model study to estimate the predictability of a boreal Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) is performed using five NWP systems. During the 2012-2013 boreal winter, anomalous upward propagating planetary wave activity was observed towards the end of December, which followed by a rapid...
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American Meteorological Society
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ftunivreading:oai:centaur.reading.ac.uk:56573 2024-09-15T18:23:56+00:00 Examining the predictability of the Stratospheric Sudden Warming of January 2013 using multiple NWP systems Tripathi, Om P. Baldwin, Mark Charlton-Perez, Andrew Charron, Martin Cheung, Jacob C. H. Eckermann, Stephen D. Gerber, Edwin Jackson, David R. Kuroda, Yuhji Lang, Andrea Mclay, Justin Mizuta, Ryo Reynolds, Carolyn Roff, Greg Sigmond, Michael Son, Seok-Woo Stockdale, Tim 2016-05 text https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/56573/ https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/56573/1/mwr-d-15-0010%252E1.pdf https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-15-0010.1 en eng American Meteorological Society https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/56573/1/mwr-d-15-0010%252E1.pdf Tripathi, O. P. <https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/view/creators/90005181.html>, Baldwin, M., Charlton-Perez, A. <https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/view/creators/90000511.html> orcid:0000-0001-8179-6220 , Charron, M., Cheung, J. C. H., Eckermann, S. D., Gerber, E., Jackson, D. R., Kuroda, Y., Lang, A., Mclay, J., Mizuta, R., Reynolds, C., Roff, G., Sigmond, M., Son, S.-W. and Stockdale, T. (2016) Examining the predictability of the Stratospheric Sudden Warming of January 2013 using multiple NWP systems. Monthly Weather Review, 144 (5). pp. 1935-1960. ISSN 0027-0644 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-15-0010.1 <https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-15-0010.1> Article PeerReviewed 2016 ftunivreading https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-15-0010.1 2024-06-25T14:58:45Z The first multi-model study to estimate the predictability of a boreal Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) is performed using five NWP systems. During the 2012-2013 boreal winter, anomalous upward propagating planetary wave activity was observed towards the end of December, which followed by a rapid deceleration of the westerly circulation around 2 January 2013, and on 7 January 2013 the zonal mean zonal wind at 60°N and 10 hPa reversed to easterly. This stratospheric dynamical activity was followed by an equatorward shift of the tropospheric jet stream and by a high pressure anomaly over the North Atlantic, which resulted in severe cold conditions in the UK and Northern Europe. In most of the five models, the SSW event was predicted 10 days in advance. However, only some ensemble members in most of the models predicted weakening of westerly wind when the models were initialized 15 days in advance of the SSW. Further dynamical analysis of the SSW shows that this event was characterized by the anomalous planetary wave-1 amplification followed by the anomalous wave-2 amplification in the stratosphere, which resulted in a split vortex occurring between 6 January 2013 and 8 January 2013. The models have some success in reproducing wave-1 activity when initialized 15 days in advance, they but generally failed to produce the wave-2 activity during the final days of the event. Detailed analysis shows that models have reasonably good skill in forecasting tropospheric blocking features that stimulate wave-2 amplification in the troposphere, but they have limited skill in reproducing wave-2 amplification in the stratosphere. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic CentAUR: Central Archive at the University of Reading Monthly Weather Review 144 5 1935 1960 |
institution |
Open Polar |
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CentAUR: Central Archive at the University of Reading |
op_collection_id |
ftunivreading |
language |
English |
description |
