Ocean heat uptake and its consequences for the magnitude of sea level rise and climate change
Under increasing greenhouse gas concentrations, ocean heat uptake moderates the rate of climate change, and thermal expansion makes a substantial contribution to sea level rise. In this paper we quantify the differences in projections among atmosphere-ocean general circulation models of the Coupled...
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ftunivreading:oai:centaur.reading.ac.uk:28951 2024-06-23T07:55:13+00:00 Ocean heat uptake and its consequences for the magnitude of sea level rise and climate change Kuhlbrodt, Till Gregory, Jonathan 2012-08-13 text https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/28951/ https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/28951/7/grl29529.pdf https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/28951/1/Kuhlbrodt_Gregory_GRL_2012.pdf en eng American Geophysical Union https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/28951/7/grl29529.pdf https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/28951/1/Kuhlbrodt_Gregory_GRL_2012.pdf Kuhlbrodt, T. <https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/view/creators/90000754.html> orcid:0000-0003-2328-6729 and Gregory, J. <https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/view/creators/90000874.html> orcid:0000-0003-1296-8644 (2012) Ocean heat uptake and its consequences for the magnitude of sea level rise and climate change. Geophysical Research Letters, 39 (18). L18608. ISSN 1944-8007 doi: https://doi.org/10.1029/2012GL052952 <https://doi.org/10.1029/2012GL052952> Article PeerReviewed 2012 ftunivreading https://doi.org/10.1029/2012GL052952 2024-06-11T14:57:06Z Under increasing greenhouse gas concentrations, ocean heat uptake moderates the rate of climate change, and thermal expansion makes a substantial contribution to sea level rise. In this paper we quantify the differences in projections among atmosphere-ocean general circulation models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project in terms of transient climate response, ocean heat uptake efficiency and expansion efficiency of heat. The CMIP3 and CMIP5 ensembles have statistically indistinguishable distributions in these parameters. The ocean heat uptake efficiency varies by a factor of two across the models, explaining about 50% of the spread in ocean heat uptake in CMIP5 models with CO2 increasing at 1%/year. It correlates with the ocean global-mean vertical profiles both of temperature and of temperature change, and comparison with observations suggests the models may overestimate ocean heat uptake and underestimate surface warming, because their stratification is too weak. The models agree on the location of maxima of shallow ocean heat uptake (above 700 m) in the Southern Ocean and the North Atlantic, and on deep ocean heat uptake (below 2000 m) in areas of the Southern Ocean, in some places amounting to 40% of the top-to-bottom integral in the CMIP3 SRES A1B scenario. The Southern Ocean dominates global ocean heat uptake; consequently the eddy-induced thickness diffusivity parameter, which is particularly influential in the Southern Ocean, correlates with the ocean heat uptake efficiency. The thermal expansion produced by ocean heat uptake is 0.12 m YJ−1, with an uncertainty of about 10% (1 YJ = 1024 J). Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic Southern Ocean CentAUR: Central Archive at the University of Reading Southern Ocean Geophysical Research Letters 39 18 |
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CentAUR: Central Archive at the University of Reading |
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ftunivreading |
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English |
description |
Under increasing greenhouse gas concentrations, ocean heat uptake moderates the rate of climate change, and thermal expansion makes a substantial contribution to sea level rise. In this paper we quantify the differences in projections among atmosphere-ocean general circulation models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project in terms of transient climate response, ocean heat uptake efficiency and expansion efficiency of heat. The CMIP3 and CMIP5 ensembles have statistically indistinguishable distributions in these parameters. The ocean heat uptake efficiency varies by a factor of two across the models, explaining about 50% of the spread in ocean heat uptake in CMIP5 models with CO2 increasing at 1%/year. It correlates with the ocean global-mean vertical profiles both of temperature and of temperature change, and comparison with observations suggests the models may overestimate ocean heat uptake and underestimate surface warming, because their stratification is too weak. The models agree on the location of maxima of shallow ocean heat uptake (above 700 m) in the Southern Ocean and the North Atlantic, and on deep ocean heat uptake (below 2000 m) in areas of the Southern Ocean, in some places amounting to 40% of the top-to-bottom integral in the CMIP3 SRES A1B scenario. The Southern Ocean dominates global ocean heat uptake; consequently the eddy-induced thickness diffusivity parameter, which is particularly influential in the Southern Ocean, correlates with the ocean heat uptake efficiency. The thermal expansion produced by ocean heat uptake is 0.12 m YJ−1, with an uncertainty of about 10% (1 YJ = 1024 J). |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Kuhlbrodt, Till Gregory, Jonathan |
spellingShingle |
Kuhlbrodt, Till Gregory, Jonathan Ocean heat uptake and its consequences for the magnitude of sea level rise and climate change |
author_facet |
Kuhlbrodt, Till Gregory, Jonathan |
author_sort |
Kuhlbrodt, Till |
title |
Ocean heat uptake and its consequences for the magnitude of sea level rise and climate change |
title_short |
Ocean heat uptake and its consequences for the magnitude of sea level rise and climate change |
title_full |
Ocean heat uptake and its consequences for the magnitude of sea level rise and climate change |
title_fullStr |
Ocean heat uptake and its consequences for the magnitude of sea level rise and climate change |
title_full_unstemmed |
Ocean heat uptake and its consequences for the magnitude of sea level rise and climate change |
title_sort |
ocean heat uptake and its consequences for the magnitude of sea level rise and climate change |
publisher |
American Geophysical Union |
publishDate |
2012 |
url |
https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/28951/ https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/28951/7/grl29529.pdf https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/28951/1/Kuhlbrodt_Gregory_GRL_2012.pdf |
geographic |
Southern Ocean |
geographic_facet |
Southern Ocean |
genre |
North Atlantic Southern Ocean |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic Southern Ocean |
op_relation |
https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/28951/7/grl29529.pdf https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/28951/1/Kuhlbrodt_Gregory_GRL_2012.pdf Kuhlbrodt, T. <https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/view/creators/90000754.html> orcid:0000-0003-2328-6729 and Gregory, J. <https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/view/creators/90000874.html> orcid:0000-0003-1296-8644 (2012) Ocean heat uptake and its consequences for the magnitude of sea level rise and climate change. Geophysical Research Letters, 39 (18). L18608. ISSN 1944-8007 doi: https://doi.org/10.1029/2012GL052952 <https://doi.org/10.1029/2012GL052952> |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1029/2012GL052952 |
container_title |
Geophysical Research Letters |
container_volume |
39 |
container_issue |
18 |
_version_ |
1802647712465682432 |