Flow-dependent predictability of the North Atlantic Jet
The North Atlantic eddy-driven jet is a major component of the large-scale flow in the northern hemisphere. Here we present evidence from reanalysis and ensemble forecast data for systematic flow-dependent predictability of the jet during northern hemisphere winter (DJF). It is found that when the j...
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Wiley on behalf of the American Geophysical Union
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ftunivreading:oai:centaur.reading.ac.uk:32207 2024-06-23T07:54:57+00:00 Flow-dependent predictability of the North Atlantic Jet Frame, T.H.A. Methven, J. Gray, S.L. Ambaum, M.H.P. 2013-05-28 text https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/32207/ https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/32207/1/grl50454.pdf en eng Wiley on behalf of the American Geophysical Union https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/32207/1/grl50454.pdf Frame, T.H.A. <https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/view/creators/90000647.html> orcid:0000-0001-6542-2173 , Methven, J. <https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/view/creators/90000334.html> orcid:0000-0002-7636-6872 , Gray, S.L. <https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/view/creators/90000250.html> orcid:0000-0001-8658-362X and Ambaum, M.H.P. <https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/view/creators/90000224.html> orcid:0000-0002-6824-8083 (2013) Flow-dependent predictability of the North Atlantic Jet. Geophysical Research Letters, 40 (10). pp. 2411-2416. ISSN 1944-8007 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/grl.50454 <https://doi.org/10.1002/grl.50454> Article PeerReviewed 2013 ftunivreading https://doi.org/10.1002/grl.50454 2024-06-11T14:59:15Z The North Atlantic eddy-driven jet is a major component of the large-scale flow in the northern hemisphere. Here we present evidence from reanalysis and ensemble forecast data for systematic flow-dependent predictability of the jet during northern hemisphere winter (DJF). It is found that when the jet is weakened or split it is both less persistent and less predictable. The lack of predictability manifests itself as the onset of an anomalously large instantaneous rate of spread of ensemble forecast members as the jet becomes weakened. This suggests that as the jet weakens or splits it enters into a state more sensitive to small differences between ensemble forecast members, rather like the sensitive region between the wings of the Lorenz attractor. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic CentAUR: Central Archive at the University of Reading Geophysical Research Letters 40 10 2411 2416 |
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Open Polar |
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CentAUR: Central Archive at the University of Reading |
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ftunivreading |
language |
English |
description |
The North Atlantic eddy-driven jet is a major component of the large-scale flow in the northern hemisphere. Here we present evidence from reanalysis and ensemble forecast data for systematic flow-dependent predictability of the jet during northern hemisphere winter (DJF). It is found that when the jet is weakened or split it is both less persistent and less predictable. The lack of predictability manifests itself as the onset of an anomalously large instantaneous rate of spread of ensemble forecast members as the jet becomes weakened. This suggests that as the jet weakens or splits it enters into a state more sensitive to small differences between ensemble forecast members, rather like the sensitive region between the wings of the Lorenz attractor. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Frame, T.H.A. Methven, J. Gray, S.L. Ambaum, M.H.P. |
spellingShingle |
Frame, T.H.A. Methven, J. Gray, S.L. Ambaum, M.H.P. Flow-dependent predictability of the North Atlantic Jet |
author_facet |
Frame, T.H.A. Methven, J. Gray, S.L. Ambaum, M.H.P. |
author_sort |
Frame, T.H.A. |
title |
Flow-dependent predictability of the North Atlantic Jet |
title_short |
Flow-dependent predictability of the North Atlantic Jet |
title_full |
Flow-dependent predictability of the North Atlantic Jet |
title_fullStr |
Flow-dependent predictability of the North Atlantic Jet |
title_full_unstemmed |
Flow-dependent predictability of the North Atlantic Jet |
title_sort |
flow-dependent predictability of the north atlantic jet |
publisher |
Wiley on behalf of the American Geophysical Union |
publishDate |
2013 |
url |
https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/32207/ https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/32207/1/grl50454.pdf |
genre |
North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic |
op_relation |
https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/32207/1/grl50454.pdf Frame, T.H.A. <https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/view/creators/90000647.html> orcid:0000-0001-6542-2173 , Methven, J. <https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/view/creators/90000334.html> orcid:0000-0002-7636-6872 , Gray, S.L. <https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/view/creators/90000250.html> orcid:0000-0001-8658-362X and Ambaum, M.H.P. <https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/view/creators/90000224.html> orcid:0000-0002-6824-8083 (2013) Flow-dependent predictability of the North Atlantic Jet. Geophysical Research Letters, 40 (10). pp. 2411-2416. ISSN 1944-8007 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/grl.50454 <https://doi.org/10.1002/grl.50454> |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1002/grl.50454 |
container_title |
Geophysical Research Letters |
container_volume |
40 |
container_issue |
10 |
container_start_page |
2411 |
op_container_end_page |
2416 |
_version_ |
1802647299781820416 |