Aspects of designing and evaluating seasonal-to-interannual Arctic sea-ice prediction systems
Using lessons from idealised predictability experiments, we discuss some issues and perspectives on the design of operational seasonal to inter-annual Arctic sea-ice prediction systems. We first review the opportunities to use a hierarchy of different types of experiment to learn about the predictab...
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ftunivreading:oai:centaur.reading.ac.uk:41430 2024-06-23T07:48:43+00:00 Aspects of designing and evaluating seasonal-to-interannual Arctic sea-ice prediction systems Hawkins, Ed Tietsche, Steffen Day, Jonathan J. Melia, Nathanael Haines, Keith Keeley, Sarah 2016-01 text https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/41430/ https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/41430/1/Hawkins_et_al-2015-Quarterly_Journal_of_the_Royal_Meteorological_Society.pdf https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2643 en eng Royal Meteorological Society https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/41430/1/Hawkins_et_al-2015-Quarterly_Journal_of_the_Royal_Meteorological_Society.pdf Hawkins, E. <https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/view/creators/90000949.html> orcid:0000-0001-9477-3677 , Tietsche, S. <https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/view/creators/90004675.html>, Day, J. J. <https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/view/creators/90004387.html>, Melia, N., Haines, K. <https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/view/creators/90000002.html> orcid:0000-0003-2768-2374 and Keeley, S. (2016) Aspects of designing and evaluating seasonal-to-interannual Arctic sea-ice prediction systems. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 142 (695). pp. 672-683. ISSN 1477-870X doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2643 <https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2643> Article PeerReviewed 2016 ftunivreading https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2643 2024-06-11T15:04:44Z Using lessons from idealised predictability experiments, we discuss some issues and perspectives on the design of operational seasonal to inter-annual Arctic sea-ice prediction systems. We first review the opportunities to use a hierarchy of different types of experiment to learn about the predictability of Arctic climate. We also examine key issues for ensemble system design, such as: measuring skill, the role of ensemble size and generation of ensemble members. When assessing the potential skill of a set of prediction experiments, using more than one metric is essential as different choices can significantly alter conclusions about the presence or lack of skill. We find that increasing both the number of hindcasts and ensemble size is important for reliably assessing the correlation and expected error in forecasts. For other metrics, such as dispersion, increasing ensemble size is most important. Probabilistic measures of skill can also provide useful information about the reliability of forecasts. In addition, various methods for generating the different ensemble members are tested. The range of techniques can produce surprisingly different ensemble spread characteristics. The lessons learnt should help inform the design of future operational prediction systems. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Arctic Sea ice CentAUR: Central Archive at the University of Reading Arctic Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 142 695 672 683 |
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Open Polar |
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CentAUR: Central Archive at the University of Reading |
op_collection_id |
ftunivreading |
language |
English |
description |
Using lessons from idealised predictability experiments, we discuss some issues and perspectives on the design of operational seasonal to inter-annual Arctic sea-ice prediction systems. We first review the opportunities to use a hierarchy of different types of experiment to learn about the predictability of Arctic climate. We also examine key issues for ensemble system design, such as: measuring skill, the role of ensemble size and generation of ensemble members. When assessing the potential skill of a set of prediction experiments, using more than one metric is essential as different choices can significantly alter conclusions about the presence or lack of skill. We find that increasing both the number of hindcasts and ensemble size is important for reliably assessing the correlation and expected error in forecasts. For other metrics, such as dispersion, increasing ensemble size is most important. Probabilistic measures of skill can also provide useful information about the reliability of forecasts. In addition, various methods for generating the different ensemble members are tested. The range of techniques can produce surprisingly different ensemble spread characteristics. The lessons learnt should help inform the design of future operational prediction systems. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Hawkins, Ed Tietsche, Steffen Day, Jonathan J. Melia, Nathanael Haines, Keith Keeley, Sarah |
spellingShingle |
Hawkins, Ed Tietsche, Steffen Day, Jonathan J. Melia, Nathanael Haines, Keith Keeley, Sarah Aspects of designing and evaluating seasonal-to-interannual Arctic sea-ice prediction systems |
author_facet |
Hawkins, Ed Tietsche, Steffen Day, Jonathan J. Melia, Nathanael Haines, Keith Keeley, Sarah |
author_sort |
Hawkins, Ed |
title |
Aspects of designing and evaluating seasonal-to-interannual Arctic sea-ice prediction systems |
title_short |
Aspects of designing and evaluating seasonal-to-interannual Arctic sea-ice prediction systems |
title_full |
Aspects of designing and evaluating seasonal-to-interannual Arctic sea-ice prediction systems |
title_fullStr |
Aspects of designing and evaluating seasonal-to-interannual Arctic sea-ice prediction systems |
title_full_unstemmed |
Aspects of designing and evaluating seasonal-to-interannual Arctic sea-ice prediction systems |
title_sort |
aspects of designing and evaluating seasonal-to-interannual arctic sea-ice prediction systems |
publisher |
Royal Meteorological Society |
publishDate |
2016 |
url |
https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/41430/ https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/41430/1/Hawkins_et_al-2015-Quarterly_Journal_of_the_Royal_Meteorological_Society.pdf https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2643 |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic Arctic Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Arctic Arctic Sea ice |
op_relation |
https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/41430/1/Hawkins_et_al-2015-Quarterly_Journal_of_the_Royal_Meteorological_Society.pdf Hawkins, E. <https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/view/creators/90000949.html> orcid:0000-0001-9477-3677 , Tietsche, S. <https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/view/creators/90004675.html>, Day, J. J. <https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/view/creators/90004387.html>, Melia, N., Haines, K. <https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/view/creators/90000002.html> orcid:0000-0003-2768-2374 and Keeley, S. (2016) Aspects of designing and evaluating seasonal-to-interannual Arctic sea-ice prediction systems. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 142 (695). pp. 672-683. ISSN 1477-870X doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2643 <https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2643> |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2643 |
container_title |
Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society |
container_volume |
142 |
container_issue |
695 |
container_start_page |
672 |
op_container_end_page |
683 |
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1802639044396449792 |