September Arctic sea-ice minimum predicted by spring melt-pond fraction
The area of Arctic September sea ice has diminished from about 7 million km2 in the 1990s to less than 5 million km2 in five of the past seven years, with a record minimum of 3.6 million km2 in 2012 (ref. 1). The strength of this decrease is greater than expected by the scientific community, the rea...
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ftunivreading:oai:centaur.reading.ac.uk:36482 2024-09-15T17:35:45+00:00 September Arctic sea-ice minimum predicted by spring melt-pond fraction Schröder, David Feltham, Daniel L. Flocco, Daniela Tsamados, Michel 2014-04-20 https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/36482/ http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/nclimate2203.html unknown Nature Publishing Group Schröder, D. <https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/view/creators/90005031.html> orcid:0000-0003-2351-4306 , Feltham, D. L. <https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/view/creators/90004991.html> orcid:0000-0003-2289-014X , Flocco, D. <https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/view/creators/90005015.html> and Tsamados, M. <https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/view/creators/90005017.html> (2014) September Arctic sea-ice minimum predicted by spring melt-pond fraction. Nature Climate Change, 4 (5). pp. 353-357. ISSN 1758-6798 doi: https://doi.org/10.1038/NCLIMATE2203 <https://doi.org/10.1038/NCLIMATE2203> Article PeerReviewed 2014 ftunivreading https://doi.org/10.1038/NCLIMATE2203 2024-07-30T14:08:25Z The area of Arctic September sea ice has diminished from about 7 million km2 in the 1990s to less than 5 million km2 in five of the past seven years, with a record minimum of 3.6 million km2 in 2012 (ref. 1). The strength of this decrease is greater than expected by the scientific community, the reasons for this are not fully understood, and its simulation is an on-going challenge for existing climate models2, 3. With growing Arctic marine activity there is an urgent demand for forecasting Arctic summer sea ice4. Previous attempts at seasonal forecasts of ice extent were of limited skill5, 6, 7, 8, 9. However, here we show that the Arctic sea-ice minimum can be accurately forecasted from melt-pond area in spring. We find a strong correlation between the spring pond fraction and September sea-ice extent. This is explained by a positive feedback mechanism: more ponds reduce the albedo; a lower albedo causes more melting; more melting increases pond fraction. Our results help explain the acceleration of Arctic sea-ice decrease during the past decade. The inclusion of our new melt-pond model10 promises to improve the skill of future forecast and climate models in Arctic regions and beyond. Article in Journal/Newspaper albedo Arctic Sea ice CentAUR: Central Archive at the University of Reading Nature Climate Change 4 5 353 357 |
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The area of Arctic September sea ice has diminished from about 7 million km2 in the 1990s to less than 5 million km2 in five of the past seven years, with a record minimum of 3.6 million km2 in 2012 (ref. 1). The strength of this decrease is greater than expected by the scientific community, the reasons for this are not fully understood, and its simulation is an on-going challenge for existing climate models2, 3. With growing Arctic marine activity there is an urgent demand for forecasting Arctic summer sea ice4. Previous attempts at seasonal forecasts of ice extent were of limited skill5, 6, 7, 8, 9. However, here we show that the Arctic sea-ice minimum can be accurately forecasted from melt-pond area in spring. We find a strong correlation between the spring pond fraction and September sea-ice extent. This is explained by a positive feedback mechanism: more ponds reduce the albedo; a lower albedo causes more melting; more melting increases pond fraction. Our results help explain the acceleration of Arctic sea-ice decrease during the past decade. The inclusion of our new melt-pond model10 promises to improve the skill of future forecast and climate models in Arctic regions and beyond. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Schröder, David Feltham, Daniel L. Flocco, Daniela Tsamados, Michel |
spellingShingle |
Schröder, David Feltham, Daniel L. Flocco, Daniela Tsamados, Michel September Arctic sea-ice minimum predicted by spring melt-pond fraction |
author_facet |
Schröder, David Feltham, Daniel L. Flocco, Daniela Tsamados, Michel |
author_sort |
Schröder, David |
title |
September Arctic sea-ice minimum predicted by spring melt-pond fraction |
title_short |
September Arctic sea-ice minimum predicted by spring melt-pond fraction |
title_full |
September Arctic sea-ice minimum predicted by spring melt-pond fraction |
title_fullStr |
September Arctic sea-ice minimum predicted by spring melt-pond fraction |
title_full_unstemmed |
September Arctic sea-ice minimum predicted by spring melt-pond fraction |
title_sort |
september arctic sea-ice minimum predicted by spring melt-pond fraction |
publisher |
Nature Publishing Group |
publishDate |
2014 |
url |
https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/36482/ http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/nclimate2203.html |
genre |
albedo Arctic Sea ice |
genre_facet |
albedo Arctic Sea ice |
op_relation |
Schröder, D. <https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/view/creators/90005031.html> orcid:0000-0003-2351-4306 , Feltham, D. L. <https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/view/creators/90004991.html> orcid:0000-0003-2289-014X , Flocco, D. <https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/view/creators/90005015.html> and Tsamados, M. <https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/view/creators/90005017.html> (2014) September Arctic sea-ice minimum predicted by spring melt-pond fraction. Nature Climate Change, 4 (5). pp. 353-357. ISSN 1758-6798 doi: https://doi.org/10.1038/NCLIMATE2203 <https://doi.org/10.1038/NCLIMATE2203> |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1038/NCLIMATE2203 |
container_title |
Nature Climate Change |
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4 |
container_issue |
5 |
container_start_page |
353 |
op_container_end_page |
357 |
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1810477956121755648 |