Improved Arctic sea-ice thickness projections using bias corrected CMIP5 simulations
Projections of Arctic sea ice thickness (SIT) have the potential to inform stakeholders about accessibility to the region, but are currently rather uncertain. The latest suite of CMIP5 Global Climate Models (GCMs) produce a wide range of simulated SIT in the historical period (1979–2014) and exhibit...
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European Geosciences Union
2015
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ftunivreading:oai:centaur.reading.ac.uk:47079 2023-09-05T13:15:54+02:00 Improved Arctic sea-ice thickness projections using bias corrected CMIP5 simulations Melia, Nathaneal Haines, Keith Hawkins, Ed 2015-12-04 text https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/47079/ https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/47079/8/tc-9-2237-2015.pdf https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/47079/1/FOR%20CentAUR%20Improved%20Arctic%20sea%20ice%20thickness%20projections%20using%20bias%20corrected%20CMIP5%20simulations.pdf en eng European Geosciences Union https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/47079/8/tc-9-2237-2015.pdf https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/47079/1/FOR%20CentAUR%20Improved%20Arctic%20sea%20ice%20thickness%20projections%20using%20bias%20corrected%20CMIP5%20simulations.pdf Melia, Nathaneal, Haines, Keith and Hawkins, Ed (2015) Improved Arctic sea-ice thickness projections using bias corrected CMIP5 simulations. The Cryosphere, 9 (6). pp. 2237-2251. ISSN 1994-0424 doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-2237-2015 <https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-2237-2015> cc_by Article PeerReviewed 2015 ftunivreading https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-2237-2015 2023-08-14T17:59:33Z Projections of Arctic sea ice thickness (SIT) have the potential to inform stakeholders about accessibility to the region, but are currently rather uncertain. The latest suite of CMIP5 Global Climate Models (GCMs) produce a wide range of simulated SIT in the historical period (1979–2014) and exhibit various biases when compared with the Pan-Arctic Ice Ocean Modelling and Assimilation System (PIOMAS) sea ice reanalysis. We present a new method to constrain such GCM simulations of SIT via a statistical bias correction technique. The bias correction successfully constrains the spatial SIT distribution and temporal variability in the CMIP5 projections whilst retaining the climatic fluctuations from individual ensemble members. The bias correction acts to reduce the spread in projections of SIT and reveals the significant contributions of climate internal variability in the first half of the century and of scenario uncertainty from mid-century onwards. The projected date of ice-free conditions in the Arctic under the RCP8.5 high emission scenario occurs in the 2050s, which is a decade earlier than without the bias correction, with potentially significant implications for stakeholders in the Arctic such as the shipping industry. The bias correction methodology developed could be similarly applied to other variables to reduce spread in climate projections more generally. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Arctic Sea ice The Cryosphere CentAUR: Central Archive at the University of Reading Arctic The Cryosphere 9 6 2237 2251 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
CentAUR: Central Archive at the University of Reading |
op_collection_id |
ftunivreading |
language |
English |
description |
Projections of Arctic sea ice thickness (SIT) have the potential to inform stakeholders about accessibility to the region, but are currently rather uncertain. The latest suite of CMIP5 Global Climate Models (GCMs) produce a wide range of simulated SIT in the historical period (1979–2014) and exhibit various biases when compared with the Pan-Arctic Ice Ocean Modelling and Assimilation System (PIOMAS) sea ice reanalysis. We present a new method to constrain such GCM simulations of SIT via a statistical bias correction technique. The bias correction successfully constrains the spatial SIT distribution and temporal variability in the CMIP5 projections whilst retaining the climatic fluctuations from individual ensemble members. The bias correction acts to reduce the spread in projections of SIT and reveals the significant contributions of climate internal variability in the first half of the century and of scenario uncertainty from mid-century onwards. The projected date of ice-free conditions in the Arctic under the RCP8.5 high emission scenario occurs in the 2050s, which is a decade earlier than without the bias correction, with potentially significant implications for stakeholders in the Arctic such as the shipping industry. The bias correction methodology developed could be similarly applied to other variables to reduce spread in climate projections more generally. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Melia, Nathaneal Haines, Keith Hawkins, Ed |
spellingShingle |
Melia, Nathaneal Haines, Keith Hawkins, Ed Improved Arctic sea-ice thickness projections using bias corrected CMIP5 simulations |
author_facet |
Melia, Nathaneal Haines, Keith Hawkins, Ed |
author_sort |
Melia, Nathaneal |
title |
Improved Arctic sea-ice thickness projections using bias corrected CMIP5 simulations |
title_short |
Improved Arctic sea-ice thickness projections using bias corrected CMIP5 simulations |
title_full |
Improved Arctic sea-ice thickness projections using bias corrected CMIP5 simulations |
title_fullStr |
Improved Arctic sea-ice thickness projections using bias corrected CMIP5 simulations |
title_full_unstemmed |
Improved Arctic sea-ice thickness projections using bias corrected CMIP5 simulations |
title_sort |
improved arctic sea-ice thickness projections using bias corrected cmip5 simulations |
publisher |
European Geosciences Union |
publishDate |
2015 |
url |
https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/47079/ https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/47079/8/tc-9-2237-2015.pdf https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/47079/1/FOR%20CentAUR%20Improved%20Arctic%20sea%20ice%20thickness%20projections%20using%20bias%20corrected%20CMIP5%20simulations.pdf |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic Arctic Sea ice The Cryosphere |
genre_facet |
Arctic Arctic Sea ice The Cryosphere |
op_relation |
https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/47079/8/tc-9-2237-2015.pdf https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/47079/1/FOR%20CentAUR%20Improved%20Arctic%20sea%20ice%20thickness%20projections%20using%20bias%20corrected%20CMIP5%20simulations.pdf Melia, Nathaneal, Haines, Keith and Hawkins, Ed (2015) Improved Arctic sea-ice thickness projections using bias corrected CMIP5 simulations. The Cryosphere, 9 (6). pp. 2237-2251. ISSN 1994-0424 doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-2237-2015 <https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-2237-2015> |
op_rights |
cc_by |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-2237-2015 |
container_title |
The Cryosphere |
container_volume |
9 |
container_issue |
6 |
container_start_page |
2237 |
op_container_end_page |
2251 |
_version_ |
1776197700854743040 |