Does the North Atlantic Oscillation show unusual persistence on intraseasonal timescales?
Previous studies have argued that the autocorrelation of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index provides evidence of unusually persistent intraseasonal dynamics. We demonstrate that the autocorrelation on intraseasonal time-scales of 10–30 days is sensitive to the presence of interannual...
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ftunivreading:oai:centaur.reading.ac.uk:1765 2024-09-09T19:55:26+00:00 Does the North Atlantic Oscillation show unusual persistence on intraseasonal timescales? Keeley, Sarah Patricia Emma Sutton, Rowan Timothy Shaffrey, Leonard Christopher 2009-11-26 https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/1765/ http://www.agu.org/journals/gl/gl0922/2009GL040367/ unknown American Geophysical Union Keeley, S. P. E. <https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/view/creators/90000663.html>, Sutton, R. T. <https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/view/creators/90000057.html> orcid:0000-0001-8345-8583 and Shaffrey, L. C. <https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/view/creators/90000111.html> orcid:0000-0003-2696-752X (2009) Does the North Atlantic Oscillation show unusual persistence on intraseasonal timescales? Geophysical Research Letters, 36. L22706. ISSN 0094-8276 doi: https://doi.org/10.1029/2009GL040367 <https://doi.org/10.1029/2009GL040367> 551 Geology hydrology meteorology Article PeerReviewed 2009 ftunivreading 2024-06-25T14:39:27Z Previous studies have argued that the autocorrelation of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index provides evidence of unusually persistent intraseasonal dynamics. We demonstrate that the autocorrelation on intraseasonal time-scales of 10–30 days is sensitive to the presence of interannual variability, part of which arises from the sampling of intraseasonal variability and the remainder of which we consider to be “externally forced”. Modelling the intraseasonal variability of the NAO as a red noise process we estimate, for winter, ~70% of the interannual variability is externally forced, whereas for summer sampling accounts for almost all of the interannual variability. Correcting for the externally forced interannual variability has a major impact on the autocorrelation function for winter. When externally forced interannual variability is taken into account the intrinsic persistence of the NAO is very similar in summer and winter (~5 days). This finding has implications for understanding the dynamics of the NAO. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation CentAUR: Central Archive at the University of Reading |
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551 Geology hydrology meteorology |
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551 Geology hydrology meteorology Keeley, Sarah Patricia Emma Sutton, Rowan Timothy Shaffrey, Leonard Christopher Does the North Atlantic Oscillation show unusual persistence on intraseasonal timescales? |
topic_facet |
551 Geology hydrology meteorology |
description |
Previous studies have argued that the autocorrelation of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index provides evidence of unusually persistent intraseasonal dynamics. We demonstrate that the autocorrelation on intraseasonal time-scales of 10–30 days is sensitive to the presence of interannual variability, part of which arises from the sampling of intraseasonal variability and the remainder of which we consider to be “externally forced”. Modelling the intraseasonal variability of the NAO as a red noise process we estimate, for winter, ~70% of the interannual variability is externally forced, whereas for summer sampling accounts for almost all of the interannual variability. Correcting for the externally forced interannual variability has a major impact on the autocorrelation function for winter. When externally forced interannual variability is taken into account the intrinsic persistence of the NAO is very similar in summer and winter (~5 days). This finding has implications for understanding the dynamics of the NAO. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Keeley, Sarah Patricia Emma Sutton, Rowan Timothy Shaffrey, Leonard Christopher |
author_facet |
Keeley, Sarah Patricia Emma Sutton, Rowan Timothy Shaffrey, Leonard Christopher |
author_sort |
Keeley, Sarah Patricia Emma |
title |
Does the North Atlantic Oscillation show unusual persistence on intraseasonal timescales? |
title_short |
Does the North Atlantic Oscillation show unusual persistence on intraseasonal timescales? |
title_full |
Does the North Atlantic Oscillation show unusual persistence on intraseasonal timescales? |
title_fullStr |
Does the North Atlantic Oscillation show unusual persistence on intraseasonal timescales? |
title_full_unstemmed |
Does the North Atlantic Oscillation show unusual persistence on intraseasonal timescales? |
title_sort |
does the north atlantic oscillation show unusual persistence on intraseasonal timescales? |
publisher |
American Geophysical Union |
publishDate |
2009 |
url |
https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/1765/ http://www.agu.org/journals/gl/gl0922/2009GL040367/ |
genre |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
op_relation |
Keeley, S. P. E. <https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/view/creators/90000663.html>, Sutton, R. T. <https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/view/creators/90000057.html> orcid:0000-0001-8345-8583 and Shaffrey, L. C. <https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/view/creators/90000111.html> orcid:0000-0003-2696-752X (2009) Does the North Atlantic Oscillation show unusual persistence on intraseasonal timescales? Geophysical Research Letters, 36. L22706. ISSN 0094-8276 doi: https://doi.org/10.1029/2009GL040367 <https://doi.org/10.1029/2009GL040367> |
_version_ |
1809925224133558272 |