An Integrated Assessment of changes in the thermohaline circulation
This paper discusses the risks of a shutdown of the thermohaline circulation (THC) for the climate system, for ecosystems in and around the North Atlantic as well as for fisheries and agriculture by way of an Integrated Assessment. The climate model simulations are based on greenhouse gas scenarios...
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ftunivreading:oai:centaur.reading.ac.uk:1943 2024-06-23T07:54:50+00:00 An Integrated Assessment of changes in the thermohaline circulation Kuhlbrodt, Till Rahmstorf, Stefan Zickfeld, Kirsten Vikebø, Frode Bendiksen Sundby, Svein Hofmann, Matthias Link, Peter Michael Bondeau, Alberte Cramer, Wolfgang Jaeger, Carlo 2009-10 https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/1943/ https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-009-9561-y unknown Springer Netherlands Kuhlbrodt, T. <https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/view/creators/90000754.html> orcid:0000-0003-2328-6729 , Rahmstorf, S., Zickfeld, K., Vikebø, F. B., Sundby, S., Hofmann, M., Link, P. M., Bondeau, A., Cramer, W. and Jaeger, C. (2009) An Integrated Assessment of changes in the thermohaline circulation. Climatic Change, 96 (4). pp. 489-537. ISSN 1573-1480 doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-009-9561-y <https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-009-9561-y> 554 Earth sciences of Europe 551 Geology hydrology meteorology Article PeerReviewed 2009 ftunivreading https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-009-9561-y 2024-06-11T14:41:45Z This paper discusses the risks of a shutdown of the thermohaline circulation (THC) for the climate system, for ecosystems in and around the North Atlantic as well as for fisheries and agriculture by way of an Integrated Assessment. The climate model simulations are based on greenhouse gas scenarios for the 21st century and beyond. A shutdown of the THC, complete by 2150, is triggered if increased freshwater input from inland ice melt or enhanced runoff is assumed. The shutdown retards the greenhouse gas-induced atmospheric warming trend in the Northern Hemisphere, but does not lead to a persistent net cooling. Due to the simulated THC shutdown the sea level at the North Atlantic shores rises by up to 80 cm by 2150, in addition to the global sea level rise. This could potentially be a serious impact that requires expensive coastal protection measures. A reduction of marine net primary productivity is associated with the impacts of warming rather than a THC shutdown. Regional shifts in the currents in the Nordic Seas could strongly deteriorate survival chances for cod larvae and juveniles. This could lead to cod fisheries becoming unprofitable by the end of the 21st century. While regional socioeconomic impacts might be large, damages would be probably small in relation to the respective gross national products. Terrestrial ecosystem productivity is affected much more by the fertilization from the increasing CO2 concentration than by a THC shutdown. In addition, the level of warming in the 22nd to 24th century favours crop production in northern Europe a lot, no matter whether the THC shuts down or not. CO2 emissions corridors aimed at limiting the risk of a THC breakdown to 10% or less are narrow, requiring departure from business-as-usual in the next few decades. The uncertainty about THC risks is still high. This is seen in model analyses as well as in the experts’ views that were elicited. The overview of results presented here is the outcome of the Integrated Assessment project INTEGRATION. Article in Journal/Newspaper Nordic Seas North Atlantic CentAUR: Central Archive at the University of Reading Climatic Change 96 4 489 537 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
CentAUR: Central Archive at the University of Reading |
op_collection_id |
ftunivreading |
language |
unknown |
topic |
554 Earth sciences of Europe 551 Geology hydrology meteorology |
spellingShingle |
554 Earth sciences of Europe 551 Geology hydrology meteorology Kuhlbrodt, Till Rahmstorf, Stefan Zickfeld, Kirsten Vikebø, Frode Bendiksen Sundby, Svein Hofmann, Matthias Link, Peter Michael Bondeau, Alberte Cramer, Wolfgang Jaeger, Carlo An Integrated Assessment of changes in the thermohaline circulation |
topic_facet |
554 Earth sciences of Europe 551 Geology hydrology meteorology |
description |
This paper discusses the risks of a shutdown of the thermohaline circulation (THC) for the climate system, for ecosystems in and around the North Atlantic as well as for fisheries and agriculture by way of an Integrated Assessment. The climate model simulations are based on greenhouse gas scenarios for the 21st century and beyond. A shutdown of the THC, complete by 2150, is triggered if increased freshwater input from inland ice melt or enhanced runoff is assumed. The shutdown retards the greenhouse gas-induced atmospheric warming trend in the Northern Hemisphere, but does not lead to a persistent net cooling. Due to the simulated THC shutdown the sea level at the North Atlantic shores rises by up to 80 cm by 2150, in addition to the global sea level rise. This could potentially be a serious impact that requires expensive coastal protection measures. A reduction of marine net primary productivity is associated with the impacts of warming rather than a THC shutdown. Regional shifts in the currents in the Nordic Seas could strongly deteriorate survival chances for cod larvae and juveniles. This could lead to cod fisheries becoming unprofitable by the end of the 21st century. While regional socioeconomic impacts might be large, damages would be probably small in relation to the respective gross national products. Terrestrial ecosystem productivity is affected much more by the fertilization from the increasing CO2 concentration than by a THC shutdown. In addition, the level of warming in the 22nd to 24th century favours crop production in northern Europe a lot, no matter whether the THC shuts down or not. CO2 emissions corridors aimed at limiting the risk of a THC breakdown to 10% or less are narrow, requiring departure from business-as-usual in the next few decades. The uncertainty about THC risks is still high. This is seen in model analyses as well as in the experts’ views that were elicited. The overview of results presented here is the outcome of the Integrated Assessment project INTEGRATION. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Kuhlbrodt, Till Rahmstorf, Stefan Zickfeld, Kirsten Vikebø, Frode Bendiksen Sundby, Svein Hofmann, Matthias Link, Peter Michael Bondeau, Alberte Cramer, Wolfgang Jaeger, Carlo |
author_facet |
Kuhlbrodt, Till Rahmstorf, Stefan Zickfeld, Kirsten Vikebø, Frode Bendiksen Sundby, Svein Hofmann, Matthias Link, Peter Michael Bondeau, Alberte Cramer, Wolfgang Jaeger, Carlo |
author_sort |
Kuhlbrodt, Till |
title |
An Integrated Assessment of changes in the thermohaline circulation |
title_short |
An Integrated Assessment of changes in the thermohaline circulation |
title_full |
An Integrated Assessment of changes in the thermohaline circulation |
title_fullStr |
An Integrated Assessment of changes in the thermohaline circulation |
title_full_unstemmed |
An Integrated Assessment of changes in the thermohaline circulation |
title_sort |
integrated assessment of changes in the thermohaline circulation |
publisher |
Springer Netherlands |
publishDate |
2009 |
url |
https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/1943/ https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-009-9561-y |
genre |
Nordic Seas North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
Nordic Seas North Atlantic |
op_relation |
Kuhlbrodt, T. <https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/view/creators/90000754.html> orcid:0000-0003-2328-6729 , Rahmstorf, S., Zickfeld, K., Vikebø, F. B., Sundby, S., Hofmann, M., Link, P. M., Bondeau, A., Cramer, W. and Jaeger, C. (2009) An Integrated Assessment of changes in the thermohaline circulation. Climatic Change, 96 (4). pp. 489-537. ISSN 1573-1480 doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-009-9561-y <https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-009-9561-y> |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-009-9561-y |
container_title |
Climatic Change |
container_volume |
96 |
container_issue |
4 |
container_start_page |
489 |
op_container_end_page |
537 |
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1802647115773509632 |