Decadal to multidecadal variability and the climate change background
Three prominent quasi-global patterns of variability and change are observed using the Met Office's sea surface temperature (SST) analysis and almost independent night marine air temperature analysis. The first is a global warming signal that is very highly correlated with global mean SST. The...
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ftunivreading:oai:centaur.reading.ac.uk:29480 2024-09-15T18:23:47+00:00 Decadal to multidecadal variability and the climate change background Parker, David Folland, Chris Scaife, Adam Knight, Jeff Colman, Andrew Baines, Peter Dong, Buwen 2007 text https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/29480/ https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/29480/1/Parker_etal_2007JD008411.pdf http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2007/2007JD008411.shtml en eng American Geophysical Union https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/29480/1/Parker_etal_2007JD008411.pdf Parker, D., Folland, C., Scaife, A., Knight, J., Colman, A., Baines, P. and Dong, B. <https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/view/creators/90000933.html> orcid:0000-0003-0809-7911 (2007) Decadal to multidecadal variability and the climate change background. Journal of Geophysical Research, 112. D18115. ISSN 0148-0227 doi: https://doi.org/10.1029/2007JD008411 <https://doi.org/10.1029/2007JD008411> Article PeerReviewed 2007 ftunivreading https://doi.org/10.1029/2007JD008411 2024-08-12T23:43:15Z Three prominent quasi-global patterns of variability and change are observed using the Met Office's sea surface temperature (SST) analysis and almost independent night marine air temperature analysis. The first is a global warming signal that is very highly correlated with global mean SST. The second is a decadal to multidecadal fluctuation with some geographical similarity to the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). It is associated with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and its Pacific-wide manifestation has been termed the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO). We present model investigations of the relationship between the IPO and ENSO. The third mode is an interhemispheric variation on multidecadal timescales which, in view of climate model experiments, is likely to be at least partly due to natural variations in the thermohaline circulation. Observed climatic impacts of this mode also appear in model simulations. Smaller-scale, regional atmospheric phenomena also affect climate on decadal to interdecadal timescales. We concentrate on one such mode, the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). This shows strong decadal to interdecadal variability and a correspondingly strong influence on surface climate variability which is largely additional to the effects of recent regional anthropogenic climate change. The winter NAO is likely influenced by both SST forcing and stratospheric variability. A full understanding of decadal changes in the NAO and European winter climate may require a detailed representation of the stratosphere that is hitherto missing in the major climate models used to study climate change. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation CentAUR: Central Archive at the University of Reading Journal of Geophysical Research 112 D18 |
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Open Polar |
collection |
CentAUR: Central Archive at the University of Reading |
op_collection_id |
ftunivreading |
language |
English |
description |
Three prominent quasi-global patterns of variability and change are observed using the Met Office's sea surface temperature (SST) analysis and almost independent night marine air temperature analysis. The first is a global warming signal that is very highly correlated with global mean SST. The second is a decadal to multidecadal fluctuation with some geographical similarity to the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). It is associated with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and its Pacific-wide manifestation has been termed the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO). We present model investigations of the relationship between the IPO and ENSO. The third mode is an interhemispheric variation on multidecadal timescales which, in view of climate model experiments, is likely to be at least partly due to natural variations in the thermohaline circulation. Observed climatic impacts of this mode also appear in model simulations. Smaller-scale, regional atmospheric phenomena also affect climate on decadal to interdecadal timescales. We concentrate on one such mode, the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). This shows strong decadal to interdecadal variability and a correspondingly strong influence on surface climate variability which is largely additional to the effects of recent regional anthropogenic climate change. The winter NAO is likely influenced by both SST forcing and stratospheric variability. A full understanding of decadal changes in the NAO and European winter climate may require a detailed representation of the stratosphere that is hitherto missing in the major climate models used to study climate change. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Parker, David Folland, Chris Scaife, Adam Knight, Jeff Colman, Andrew Baines, Peter Dong, Buwen |
spellingShingle |
Parker, David Folland, Chris Scaife, Adam Knight, Jeff Colman, Andrew Baines, Peter Dong, Buwen Decadal to multidecadal variability and the climate change background |
author_facet |
Parker, David Folland, Chris Scaife, Adam Knight, Jeff Colman, Andrew Baines, Peter Dong, Buwen |
author_sort |
Parker, David |
title |
Decadal to multidecadal variability and the climate change background |
title_short |
Decadal to multidecadal variability and the climate change background |
title_full |
Decadal to multidecadal variability and the climate change background |
title_fullStr |
Decadal to multidecadal variability and the climate change background |
title_full_unstemmed |
Decadal to multidecadal variability and the climate change background |
title_sort |
decadal to multidecadal variability and the climate change background |
publisher |
American Geophysical Union |
publishDate |
2007 |
url |
https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/29480/ https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/29480/1/Parker_etal_2007JD008411.pdf http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2007/2007JD008411.shtml |
genre |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
op_relation |
https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/29480/1/Parker_etal_2007JD008411.pdf Parker, D., Folland, C., Scaife, A., Knight, J., Colman, A., Baines, P. and Dong, B. <https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/view/creators/90000933.html> orcid:0000-0003-0809-7911 (2007) Decadal to multidecadal variability and the climate change background. Journal of Geophysical Research, 112. D18115. ISSN 0148-0227 doi: https://doi.org/10.1029/2007JD008411 <https://doi.org/10.1029/2007JD008411> |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1029/2007JD008411 |
container_title |
Journal of Geophysical Research |
container_volume |
112 |
container_issue |
D18 |
_version_ |
1810464048437788672 |