The first multi-model study to estimate the predictability of a boreal Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) is performed using five NWP systems. During the 2012-2013 boreal winter, anomalous upward propagating planetary wave activity was observed towards the end of December, which followed by a rapid deceleration of the westerly circulation around 2 January 2013, and on 7 January 2013 the zonal mean zonal wind at 60°N and 10 hPa reversed to easterly. This stratospheric dynamical activity was followed by an equatorward shift of the tropospheric jet stream and by a high pressure anomaly over the North Atlantic, which resulted in severe cold conditions in the UK and Northern Europe. In most of the five models, the SSW event was predicted 10 days in advance. However, only some ensemble members in most of the models predicted weakening of westerly wind when the models were initialized 15 days in advance of the SSW. Further dynamical analysis of the SSW shows that this event was characterized by the anomalous planetary wave-1 amplification followed by the anomalous wave-2 amplification in the stratosphere, which resulted in a split vortex occurring between 6 January 2013 and 8 January 2013. The models have some success in reproducing wave-1 activity when initialized 15 days in advance, they but generally failed to produce the wave-2 activity during the final days of the event. Detailed analysis shows that models have reasonably good skill in forecasting tropospheric blocking features that stimulate wave-2 amplification in the troposphere, but they have limited skill in reproducing wave-2 amplification in the stratosphere. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Tripathi, Om P. Baldwin, Mark Charlton-Perez, Andrew Charron, Martin Cheung, Jacob C. H. Eckermann, Stephen D. Gerber, Edwin Jackson, David R. Kuroda, Yuhji Lang, Andrea Mclay, Justin Mizuta, Ryo Reynolds, Carolyn Roff, Greg Sigmond, Michael Son, Seok-Woo Stockdale, Tim |
spellingShingle |
Tripathi, Om P. Baldwin, Mark Charlton-Perez, Andrew Charron, Martin Cheung, Jacob C. H. Eckermann, Stephen D. Gerber, Edwin Jackson, David R. Kuroda, Yuhji Lang, Andrea Mclay, Justin Mizuta, Ryo Reynolds, Carolyn Roff, Greg Sigmond, Michael Son, Seok-Woo Stockdale, Tim Examining the predictability of the Stratospheric Sudden Warming of January 2013 using multiple NWP systems |
author_facet |
Tripathi, Om P. Baldwin, Mark Charlton-Perez, Andrew Charron, Martin Cheung, Jacob C. H. Eckermann, Stephen D. Gerber, Edwin Jackson, David R. Kuroda, Yuhji Lang, Andrea Mclay, Justin Mizuta, Ryo Reynolds, Carolyn Roff, Greg Sigmond, Michael Son, Seok-Woo Stockdale, Tim |
author_sort |
Tripathi, Om P. |
title |
Examining the predictability of the Stratospheric Sudden Warming of January 2013 using multiple NWP systems |
title_short |
Examining the predictability of the Stratospheric Sudden Warming of January 2013 using multiple NWP systems |
title_full |
Examining the predictability of the Stratospheric Sudden Warming of January 2013 using multiple NWP systems |
title_fullStr |
Examining the predictability of the Stratospheric Sudden Warming of January 2013 using multiple NWP systems |
title_full_unstemmed |
Examining the predictability of the Stratospheric Sudden Warming of January 2013 using multiple NWP systems |
title_sort |
examining the predictability of the stratospheric sudden warming of january 2013 using multiple nwp systems |
publisher |
American Meteorological Society |
publishDate |
2016 |
url |
https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/56573/ https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/56573/1/mwr-d-15-0010%252E1.pdf https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-15-0010.1 |
genre |
North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic |
op_relation |
https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/56573/1/mwr-d-15-0010%252E1.pdf Tripathi, O. P. <https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/view/creators/90005181.html>, Baldwin, M., Charlton-Perez, A. <https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/view/creators/90000511.html> orcid:0000-0001-8179-6220 , Charron, M., Cheung, J. C. H., Eckermann, S. D., Gerber, E., Jackson, D. R., Kuroda, Y., Lang, A., Mclay, J., Mizuta, R., Reynolds, C., Roff, G., Sigmond, M., Son, S.-W. and Stockdale, T. (2016) Examining the predictability of the Stratospheric Sudden Warming of January 2013 using multiple NWP systems. Monthly Weather Review, 144 (5). pp. 1935-1960. ISSN 0027-0644 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-15-0010.1 <https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-15-0010.1> |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-15-0010.1 |
container_title |
Monthly Weather Review |
container_volume |
144 |
container_issue |
5 |
container_start_page |
1935 |
op_container_end_page |
1960 |
_version_ |
1810464217586728960 |