Data insertion in volcanic ash cloud forecasting
During the eruption of Eyjafjallajökull in April and May 2010, the London Volcanic Ash Advisory Centre demonstrated the importance of infrared (IR) satellite imagery for monitoring volcanic ash and validating the Met Office operational model, NAME. This model is used to forecast ash dispersion and f...
Published in: | Annals of Geophysics |
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Institute Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia
2016
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Online Access: | https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/55077/ https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/55077/8/6624-14997-1-PB.pdf https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/55077/1/6624-14997-1-PB.pdf http://www.annalsofgeophysics.eu/index.php/annals/article/view/6624 |
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ftunivreading:oai:centaur.reading.ac.uk:55077 2023-09-05T13:19:18+02:00 Data insertion in volcanic ash cloud forecasting Wilkins, K. L. Mackie, S. Watson, M. Webster, H. N. Thomson, D. J. Dacre, Helen F. 2016-02-12 text https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/55077/ https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/55077/8/6624-14997-1-PB.pdf https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/55077/1/6624-14997-1-PB.pdf http://www.annalsofgeophysics.eu/index.php/annals/article/view/6624 en eng Institute Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/55077/8/6624-14997-1-PB.pdf https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/55077/1/6624-14997-1-PB.pdf Wilkins, K. L., Mackie, S., Watson, M., Webster, H. N., Thomson, D. J. and Dacre, Helen F. (2016) Data insertion in volcanic ash cloud forecasting. Annals of Geophysics, 57. ISSN 2037-416X doi: https://doi.org/10.4401/ag-6624 <https://doi.org/10.4401/ag-6624> (Fast Track 2) cc_by Article PeerReviewed 2016 ftunivreading https://doi.org/10.4401/ag-6624 2023-08-14T18:00:27Z During the eruption of Eyjafjallajökull in April and May 2010, the London Volcanic Ash Advisory Centre demonstrated the importance of infrared (IR) satellite imagery for monitoring volcanic ash and validating the Met Office operational model, NAME. This model is used to forecast ash dispersion and forms much of the basis of the advice given to civil aviation. NAME requires a source term describing the properties of the eruption plume at the volcanic source. Elements of the source term are often highly uncertain and significant effort has therefore been invested into the use of satellite observations of ash clouds to constrain them. This paper presents a data insertion method, where satellite observations of downwind ash clouds are used to create effective ‘virtual sources’ far from the vent. Uncertainty in the model output is known to increase over the duration of a model run, as inaccuracies in the source term, meteorological data and the parameterizations of the modelled processes accumulate. This new technique, where the dispersion model (DM) is ‘reinitialized’ part-way through a run, could go some way to addressing this. Article in Journal/Newspaper Eyjafjallajökull CentAUR: Central Archive at the University of Reading Annals of Geophysics 57 |
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Open Polar |
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CentAUR: Central Archive at the University of Reading |
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ftunivreading |
language |
English |
description |
During the eruption of Eyjafjallajökull in April and May 2010, the London Volcanic Ash Advisory Centre demonstrated the importance of infrared (IR) satellite imagery for monitoring volcanic ash and validating the Met Office operational model, NAME. This model is used to forecast ash dispersion and forms much of the basis of the advice given to civil aviation. NAME requires a source term describing the properties of the eruption plume at the volcanic source. Elements of the source term are often highly uncertain and significant effort has therefore been invested into the use of satellite observations of ash clouds to constrain them. This paper presents a data insertion method, where satellite observations of downwind ash clouds are used to create effective ‘virtual sources’ far from the vent. Uncertainty in the model output is known to increase over the duration of a model run, as inaccuracies in the source term, meteorological data and the parameterizations of the modelled processes accumulate. This new technique, where the dispersion model (DM) is ‘reinitialized’ part-way through a run, could go some way to addressing this. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Wilkins, K. L. Mackie, S. Watson, M. Webster, H. N. Thomson, D. J. Dacre, Helen F. |
spellingShingle |
Wilkins, K. L. Mackie, S. Watson, M. Webster, H. N. Thomson, D. J. Dacre, Helen F. Data insertion in volcanic ash cloud forecasting |
author_facet |
Wilkins, K. L. Mackie, S. Watson, M. Webster, H. N. Thomson, D. J. Dacre, Helen F. |
author_sort |
Wilkins, K. L. |
title |
Data insertion in volcanic ash cloud forecasting |
title_short |
Data insertion in volcanic ash cloud forecasting |
title_full |
Data insertion in volcanic ash cloud forecasting |
title_fullStr |
Data insertion in volcanic ash cloud forecasting |
title_full_unstemmed |
Data insertion in volcanic ash cloud forecasting |
title_sort |
data insertion in volcanic ash cloud forecasting |
publisher |
Institute Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia |
publishDate |
2016 |
url |
https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/55077/ https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/55077/8/6624-14997-1-PB.pdf https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/55077/1/6624-14997-1-PB.pdf http://www.annalsofgeophysics.eu/index.php/annals/article/view/6624 |
genre |
Eyjafjallajökull |
genre_facet |
Eyjafjallajökull |
op_relation |
https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/55077/8/6624-14997-1-PB.pdf https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/55077/1/6624-14997-1-PB.pdf Wilkins, K. L., Mackie, S., Watson, M., Webster, H. N., Thomson, D. J. and Dacre, Helen F. (2016) Data insertion in volcanic ash cloud forecasting. Annals of Geophysics, 57. ISSN 2037-416X doi: https://doi.org/10.4401/ag-6624 <https://doi.org/10.4401/ag-6624> (Fast Track 2) |
op_rights |
cc_by |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.4401/ag-6624 |
container_title |
Annals of Geophysics |
container_volume |
57 |
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1776200109036404736 |