Recent Glacier Retreat Exceeds Internal Variability
Glacier fluctuations exclusively due to internal variations in the climate system are simulated using downscaled integrations of the ECHAM4/OPYC coupled general circulation model (GCM). A process-based modeling approach using a mass balance model of intermediate complexity and a dynamic ice flow mod...
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ftunivreading:oai:centaur.reading.ac.uk:31657 2024-06-23T07:53:03+00:00 Recent Glacier Retreat Exceeds Internal Variability Reichert, B. K. Bengtsson, Lennart Oerlemans, J. 2002 https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/31657/ https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2002)015<3069:RGREIV>2.0.CO;2 unknown Reichert, B. K., Bengtsson, L. <https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/view/creators/90000798.html> and Oerlemans, J. (2002) Recent Glacier Retreat Exceeds Internal Variability. Journal of Climate, 15 (21). pp. 3069-3081. ISSN 0894-8755 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2002)015<3069:RGREIV>2.0.CO;2 <https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2002)015<3069:RGREIV>2.0.CO;2> Article PeerReviewed 2002 ftunivreading https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2002)015<3069:RGREIV>2.0.CO;2 2024-06-11T14:59:15Z Glacier fluctuations exclusively due to internal variations in the climate system are simulated using downscaled integrations of the ECHAM4/OPYC coupled general circulation model (GCM). A process-based modeling approach using a mass balance model of intermediate complexity and a dynamic ice flow model considering simple shearing flow and sliding are applied. Multimillennia records of glacier length fluctuations for Nigardsbreen (Norway) and Rhonegletscher (Switzerland) are simulated using autoregressive processes determined by statistically downscaled GCM experiments. Return periods and probabilities of specific glacier length changes using GCM integrations excluding external forcings such as solar irradiation changes, volcanic, or anthropogenic effects are analyzed and compared to historical glacier length records. Preindustrial fluctuations of the glaciers as far as observed or reconstructed, including their advance during the “Little Ice Age,” can be explained by internal variability in the climate system as represented by a GCM. However, fluctuations comparable to the present-day glacier retreat exceed any variation simulated by the GCM control experiments and must be caused by external forcing, with anthropogenic forcing being a likely candidate. Article in Journal/Newspaper glacier CentAUR: Central Archive at the University of Reading Norway |
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CentAUR: Central Archive at the University of Reading |
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ftunivreading |
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description |
Glacier fluctuations exclusively due to internal variations in the climate system are simulated using downscaled integrations of the ECHAM4/OPYC coupled general circulation model (GCM). A process-based modeling approach using a mass balance model of intermediate complexity and a dynamic ice flow model considering simple shearing flow and sliding are applied. Multimillennia records of glacier length fluctuations for Nigardsbreen (Norway) and Rhonegletscher (Switzerland) are simulated using autoregressive processes determined by statistically downscaled GCM experiments. Return periods and probabilities of specific glacier length changes using GCM integrations excluding external forcings such as solar irradiation changes, volcanic, or anthropogenic effects are analyzed and compared to historical glacier length records. Preindustrial fluctuations of the glaciers as far as observed or reconstructed, including their advance during the “Little Ice Age,” can be explained by internal variability in the climate system as represented by a GCM. However, fluctuations comparable to the present-day glacier retreat exceed any variation simulated by the GCM control experiments and must be caused by external forcing, with anthropogenic forcing being a likely candidate. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Reichert, B. K. Bengtsson, Lennart Oerlemans, J. |
spellingShingle |
Reichert, B. K. Bengtsson, Lennart Oerlemans, J. Recent Glacier Retreat Exceeds Internal Variability |
author_facet |
Reichert, B. K. Bengtsson, Lennart Oerlemans, J. |
author_sort |
Reichert, B. K. |
title |
Recent Glacier Retreat Exceeds Internal Variability |
title_short |
Recent Glacier Retreat Exceeds Internal Variability |
title_full |
Recent Glacier Retreat Exceeds Internal Variability |
title_fullStr |
Recent Glacier Retreat Exceeds Internal Variability |
title_full_unstemmed |
Recent Glacier Retreat Exceeds Internal Variability |
title_sort |
recent glacier retreat exceeds internal variability |
publishDate |
2002 |
url |
https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/31657/ https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2002)015<3069:RGREIV>2.0.CO;2 |
geographic |
Norway |
geographic_facet |
Norway |
genre |
glacier |
genre_facet |
glacier |
op_relation |
Reichert, B. K., Bengtsson, L. <https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/view/creators/90000798.html> and Oerlemans, J. (2002) Recent Glacier Retreat Exceeds Internal Variability. Journal of Climate, 15 (21). pp. 3069-3081. ISSN 0894-8755 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2002)015<3069:RGREIV>2.0.CO;2 <https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2002)015<3069:RGREIV>2.0.CO;2> |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2002)015<3069:RGREIV>2.0.CO;2 |
_version_ |
1802644538418790400 |