Estimating climatically relevant singular vectors for decadal predictions of the Atlantic Ocean
A key aspect in designing an ecient decadal prediction system is ensuring that the uncertainty in the ocean initial conditions is sampled optimally. Here, we consider one strategy to address this issue by investigating the growth of optimal perturbations in the HadCM3 global climate model (GCM). Mor...
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Online Access: | https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/16486/ https://doi.org/10.1175/2010JCLI3579.1 |
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ftunivreading:oai:centaur.reading.ac.uk:16486 2024-06-23T07:55:09+00:00 Estimating climatically relevant singular vectors for decadal predictions of the Atlantic Ocean Hawkins, Edward Sutton, Rowan 2011-01 https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/16486/ https://doi.org/10.1175/2010JCLI3579.1 unknown American Meteorological Society Hawkins, E. <https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/view/creators/90000949.html> orcid:0000-0001-9477-3677 and Sutton, R. <https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/view/creators/90000057.html> orcid:0000-0001-8345-8583 (2011) Estimating climatically relevant singular vectors for decadal predictions of the Atlantic Ocean. Journal of Climate, 24 (1). pp. 109-123. ISSN 1520-0442 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/2010JCLI3579.1 <https://doi.org/10.1175/2010JCLI3579.1> Article PeerReviewed 2011 ftunivreading https://doi.org/10.1175/2010JCLI3579.1 2024-06-11T14:54:05Z A key aspect in designing an ecient decadal prediction system is ensuring that the uncertainty in the ocean initial conditions is sampled optimally. Here, we consider one strategy to address this issue by investigating the growth of optimal perturbations in the HadCM3 global climate model (GCM). More specically, climatically relevant singular vectors (CSVs) - the small perturbations which grow most rapidly for a specic initial condition - are estimated for decadal timescales in the Atlantic Ocean. It is found that reliable CSVs can be estimated by running a large ensemble of integrations of the GCM. Amplication of the optimal perturbations occurs for more than 10 years, and possibly up to 40 years. The identi ed regions for growing perturbations are found to be in the far North Atlantic, and these perturbations cause amplication through an anomalous meridional overturning circulation response. Additionally, this type of analysis potentially informs the design of future ocean observing systems by identifying the sensitive regions where small uncertainties in the ocean state can grow maximally. Although these CSVs are expensive to compute, we identify ways in which the process could be made more ecient in the future. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic CentAUR: Central Archive at the University of Reading Journal of Climate 24 1 109 123 |
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CentAUR: Central Archive at the University of Reading |
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ftunivreading |
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A key aspect in designing an ecient decadal prediction system is ensuring that the uncertainty in the ocean initial conditions is sampled optimally. Here, we consider one strategy to address this issue by investigating the growth of optimal perturbations in the HadCM3 global climate model (GCM). More specically, climatically relevant singular vectors (CSVs) - the small perturbations which grow most rapidly for a specic initial condition - are estimated for decadal timescales in the Atlantic Ocean. It is found that reliable CSVs can be estimated by running a large ensemble of integrations of the GCM. Amplication of the optimal perturbations occurs for more than 10 years, and possibly up to 40 years. The identi ed regions for growing perturbations are found to be in the far North Atlantic, and these perturbations cause amplication through an anomalous meridional overturning circulation response. Additionally, this type of analysis potentially informs the design of future ocean observing systems by identifying the sensitive regions where small uncertainties in the ocean state can grow maximally. Although these CSVs are expensive to compute, we identify ways in which the process could be made more ecient in the future. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Hawkins, Edward Sutton, Rowan |
spellingShingle |
Hawkins, Edward Sutton, Rowan Estimating climatically relevant singular vectors for decadal predictions of the Atlantic Ocean |
author_facet |
Hawkins, Edward Sutton, Rowan |
author_sort |
Hawkins, Edward |
title |
Estimating climatically relevant singular vectors for decadal predictions of the Atlantic Ocean |
title_short |
Estimating climatically relevant singular vectors for decadal predictions of the Atlantic Ocean |
title_full |
Estimating climatically relevant singular vectors for decadal predictions of the Atlantic Ocean |
title_fullStr |
Estimating climatically relevant singular vectors for decadal predictions of the Atlantic Ocean |
title_full_unstemmed |
Estimating climatically relevant singular vectors for decadal predictions of the Atlantic Ocean |
title_sort |
estimating climatically relevant singular vectors for decadal predictions of the atlantic ocean |
publisher |
American Meteorological Society |
publishDate |
2011 |
url |
https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/16486/ https://doi.org/10.1175/2010JCLI3579.1 |
genre |
North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic |
op_relation |
Hawkins, E. <https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/view/creators/90000949.html> orcid:0000-0001-9477-3677 and Sutton, R. <https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/view/creators/90000057.html> orcid:0000-0001-8345-8583 (2011) Estimating climatically relevant singular vectors for decadal predictions of the Atlantic Ocean. Journal of Climate, 24 (1). pp. 109-123. ISSN 1520-0442 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/2010JCLI3579.1 <https://doi.org/10.1175/2010JCLI3579.1> |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1175/2010JCLI3579.1 |
container_title |
Journal of Climate |
container_volume |
24 |
container_issue |
1 |
container_start_page |
109 |
op_container_end_page |
123 |
_version_ |
1802647604591329280 |