Serial clustering of extratropical cyclones over the North Atlantic and Europe under recent and future climate conditions
Under particular large-scale atmospheric conditions, several windstorms may affect Europe within a short time period. The occurrence of such cyclone families leads to large socioeconomic impacts and cumulative losses. The serial clustering of windstorms is analyzed for the North Atlantic/western Eur...
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Online Access: | https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/35545/ https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/35545/1/Pinto_2013_pbkd_jgra.pdf https://doi.org/10.1002/2013JD020564 |
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ftunivreading:oai:centaur.reading.ac.uk:35545 2024-06-23T07:54:48+00:00 Serial clustering of extratropical cyclones over the North Atlantic and Europe under recent and future climate conditions Pinto, Joaquim G. Bellenbaum, Nina Karremann, Melanie K. Della-Marta, Paul M. 2013-11-27 text https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/35545/ https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/35545/1/Pinto_2013_pbkd_jgra.pdf https://doi.org/10.1002/2013JD020564 en eng American Geophysical Union https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/35545/1/Pinto_2013_pbkd_jgra.pdf Pinto, J. G. <https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/view/creators/90005193.html>, Bellenbaum, N., Karremann, M. K. and Della-Marta, P. M. (2013) Serial clustering of extratropical cyclones over the North Atlantic and Europe under recent and future climate conditions. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 118 (22). 12,476-12,485. ISSN 2169-8996 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/2013JD020564 <https://doi.org/10.1002/2013JD020564> Article PeerReviewed 2013 ftunivreading https://doi.org/10.1002/2013JD020564 2024-06-11T15:01:09Z Under particular large-scale atmospheric conditions, several windstorms may affect Europe within a short time period. The occurrence of such cyclone families leads to large socioeconomic impacts and cumulative losses. The serial clustering of windstorms is analyzed for the North Atlantic/western Europe. Clustering is quantified as the dispersion (ratio variance/mean) of cyclone passages over a certain area. Dispersion statistics are derived for three reanalysis data sets and a 20-run European Centre Hamburg Version 5 /Max Planck Institute Version–Ocean Model Version 1 global climate model (ECHAM5/MPI-OM1 GCM) ensemble. The dependence of the seriality on cyclone intensity is analyzed. Confirming previous studies, serial clustering is identified in reanalysis data sets primarily on both flanks and downstream regions of the North Atlantic storm track. This pattern is a robust feature in the reanalysis data sets. For the whole area, extreme cyclones cluster more than nonextreme cyclones. The ECHAM5/MPI-OM1 GCM is generally able to reproduce the spatial patterns of clustering under recent climate conditions, but some biases are identified. Under future climate conditions (A1B scenario), the GCM ensemble indicates that serial clustering may decrease over the North Atlantic storm track area and parts of western Europe. This decrease is associated with an extension of the polar jet toward Europe, which implies a tendency to a more regular occurrence of cyclones over parts of the North Atlantic Basin poleward of 50°N and western Europe. An increase of clustering of cyclones is projected south of Newfoundland. The detected shifts imply a change in the risk of occurrence of cumulative events over Europe under future climate conditions. Article in Journal/Newspaper Newfoundland North Atlantic CentAUR: Central Archive at the University of Reading Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 118 22 12,476 12,485 |
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Open Polar |
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CentAUR: Central Archive at the University of Reading |
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ftunivreading |
language |
English |
description |
Under particular large-scale atmospheric conditions, several windstorms may affect Europe within a short time period. The occurrence of such cyclone families leads to large socioeconomic impacts and cumulative losses. The serial clustering of windstorms is analyzed for the North Atlantic/western Europe. Clustering is quantified as the dispersion (ratio variance/mean) of cyclone passages over a certain area. Dispersion statistics are derived for three reanalysis data sets and a 20-run European Centre Hamburg Version 5 /Max Planck Institute Version–Ocean Model Version 1 global climate model (ECHAM5/MPI-OM1 GCM) ensemble. The dependence of the seriality on cyclone intensity is analyzed. Confirming previous studies, serial clustering is identified in reanalysis data sets primarily on both flanks and downstream regions of the North Atlantic storm track. This pattern is a robust feature in the reanalysis data sets. For the whole area, extreme cyclones cluster more than nonextreme cyclones. The ECHAM5/MPI-OM1 GCM is generally able to reproduce the spatial patterns of clustering under recent climate conditions, but some biases are identified. Under future climate conditions (A1B scenario), the GCM ensemble indicates that serial clustering may decrease over the North Atlantic storm track area and parts of western Europe. This decrease is associated with an extension of the polar jet toward Europe, which implies a tendency to a more regular occurrence of cyclones over parts of the North Atlantic Basin poleward of 50°N and western Europe. An increase of clustering of cyclones is projected south of Newfoundland. The detected shifts imply a change in the risk of occurrence of cumulative events over Europe under future climate conditions. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Pinto, Joaquim G. Bellenbaum, Nina Karremann, Melanie K. Della-Marta, Paul M. |
spellingShingle |
Pinto, Joaquim G. Bellenbaum, Nina Karremann, Melanie K. Della-Marta, Paul M. Serial clustering of extratropical cyclones over the North Atlantic and Europe under recent and future climate conditions |
author_facet |
Pinto, Joaquim G. Bellenbaum, Nina Karremann, Melanie K. Della-Marta, Paul M. |
author_sort |
Pinto, Joaquim G. |
title |
Serial clustering of extratropical cyclones over the North Atlantic and Europe under recent and future climate conditions |
title_short |
Serial clustering of extratropical cyclones over the North Atlantic and Europe under recent and future climate conditions |
title_full |
Serial clustering of extratropical cyclones over the North Atlantic and Europe under recent and future climate conditions |
title_fullStr |
Serial clustering of extratropical cyclones over the North Atlantic and Europe under recent and future climate conditions |
title_full_unstemmed |
Serial clustering of extratropical cyclones over the North Atlantic and Europe under recent and future climate conditions |
title_sort |
serial clustering of extratropical cyclones over the north atlantic and europe under recent and future climate conditions |
publisher |
American Geophysical Union |
publishDate |
2013 |
url |
https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/35545/ https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/35545/1/Pinto_2013_pbkd_jgra.pdf https://doi.org/10.1002/2013JD020564 |
genre |
Newfoundland North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
Newfoundland North Atlantic |
op_relation |
https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/35545/1/Pinto_2013_pbkd_jgra.pdf Pinto, J. G. <https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/view/creators/90005193.html>, Bellenbaum, N., Karremann, M. K. and Della-Marta, P. M. (2013) Serial clustering of extratropical cyclones over the North Atlantic and Europe under recent and future climate conditions. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 118 (22). 12,476-12,485. ISSN 2169-8996 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/2013JD020564 <https://doi.org/10.1002/2013JD020564> |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1002/2013JD020564 |
container_title |
Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres |
container_volume |
118 |
container_issue |
22 |
container_start_page |
12,476 |
op_container_end_page |
12,485 |
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1802647068804644864 |