Decreased frequency of North Atlantic polar lows associated with future climate warming
Every winter, the high-latitude oceans are struck by severe storms that are considerably smaller than the weather-dominating synoptic depressions1. Accompanied by strong winds and heavy precipitation, these often explosively developing mesoscale cyclones—termed polar lows1—constitute a threat to off...
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Online Access: | https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/15519/ https://doi.org/10.1038/nature09388 |
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ftunivreading:oai:centaur.reading.ac.uk:15519 2023-09-05T13:21:25+02:00 Decreased frequency of North Atlantic polar lows associated with future climate warming Zahn, Matthias von Storch, Hans 2010-09-16 https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/15519/ https://doi.org/10.1038/nature09388 unknown Nature Publishing Group Zahn, Matthias and von Storch, Hans (2010) Decreased frequency of North Atlantic polar lows associated with future climate warming. Nature, 467 (7313). pp. 309-312. ISSN 0028-0836 doi: https://doi.org/10.1038/nature09388 <https://doi.org/10.1038/nature09388> Article PeerReviewed 2010 ftunivreading https://doi.org/10.1038/nature09388 2023-08-14T17:39:29Z Every winter, the high-latitude oceans are struck by severe storms that are considerably smaller than the weather-dominating synoptic depressions1. Accompanied by strong winds and heavy precipitation, these often explosively developing mesoscale cyclones—termed polar lows1—constitute a threat to offshore activities such as shipping or oil and gas exploitation. Yet owing to their small scale, polar lows are poorly represented in the observational and global reanalysis data2 often used for climatological investigations of atmospheric features and cannot be assessed in coarse-resolution global simulations of possible future climates. Here we show that in a future anthropogenically warmed climate, the frequency of polar lows is projected to decline. We used a series of regional climate model simulations to downscale a set of global climate change scenarios3 from the Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change. In this process, we first simulated the formation of polar low systems in the North Atlantic and then counted the individual cases. A previous study4 using NCEP/NCAR re-analysis data5 revealed that polar low frequency from 1948 to 2005 did not systematically change. Now, in projections for the end of the twenty-first century, we found a significantly lower number of polar lows and a northward shift of their mean genesis region in response to elevated atmospheric greenhouse gas concentration. This change can be related to changes in the North Atlantic sea surface temperature and mid-troposphere temperature; the latter is found to rise faster than the former so that the resulting stability is increased, hindering the formation or intensification of polar lows. Our results provide a rare example of a climate change effect in which a type of extreme weather is likely to decrease, rather than increase. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic CentAUR: Central Archive at the University of Reading Nature 467 7313 309 312 |
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Every winter, the high-latitude oceans are struck by severe storms that are considerably smaller than the weather-dominating synoptic depressions1. Accompanied by strong winds and heavy precipitation, these often explosively developing mesoscale cyclones—termed polar lows1—constitute a threat to offshore activities such as shipping or oil and gas exploitation. Yet owing to their small scale, polar lows are poorly represented in the observational and global reanalysis data2 often used for climatological investigations of atmospheric features and cannot be assessed in coarse-resolution global simulations of possible future climates. Here we show that in a future anthropogenically warmed climate, the frequency of polar lows is projected to decline. We used a series of regional climate model simulations to downscale a set of global climate change scenarios3 from the Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change. In this process, we first simulated the formation of polar low systems in the North Atlantic and then counted the individual cases. A previous study4 using NCEP/NCAR re-analysis data5 revealed that polar low frequency from 1948 to 2005 did not systematically change. Now, in projections for the end of the twenty-first century, we found a significantly lower number of polar lows and a northward shift of their mean genesis region in response to elevated atmospheric greenhouse gas concentration. This change can be related to changes in the North Atlantic sea surface temperature and mid-troposphere temperature; the latter is found to rise faster than the former so that the resulting stability is increased, hindering the formation or intensification of polar lows. Our results provide a rare example of a climate change effect in which a type of extreme weather is likely to decrease, rather than increase. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Zahn, Matthias von Storch, Hans |
spellingShingle |
Zahn, Matthias von Storch, Hans Decreased frequency of North Atlantic polar lows associated with future climate warming |
author_facet |
Zahn, Matthias von Storch, Hans |
author_sort |
Zahn, Matthias |
title |
Decreased frequency of North Atlantic polar lows associated with future climate warming |
title_short |
Decreased frequency of North Atlantic polar lows associated with future climate warming |
title_full |
Decreased frequency of North Atlantic polar lows associated with future climate warming |
title_fullStr |
Decreased frequency of North Atlantic polar lows associated with future climate warming |
title_full_unstemmed |
Decreased frequency of North Atlantic polar lows associated with future climate warming |
title_sort |
decreased frequency of north atlantic polar lows associated with future climate warming |
publisher |
Nature Publishing Group |
publishDate |
2010 |
url |
https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/15519/ https://doi.org/10.1038/nature09388 |
genre |
North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic |
op_relation |
Zahn, Matthias and von Storch, Hans (2010) Decreased frequency of North Atlantic polar lows associated with future climate warming. Nature, 467 (7313). pp. 309-312. ISSN 0028-0836 doi: https://doi.org/10.1038/nature09388 <https://doi.org/10.1038/nature09388> |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1038/nature09388 |
container_title |
Nature |
container_volume |
467 |
container_issue |
7313 |
container_start_page |
309 |
op_container_end_page |
312 |
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1776202024544632832 |